Prime Minister Boris Johnson Archives

Strayside Sunday: the Prime Minister is in trouble

Strayside Sunday is a monthly political opinion column. It is written by Paul Baverstock, former Director of Communications for the Conservative Party.

Well, I didn’t see that one coming. This week, the Daily Mail named our very own Andrew Jones MP as a Tory rebel, joining the growing movement afoot to depose Boris Johnson as leader of his party and, therefore, as Prime Minister.

Never knowingly visible or bold, Andrew’s voice now joins the swelling chorus of Tory MPs who fear for their electoral futures under the current regime. And so they should. This government seems spent of the creative energies needed to address the very serious problems we face, mired as it is in stories about the lawbreaking crimes and misdemeanours of its parliamentary members. From the PM’s Fixed Penalty Notice for attending (just one) of his (many) Number 10 lockdown parties, to the shame of the Sue Gray report into frat house culture at the heart of the heart of the cabinet office, to the jailing of former Wakefield MP Imran Ahmad Khan for sexual assault, to the suspension of yet another, still unnamed Tory for sexual impropriety, a more than faint whiff of sleaze hovers over proceedings. It all feels a little fin de siècle.

Perhaps it’s that which has prompted Andrew Jones to break cover and join the revolution?

Or perhaps it is a rising fear that his rock-solid constituency majority might well be under threat from the yellow peril come the next election? I wrote last time about the success of Harrogate’s Liberal Democrats in May’s local election and remember it isn’t that long ago that Phil Willis was our highly effective and popular MP. There is a very real prospect that Harrogate will return a Liberal Democrat if the current trajectory of Conservative unpopularity continues up to the next election. No doubt this heady cocktail of prosaic principle and practical calculation lies at the root of Mr. Jones’ belated emergence into the ranks of the Tory rebels.

The fact of the matter is that the good ship Johnson is taking on water apace and listing heavily. Were the economy humming along, were the NHS meeting the demand for its services, were people receiving their new and replacement passports and driving licenses in good time, and were petrol, household energy and budget foods holding their price, then Johnson might have been able to brazenly ride out the Partygate furore and the fact that his deep character flaws have moved from private realm to public sphere. As it is there is every possibility that we are heading toward recession, the new NHS Integrated Care Systems are coming on stream with a requirement to cut their budget deficits even in the face of crippling backlogs and overwhelming demands, the basic wheels of bureaucratic government seem to be gummed at the axle and inflation has hit 10%. Given all this, the Tory party’s famed instinct for self-preservation is kicking in and I predict Boris will be out this summer.

The final nail in the coffin is likely to be this month’s by-elections in Wakefield and Tiverton. Both will be seen as bellwethers for the next election. Wakefield was only taken from Labour at the 2019 election with a majority of 3,500, part of Johnson’s Red Wall and proof then of his Heineken quality, reaching those parts other Tories cannot. Given that Labour is 7 points ahead of the Conservatives in national opinion polls, and given the circumstances of the outgoing MP’s resignation, it looks like divine intervention may be the only way the Conservatives will hold the seat. Tiverton (in Devon) is a different kettle; it is a seat held only by the Conservatives since the 1880’s. Yet the mood music suggests that the Lib Dems fancy their chances of doing a North Shropshire and indeed they benefit from a much stronger local base in Tiverton (in the form of local council seats). They are throwing the kitchen sink at the campaign and the Tories are wobbling.

If Johnson loses both by-election seats he will then face discontent and attack from both flanks – from the 2019 intake Red Wall Tories that feel they won because of him last time and from more traditional Tories in the South and elsewhere who fear a Liberal Democrat resurgence. In short, from being the Tory that proved he could win everywhere, Johnson will have become the Tory that can’t win anywhere. And the party won’t wear that. It will see it as its duty to move against Mr. Johnson.

Talking of duty I can’t let this weekend pass without mention of The Queen and her Jubilee. I’m 54, which means the Queen had been on the throne for 16 years even before I was born. Her commitment to serving her country, her integrity, her forbearance and her honour should serve as a lesson to us all. It seems unlikely she’ll be with us for much longer (and who knows what awaits the Royal Family when she is gone), so I for one applaud the celebrations of a grateful nation.

The counterpoint of Her Majesty’s character and behaviour could not be in starker contrast to that of her latest Prime Minister and indeed many of those whose support for him is now in question.

That’s my Strayside Sunday.

MPs watch: ‘anger’ over partygate and Northern Ireland politics

Every month the Stray Ferret tries to find out what our local MPs have been up to in their constituencies and in the House of Commons.

This month, historic elections in Northern Ireland saw Sinn Fein become the largest party and the Sue Gray Downing Street parties report was finally published.

We asked our three Conservative MPs, Harrogate & Knaresborough’s Andrew Jones, Skipton and Ripon’s Julian Smith, and Selby and Ainsty’s Nigel Adams if they would like to highlight anything in particular that they have been doing this month, but, as usual, we did not receive a response from any of them.

Here is what we know after analysing their online presence.

Andrew Jones, Harrogate and Knaresborough MP.

In Harrogate and Knaresborough, here is what we found out on Mr Jones:

On May 5, Mr Jones attended the council election count at the Harrogate Convention Centre. He refused to speak with the Stray Ferret when approached for comment on the results.
On May 12, Mr Jones said in the Commons that he has been contacted by ‘distressed constituents’ who are waiting for their passports. He said: “It can be highly stressful for them to be chasing documents as they approach departure day.”
He was back in Harrogate the next day to cut a ribbon and officially open the new Carer’s Resource centre in Harrogate.
On May 17, he met TV presenter and campaigner Quentin Willson to discuss electric vehicles.
On May 20, Mr Jones told Parliament that cuts to Northern train services will damage business and make it impossible for some commuters to be at work on time.
On May 22, the MP was spotted campaigning for the Conservatives in Wakefield for the upcoming by-election.
On May 23, Mr Jones voted for the government’s Public Order Bill. Critics of the bill say it will erode people’s right to protest.
On May 24, Mr Jones asked Thirsk MP Kevin Hollinrake if the Home Office has promised any extra funding for local services impacted by the Linton-on-Ouse asylum centre. Mr Hollinrake replied: “Apparently there will be a double-manned police car in the village at all times.”
On May 27, Mr Jones met the group Melanoma Focus and posed for a photo.
Harrogate & Knaresborough Conservative MP Andrew Jones wrote to a constituent that he feels “anger” over partygate — but would not say whether he has submitted a letter of no confidence in Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

Julian Smith, MP for Skipton and Ripon.

In Skipton and Ripon, here is what we found on Mr Smith:

On May 1, Mr Smith met with the Tory candidates in Ripon for the North Yorkshire County Council elections Cllr Mike Chambers and Thomas Averre. Both candidates failed to win on May 5.
The MP wrote an op-ed in the Daily Mail following the elections in Northern Ireland that saw Sinn Fein become the largest party for the first time. He warned the union between the UK and Northern Ireland is under threat.
On May 18, Mr Smith met Pateley Bridge artist James Owen Thomas. Mr Thomas likes to express himself through the beauty of the outdoors.
On the same day, Mr Smith met Justin Scully, general manager of Fountains Abbey, to discuss the Skell Valley Project.
In an interview with Politics Home’s podcast The Rundown, Smith suggested there was a “question” over how committed some MPs are to Northern Ireland.
Mr Smith spoke in the Commons for the first time in two months in a debate about the Northern Ireland Troubles Bill. He said “For Northern Ireland to come to terms with its past, there is a need for acknowledgement from all sides: from the IRA for the thousands of murders; from loyalists for the hundreds of killings; from the Irish Government for their role in the troubles; and for the killings and collusion by UK forces.”

In rural south Harrogate, here is what we found on Mr Adams:

On May 25, the Boris Johnson ally backed the PM following publication of the Sue Gray report. He tweeted: “He now needs to get on with the job, levelling up the country, tackling global challenges inc cost of living & Ukraine crisis & delivering for the country & for the people who put their faith in him in 2019.”
On May 22, the MP hit out at London Northwestern Railway following a My Chemical Romance concert in Milton Keynes. He thundered: “Dear @LNRailway a disgrace you have not arranged enough trains to get hundreds of young people home after midnight following a concert in Milton Keynes.”
The MP revealed himself as a fan of pop-punk act Blink 182 during a discussion about the celebrity wedding of Kourtney Kardashian and the band’s drummer Travis Barker. He tweeted: “To be fair, @travisbarker is one of the best drummers I’ve seen and worthy of his fame.”
In The Times on May 18, Mr Adams co-authored an article with York Outer MP, and former Harrogate councillor, Julian Sturdy, that said Great British Railways should be based in York.
He twice criticised Labour leader Keir Starmer over the so-called ‘beergate’ row. “Wowser”, he tweeted. “The hypocrisy of
@Keir_Starmer has been breathtaking and he’ll need some fancy lawyer dance moves to explain this one away.”

Spofforth council appeals to Prime Minister over controversial housing proposal

Spofforth parish council has written to Prime Minister Boris Johnson urging the government to investigate a controversial housing development in the village.

Yorkshire Housing Ltd has challenged Harrogate Borough Council’s decision to refuse its proposal for 72 homes on Massey Fold.

The developer already has outline permission to build on the site, but councillors turned down an application for appearance and landscaping in November last year.

Ahead of a decision from the government’s planning inspector, the parish council has written to Boris Johnson calling on him to “throw the weight of government” against the scheme.

The letter from Shirley Fawcett, chairman of Spofforth with Stockeld Parish Council, says the village is “a very blue village but which is seeing red thanks to the government’s planning policies”.

It adds that it “will never be the same” if the appeal is allowed and that the “Sword of Damocles” hangs over villagers.

It added that a recent Chesham and Amersham by-election defeat for the Conservative party was because the “government have more on their minds than planning issues”, but pleaded for Mr Johnson to listen to the village’s concern.

It said:

“We ask from the bottom of our hearts on behalf of the whole village that you investigate this situation and throw the weight of government against this scheme and of course hundreds of other schemes proposed for villages throughout the country.

“We would fully support the need for the development on ‘brown field’ sites but definitely not on this countryside site.”

Developer seeks costs

Meanwhile, Yorkshire Housing Ltd has submitted an application for costs against Harrogate Borough Council should the appeal be given the go-ahead.

The developer said the borough council had “unreasonably delayed development” at the site and that its case “does not contain any objective analysis that justifies the reason for refusal”.

In response to the costs application, the council said:

“In making the determination to refuse the application, the local planning authority have had regards to the development plan and supporting material consideration.

“The local planning authority respectfully requests that the inspector dismisses the applicant for an award of costs.”

The Planning Inspectorate, which deals with planning appeals, will make a decision on the proposal at a later date.

Could local MP be promoted in Prime Minister’s cabinet reshuffle?

There is speculation that local MP Nigel Adams could be promoted as part of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s reshuffle.

Reports on national newspaper websites say Mr Adams could be in line for a position at the Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport.

However, the government had yet to confirm any move at the time of publication.

The Prime Minister said he wanted a “strong and united team to build back better from the pandemic”.

Should Mr Adams, whose Selby and Ainsty constituency includes rural parts of the Harrogate district, including Spofforth and Follifoot, take on the brief, it will include overseeing a review of the Gambling Act.

The Stray Ferret reported last month that Mr Adams accepted gifts from three companies for £6,038 worth of hospitality tickets to England’s Euro 2020 games.

Two of those firms, Entain and Power Leisure Bookmakers, were gambling companies, according to his register of interests.

Mr Adams, was criticised last week for telling anti-Brexit campaigner Steve Bray to “f**k off” outside the House of Commons.

He defended his outburst, which he claimed “no doubt reflected” the feelings of other MPs.

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Developer seeks costs

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