Poll predicts Tory general election wipeout in Harrogate district
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Last updated Apr 1, 2024
Andrew Jones (left) and Julian Smith
Under threat? Conservative MPs Andrew Jones (left) and Julian Smith.

An opinion poll has indicated the Conservatives are in course to lose all three seats that include the former Harrogate district at the next general election.

The MRP poll of 15,029 adults by Survation, commissioned for the Sunday Times, showed that if an election were held now the number of Tory MPs would be reduced from 348 to 98. Labour would win 468 seats and have a huge overall majority of 142.

The seat projection forecasts that the Conservative casualties would include Andrew Jones, who has represented Harrogate and Knaresborough since 2010, and Julian Smith, who has been the Skipton and Ripon MP since the same year.

It also predicts Labour will win the newly created Wetherby and Easingwold constituency, which includes towns and villages such as Boroughbridge, Ouseburn, Marston Moor, Spofforth and Huby.

The poll, which was conducted between March 8 and 22, predicts Mr Jones’ vote will fall from 53% at the 2019 election to 31%, with the Liberal Democrats’ winning with 36% and Labour third with 24%. Reform would be a distant fourth on 7% and the Greens would get just 2%.

Tom Gordon

Tom Gordon

Tom Gordon, the Lib Dem parliamentary candidate for Harrogate and Knaresborough, said:

“This is now the latest in a series of polls and seat projections that clearly show the Liberal Democrats are in clear contention to win back Harrogate and Knaresborough from the Conservatives.

“Even Electoral Calculus, which was one of the few remaining sources predicting a Conservative hold, is now suggesting local residents will be turning their backs on the incumbent Conservative MP.”

Electoral Calculus says the Lib Dems have a 63% chance of taking Harrogate and Knaresborough. It puts the Conservatives’ chances of retaining the seat at 27% and Labour’s odds of winning at 9%.

Ripon result on a knife edge? 

According to Survation, Labour would win an extremely close contest in Skipton and Ripon, with 36.66% compared with the Tories’ 36.08%. The Liberal Democrats would finish third, with 11%, just ahead of Reform on 10%.

Labour has yet to select a candidate to stand against Mr Smith in this constituency.

Survation also predicts a close call in Wetherby and Easingwold. It says Labour has a 39% chance of winning compared with 38% for the Conservatives and 10% for the Lib Dems. Reform is given a 7% chance.


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