Strayside Sunday is a monthly political opinion column. It is written by Paul Baverstock, former Director of Communications for the Conservative Party.
I write the morning after the night before the Wakefield and Tiverton by-elections, both of which proved (predictably) disastrous for Boris Johnson and the Conservative Party. In Wakefield, Labour took the seat with a majority of 4,925 on a 12.7% swing. In Tiverton, Tory since 1880, a massive swing of almost 30% saw the Sir Ed Davey’s Liberal Democrats win with a majority of 6,144. Conservative Party Co-Chair Oliver Dowden published a letter before 6am this morning, “taking responsibility” and falling on his sword. Whether this is a put-up job, designed to draw the eye away from Boris Johnson’s actual responsibility, with a seat in the Lords to follow – after an appropriate passage of time – remains to be seen. However, Dowden’s reputation is that of a decent fellow and, so rare in modern politics, let’s take it at face value that, as the man in charge of the by-election campaigns that led to crushing defeat, he has decided to do the decent thing and go.
It was Bill Clinton’s Louisianan campaign guru James Carville who, in 1992, coined the phrase “it’s the economy, stupid.” And, in the end, it always is. If the economy is in the tank, then it is almost impossible for governing parties to win elections, general, by or local. And our economy is in serious trouble. With inflation running at a 40 year high 10%, the cost-of-living soaring, with post-Brexit trade friction and severe global supply chain problems, the economic outlook is bleak and a recession looking and feeling increasingly likely. At least interest rates, although on the up, are still in the low single digits. With the price of petrol and diesel going through the roof – the Stray Ferret reported that diesel hit £2 per litre in Harrogate this week – with energy prices spiking and with the costs of the average food basket increasing by close to 50%, people are finding it increasingly difficult to make ends meet. As part of an economy drive, I would recommend that you avoid filling up at Wetherby services, which now boasts the most expensive fuel in the country.
If you ask pollsters there is only one question that counts in public opinion polling; “is the country heading in the right direction.” The single largest determinant of the answer is the state of the economy and, as the Americans say, how that is hitting people in their pocketbook. Unambiguously, most people are worse off now than they were a year ago and you are never going to win elections in that context.
That said you can’t discount the facts of the resignations of the former Conservative MP’s in Wakefield and Tiverton – criminal sexual assault and watching porn (twice) in the commons. These combined with the litany of bad behaviour on behalf of the Prime Minister – ethics violations prior, during and including Partygate – take one’s mind back to the allegations of Tory sleaze that put paid to the last long-standing Conservative government of Margaret Thatcher and John Major. This lot aren’t behaving properly just when we need maximum grab in Westminster.
Boris Johnson carries on, blithely disregarding that which practically everyone else in the country knows; he has lost any authority to govern in our names. Yet on Boris blunders and blusters, now seemingly safe for a year’s grace, post-confidence vote, per Tory party rules. If the attacks on him from within his party had been coordinated, rather than piecemeal, then the confidence vote against him would not have been forced until the by-election results were in. But because the parliamentary party itself is a loose coalition of Red Wallers, Shire Tories, Right Wingers and One Nation Moderates, there was little shared enterprise in the bid to remove Johnson, rather a collection of individual malcontents from across the piece. Nor is there an obvious successor from any wing. I hope it’s not true, but because the plotters couldn’t get their act together, we may now be stuck with Johnson until 2023.
Closer to home we are stuck with Harrogate Borough Council for another 9 months until it is abolished and the North Yorkshire County Council unitary takes over. Following the May local elections, a new executive team took over at NYCC, which has prompted a rethink about the controversial proposed Station Gateway Development here in Harrogate. In two previous public consultations significant concerns have been raised by residents and business leaders about the impact of the development on traffic in the town. Yet another consultation – specifically on traffic impacts – is now to be commissioned. This is the politics of delay, of kicking the can down the road. Whether or not Station Gateway ever does get the go-ahead is now an even money chance, linked so closely as it is with the now dead in the water Harrogate Borough Council.
It seems whether in Westminster, or at home in Harrogate, we face a period of zombie government, neither dead nor alive, ill-equipped to deal with the very serious issues confronting us all.
That’s my Strayside Sunday.
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