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24
Sept
YouGov poll: See which political party is on course to win in your area
The first YouGov MRP poll since Andy Burnham became Prime Minister has predicted Labour would be the largest party in a hung parliament if an election were held tomorrow.
Today’s (September 24) poll, based on 17,000 views, projects Labour would win 241 seats, the Conservatives 130, Reform UK 123, the Liberal Democrats 71, the SNP 40, Plaid Cymru 15, the Greens 9 and others 3.
But what about locally? Here’s what is currently being forecast for the three seats that include the former Harrogate district.
Tom Gordon
Harrogate and Knaresborough
Although the Lib Dems would lose one MP nationally, the poll predicts Tom Gordon would comfortably retain Harrogate and Knaresborough.
His share of the vote is projected to go down by five points, with the Tory and Reform UK vote both ascending by the same amount.
But neither would come close to mounting a serious challenge to Mr Gordon, who is on course to win by 16 percentage points again.
Here are the projected results, with the 2024 general election percentages in brackets.
Lib Dems 41 (46)
Conservatives 25 (30)
Reform UK 16 (11)
Labour 8 (8)
Greens 6 (3)
Restore 2 (0)
Others 1 (2)
Sir Julian Smith
Skipton and Ripon
Conservative Sir Julian Smith, who has held the seat since 2010, is projected to win it again.
He was widely predicted to lose to Labour on July 4, 2024 but pulled off a narrow victory, and was knighted on the same day.
YouGov MRP forecasts his vote would hold up, and Labour’s would fall. Although Reform is tipped to make ground, Sir Julian’s margin of victory is expected to be wider than last time.
The constituency includes Pateley Bridge and Masham.
Here are the projected results, with the 2024 general election percentages in brackets.
Conservatives 34 (35)
Labour 22 (32)
Reform UK 22 (16)
Greens 10 (6)
Lib Dems 8 (8)
Restore 3 (0)
Other 1 (2)
Sir Alec Shelbrooke
Wetherby and Easingwold
Sir Alec Shelbrooke is on course to easily retain control of the constituency, which was formed in 2024.
The Conservative is projected to again receive almost 40% of the vote, while his nearest challenger two years ago — Labour — is expected to suffer an eight-point decline.
Reform, the Greens and the Lib Dems are all tipped to make small gains, but nowhere near enough to challenge.
Here are the projected results, with the 2024 general election percentages in brackets.
Conservatives 38 (39)
Labour 22 (30)
Reform UK 17 (14)
Greens 10 (9)
Lib Dems 7 (6)
Restore 4 (0)
Others 1 (1)
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