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15
Nov
North Yorkshire Council election 2027: What the latest polls are predicting
It’s six months until voters head to the polls for the local elections — and the campaigning and political polling is hotting up.
Parties from across the political spectrum will be vying for 89 seats on North Yorkshire Council in May 2027.
Currently, no party holds overall control on the authority. But, the Conservatives and Independents group is the largest party with 44 seats.
The Tories will be hoping to hang on as the largest party on the council — or potentially gain a majority — while Reform UK will expect to make inroads and gain more seats.
For the Liberal Democrats, the party will also hope to make gains as the main opposition to the Conservatives.
But, as polling day grows nearer, what are the polls projecting about the election in North Yorkshire?
The local election 2027 projection map for North Yorkshire. Picture: ElectionMapsUK
Election Maps UK, which has collated current polling data into a map alongside Navigate Politics, has launched a projection map for local elections across England.
In North Yorkshire, it gives a 78% chance of a hung council.
However, it also predicts a 22% chance of the Tories taking a majority and its current projection is that the party could win 46 seats, which would be enough to control the authority.
In the Harrogate area, the map is projecting the Conservatives lead in Oatlands and Rossett, Duchy and Valley Gardens and Bilton and Nidd Gorge.
Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats lead in Harlow Hill, Jennyfield, Bilton Grange and Coppice Valley, Granby, Starbeck, Knaresborough West and Knaresborough East.
The map also projects a lead for the Tories in Ripon Canal and Ure and an independent lead in Ripon South.
Predicting the electorate is ‘deluded’
Despite the projection, some councillors remain unconvinced when it comes to polls predicting the outcome of an election.
Cllr Andy Brown, Green Party councillor for Aire Valley on North Yorkshire Council, said those who believe they can predict which way the electorate will vote were “deluded”.
He said:
I am very hopeful that the hard work Green councillors have put in will result in increasing representation. I also expect the remote centralising policies of the ruling Conservative party to cost them seats. That is highly likely to result in no overall control. However, anyone who tells you that they know for sure which way the public will vote in the upcoming council elections in May is deluded.
Cllr Peter Lacey, leader of the Liberal Democrat group on the council, said the party expects to make gains in the election despite the chances of no overall control being high.
He said:
The Liberal Democrats on North Yorkshire Council expect to make significant gains across North Yorkshire in the local elections next May. However, with 5 or even 6 parties fighting for attention, plus Independents, people can be forgiven if they feel dazzled, confused or even disengaged.
Andrew Jones, chair of the Harrogate and Knaresborough Conservatives.
Meanwhile, Andrew Jones, chair of the Harrogate and Knaresborough Conservatives, said he was pleased to see the projections in the polling for the party.
But, he added that caution was required when looking at the map and that the only poll that mattered was the one on polling day.
He said:
It was pleasing to see a projection that reflected the polling progress we are seeing nationally and locally. We do not have a majority on North Yorkshire Council now and the projection suggested an increase of five councillors and that would mean winning the council.
There is a long way to go, however, before the only poll that counts and that is when people go out to vote next May. Caution is required in reading too much into this sort of thing. We will continue to work hard right up to polling day.
Cllr Tom Seston, leader of the Reform UK group on the council, also expressed scepticism at the polling map.
He pointed out that one of the independent candidates in Scarborough was now standing for the party and could possibly take some of his support to Reform.
Cllr Tom Seston
He added that the party was optimistic about its chances at the upcoming election.
Cllr Seston said:
We share the concerns of many residents with how the Council has been run for many years. Whether it’s Brierley Homes, Alpamare, Home to School Transport or ever widening budget gap, it’s clear residents want change.
We believe we can deliver that change, cutting the vanity projects and getting back to basics with matters such as drainage, street cleaning and tackling antisocial behaviour.
The Stray Ferret approached the Labour group on North Yorkshire Council for comment, but had not received a response by the time of publication.
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