Will Harrogate district change tier in tomorrow’s review?

Another government tier review is scheduled for tomorrow amid rising coronavirus cases across the country.

The Harrogate district avoided harsher restrictions in last week’s review and stayed in tier two, despite other areas being placed in tier four.

However, the district has seen a gradual increase in both infections and the R number since then.

There has also been talk of tougher restrictions everywhere to combat the new mutant strain of the virus.

North Yorkshire Local Resilience Forum, which represents agencies that combat covid, has called an urgent media briefing tomorrow to respond to rising transmissions rates and Health Secretary Matt Hancock’s tier announcement.

Rising case rates

The Harrogate district’s seven-day infection rate has increased since the last tier review on December 23 but remains the lowest in the county.

Last week, the district reported a rate of 86 infections per 100,000 people. That has risen to 115.

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But there is widespread concern about soaring rates elsewhere in the county, which could drag all of North Yorkshire into a higher tier.

Recently, public health bosses expressed concerns about Scarborough’s rate. But the borough’s rate, which was the highest in the county last week at 264, has since dropped to 215.

Hambleton, however, has seen its rate rocket from 100 to 242, according to the most recent figures.

The county-wide average stands at 165, which is still below the national rate.

By comparison, Peterborough, which is in tier four, has a rate of 412 cases per 100,000 people.

The Harrogate district’s much lower rate gives hope it may again escape being moved up a tier.

Hospital admissions

There is widespread national concern about the rise in covid hospital admissions.

Sir Simon Stevens, chief executive of NHS England, warned the country was “back in the eye of the storm” after figures showed that 20,426 patients were being treated in hospitals on Monday.

The number is an increase on 18,976 recorded on April 12 during the peak of the first lockdown.

Locally, most recent figures show 14 covid patients are currently being treated at Harrogate District Hospital.

Infection rates in Harrogate district ‘too high for tier one’

Local health and police leaders have acknowledged there will be disappointment in the Harrogate district at the news that it will stay in tier two.

Infection rates across North Yorkshire fell rapidly from mid-November but have plateaued lately at a rate that is still five times higher than it was in the summer.

After announcing the tier decisions this morning, the government released a written explanation on how it reached its verdict for North Yorkshire, which describes the outlook in the county as ‘improving’.

Besides the county’s overall infection rate, other key factors in determining the tier level include infection rates in people aged over 60, which are described as ‘stable or decreasing’.

Another factor is hospital coronavirus admissions, which are decreasing steadily. The government explanation said:

“The epidemiology indicators are too high for allocation to tier one but the trajectory does currently not warrant inclusion in tier three.”

The explanation highlights Scarborough as the most concerning area of North Yorkshire because infection rates are above 150 people per 100,000.

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Richard Flinton, chair of the North Yorkshire Local Resilience Forum, which is a partnership of organisations tackling emergencies in the county, said:

“We know there will be some disappointment in areas where rates are lower, that we remain in tier two as a whole county.

“But we can see that rates of reduction have flattened out and in some areas have risen again and our priority has to be about keeping our people safe.

“If we have to stay in tier two to achieve it then we must work to the government’s tiering plan.”

Christmas bubbles

Amanda Bloor, the accountable officer for North Yorkshire Clinical Commissioning Group, which buys health services for the county, added:

“Colleagues across the NHS continue to do a phenomenal job to provide health services for the people of North Yorkshire and York.

“Even though there will be a brief and specific relaxation of government guidance over the holiday period we are urging people to make sensible choices.

“Your choices now will help protect NHS services for those who need them most this winter.”

Chief inspector Charlotte Bloxham, silver lead for North Yorkshire Police’s covid response asked people to “carefully consider their own situation” and “make an informed decision based on their own personal circumstances” regarding Christmas arrangements. She added:

“If you have vulnerable people in your family, please consider carefully whether forming a Christmas bubble with them is the right thing to do.

“There will be no exemption period in place for New Year’s Eve celebrations, so it may be an idea to plan now for a quiet end to 2020.”

Strayside Sunday: “Levelling Up” means acting now to help the North

Strayside Sunday is our weekly political opinion column. It is written by Paul Baverstock, former Director of Communications for the Conservative Party. 

Try as I might, my rudimentary internet research skills have not yet uncovered the criteria for Harrogate currently residing in Covid-19 Medium Tier Alert.  With some application I can discern the do’s and don’ts of the category: 10pm curfew, the Rule of 6, non-attendance at the monthly swingers club, that sort of thing.  It’s just that, for the life of me, I can’t uncover the triggers that would mean Harrogate might be promoted to High Alert, alongside near neighbours Leeds, or even catapulted into Very High Alert, there to rub shoulders with Liverpool.

I think the alert level might be something to do with the R-rate, the number of positive Covid-19 tests, the size of the city or town’s student population, relative levels of social deprivation, areas of health inequality, the proportion of people over the age of 60, ethnicity and pre-existing and underlying health conditions.  No one is able to say for sure.  In fact the alert level decision is of course about all of these things and more.  Myriad factors discussed and negotiated between a national government (the authority of which has lost its wax and found its wane) and local government leaders, in full voice, newly ‘bold as Beauchamp.’  Or, should I say, given I write this in Yorkshire about the North’s crop of elected Mayors, ‘bold as brass.’

What’s going on?  The Conservative government is, of course, in a terrible stew.  The decisions it faces hour-by-hour must balance the ongoing threat to our health with further damage to our already grievously wounded economy.  It is making life or death decisions, affecting health or wealth, in real-time, with only instinct and imperfect information as a guide.  But, as the number of clangers, screeching hand-break turns and misfires mounts up, even those, like me, sympathetically minded toward the government, are beginning to lose patience.  It’s not only about poor decision making and obvious political incompetence, it’s about the glaring lack of a guiding principle, a north star, so to speak.

By backing Brexit (opportunistically and at the last moment) and, through the good offices of Dominic “The Brainiac” Cummins, by turning it into a conversation about immigration, Boris earned a hearing from the white working-class north of Watford Gap.  So, when Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson won his stonking parliamentary majority in December 2019, he did so with what seemed a strong, if, from Boris, counterintuitive promise to “level up” the North.  No longer the posh London metropolitan  ‘hug-a-hoodie’ Tory party of Dave and Sam Cam, the Conservatives were striking out beyond the M25, prioritising the forgotten industrial waste lands of post-post-Thatcherite Britain and, BBC-like, placing new emphasis on regional accents.  Man of the people BoJo promised us investment in jobs, skills, infrastructure, a brave and bold future grown rich on newly minted international trade deals.  But, then, Covid, only Covid.

We know that people in the North of England went into this crisis earning, owning and saving less than those in the South.  Nothing new to see here.  We also know now that Covid hits hardest in densely populated urban areas with high levels of social deprivation.  And we know that Covid seeks out and punishes those in ill health.  We know too that Covid disproportionately impacts BAME nationals.  All these matter more in the urban multi-cultural north.

The northern mayors have a point; Covid, and the government’s developing economic response to it, are widening the gap between north and south.  Its hitting hardest those who can least afford it, whether they are working in low paid jobs, or not working at all.  Yes, the mayors are being politically partisan, they scent a real opportunity to regain lost ground and build again in red brick.  But they are most certainly representing the feelings of their constituents, secondary modern kids snubbed once more by their betters in gowns and mortarboards.

It was announced during the Conservatives’ virtual conference last week that it was going to open a northern party headquarters in Leeds.  This the better to emphasise its un-swingeing commitment to the region.  But unless the Conservative Party genuinely hears and urgently acts upon the grievances being aired now by mayors like Andy Burnham from Greater Manchester, Steve Rotheram from the Liverpool City Region and Jamie Driscoll from North Tyne, it won’t just receive a cool welcome when it opens for business in Leeds (Labour Leader Judith Blake is said to be spitting at the prospect), it will surely lose the north at the next election.

So I propose that Boris doubles down on levelling up, to counterpoint my metaphors.  If he doesn’t, he leaves the Conservatives open to the easy charge that they don’t care about the north after all.  It’s not too late for him to tack and change course.  As St. Augustine said, “repentant tears wash out the stain of guilt.”

 

That’s my Strayside Sunday.