The Selby and Ainsty by-election this week delivered a historic result for Labour and a blow to the ruling Conservative government.

Keir Mather became the youngest MP in parliament at just 25 after overturning the 20,000 majority held by the Tories.

It means Mr Mather becomes the first ever Labour MP to be elected in a constituency that includes part of the Harrogate district.

But, what does this mean for Harrogate and Knaresborough ahead of an upcoming General Election?

Tactical voting

Labour was the main opposition in Selby and Ainsty – however the same cannot be said for Harrogate.

Amid the fallout from the results last night, John Curtis, professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, told the BBC that, as with other by-elections, voters opted for “whichever opposition party appeared best able to defeat the local Conservative candidate”.

Should this be replicated in Harrogate at a General Election, it would be the Liberal Democrats and their candidate Tom Gordon.

Currently, they need to make up a 9,675 majority held by Conservative MP, Andrew Jones.

Should they unseat the Tories, it would likely require some Labour voters switching to the Lib Dems in order to vote tactically.

People are sick & tired of this Conservative Government, & they are voting them out.

Another huge historic swing & win for the Lib Dems in Somerton & Frome for @SarahDykeLD proves that in blue wall seats, like Harrogate & Knaresborough, where the @LibDems are 2nd we can win. pic.twitter.com/pzo0o4Vvuj

— Tom Gordon (@tomgordonLD) July 21, 2023

As with the Somerset and Frome election on Thursday, which the Liberal Democrats won, Mr Gordon believes this can be replicated in Harrogate and Knaresborough.

He told Sky News:

“We have seen that people are not overly enthusiastic about Keir Starmer and Labour here [in Selby] in general.

“But they will vote for the second placed party who is best positioned to get rid of the Conservatives.”

Despite Mr Gordon’s confidence over the prospect of unseating the Conservatives, the political forecasters paint a different picture.

The chances of winning in Harrogate and Knaresborough, according to Electoral Calculus.

Electoral Calculus, which uses past voting figures, polling trends and party support to predict the average outcome of seat, has Mr Jones winning a fifth consecutive election with a 56% chance of winning.

By contrast, the Liberal Democrats have 24% chance of winning and Labour 19%.

Mr Jones told BBC News on Thursday that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s five pledges had chimed with people in his constituency despite these being tough times.

Both Labour and the Liberal Democrats will have work to do to replicate Selby and Ainsty in Harrogate ahead of the next polling day.

Read more:

• Labour overturns huge Tory majority to win Selby and Ainsty by-election
• Harrogate heavyweights out in force at Selby by-election

The Conservatives would retain Harrogate and Knaresborough while Labour could gain Selby and Ainsty if a general election were held tomorrow.

According to Electoral Calculus, a political forecasting company, Andrew Jones MP would win a fifth successive election in Harrogate.

Meanwhile, Labour would unseat the Tories in Selby and Ainsty, which includes areas of rural Harrogate, and Julian Smith, Skipton and Ripon MP, would retain his seat for the Conservatives but in a far closer contest.

Electoral Calculus uses past voting figures, polling trends and party support to predict the average outcome of seats in the House of Commons.

The chances of winning seats in Parliament has become particularly pertinent as a by-election looms in Selby and Ainsty next month and a general election is lined up for next year.

The Conservative campaign in Selby and Ainsty was thrown into disarray on Friday when its candidate, Michael Naughton, withdrew just days after being selected.

But with by-election fever mounting, we looked at the state of play locally according to Electoral Calculus.

Harrogate and Knaresborough

According to the political forecaster, Andrew Jones has a 67% chance of winning in Harrogate and Knaresborough.

Mr Jones, who has already confirmed he will stand at the next election, currently has a majority of 9,675.

The website says the Liberal Democrats have a 20% chance of winning while Labour, which has yet to name a candidate, is rated 13%.

The figures come as Tom Gordon, Liberal Democrat candidate for the seat, this week called for an election in light of three Conservative MPs resigning last weekend.

The predictions for Harrogate and Knaresborough, according to Electoral Calculus.

However, under an election scenario, the Lib Dems would pick up 28% of the vote – which is down on their 2019 figure of 35.6%.

Meanwhile, Mr Jones’ share would drop from 52.6% to 37%.

However, the increase in share of Labour from 9.6% to 24% suggests a split in the vote which paves the way for the Tories to retain the constituency.

Selby and Ainsty

The chances of the Conservatives holding onto Selby and Ainsty in the upcoming by-election look tight, according to Electoral Calculus.

Voters will head to the polls on July 20 after the resignation of Nigel Adams MP last weekend.

Labour announced 26-year-old Keir Mather will fight the by-election for the party.

Michael Naughton was picked to succeed Mr Adams for the Conservatives but withdrew on Friday and a replacement has yet to be named.

The Green Party has chosen Arnold Warneken, who represents Ouseburn on North Yorkshire Council, as its prospective parliamentary candidate.

The predictions for Selby and Ainsty, according to Electoral Calculus.

Electoral Calculus has the contest as a two-horse race, with Labour a 55% chance of winning and the Conservatives 45%.

Such a result would be dramatic given that Mr Adams, who was a former Foreign Office minister, had a majority of 20,137.

Under such a scenario, Labour would increase its vote share from 24.6% at the last election to 39.8%.

Meanwhile, the Tories would fall from 60.3% to 37.9%.

Skipton and Ripon

A similarly tight contest can be found in Skipton and Ripon.

Julian Smith, the former Northern Ireland secretary, currently holds the seat for the Conservatives with a majority of 23,694.

He’s predicted to have a 55% chance of retaining the seat for the party.

The predictions for Skipton and Ripon, according to Electoral Calculus.

Meanwhile, Labour has a 44% chance.

Despite a predicted drop in vote share from 59.5% to 37.5%, Mr Smith would be safe.

The figures, however, also forecast a hike in Labour’s share from 19.1% at the last election to 35.5%.

Read more:

• Tories and Greens name candidates as local by-election looms
• Selby and Ainsty MP resigns with immediate effect
• Labour names candidate for local by-election

A new Mayor of Knaresborough has been elected at the annual meeting of the town council.

Cllr Hannah Gostlow, who has been a councillor since 2015, said she hoped to use her year for the benefit of a town which had made her welcome when she moved there.

She said:

“Since moving to Knaresborough 10 years ago, I have been in awe of this beautiful town and welcoming community.

“It is a place you want to give back to – so I am honoured to be given this opportunity and promise to work hard to champion our wonderful town as mayor.”

As well as sitting on Knaresborough Town Council, Cllr Gostlow represents Knaresborough East on North Yorkshire Council after being elected for the Liberal Democrats last year.

Her election as mayor was witnessed by mayors of neighbouring towns and representatives of community groups in Knaresborough at the annual meeting.

Cllr Gostlow’s chosen charities for the year will be Inspire Youth and Knaresborough Community Energy Limited. She added:

“The sense of community is so strong. We are spoilt by the number of events throughout the year, delivered with such creativity and enthusiasm, thriving independent businesses, schools, church communities, and there are so many amazing community groups, run and supported by dedicated individuals.

“So, when it came to choosing the charity to support, it was a very difficult decision.”

Read more:

• Knaresborough town crier Roger Hewitt prepares for final cry
• BedFest to add festival feel to Knaresborough Bed Race

Former Harrogate Liberal Democrat candidate Anthony Medri has been jailed for over two years for sexually abusing a teenage girl and paying her to send him intimate photos of herself.

Medri, 64, from Knaresborough, sexually assaulted the girl on several occasions and sent her a picture of an intimate part of his body, York Crown Court heard.

The Harrogate Borough Council candidate in 2015 also urged her to send him indecent pictures of herself, said prosecutor Shaun Dodds.

He said that Medri, who is married, had sexually assaulted the youngster by touching her on intimate parts of her body and kissing her on the lips.

Medri asked the girl on social media if she had “ever seen a grown man’s (private parts)”. He then sent her an intimate picture of himself and told her to delete the messages.

Mr Dodds said that in 2017, Medri started transferring money into the girl’s bank account and asking her what she was wearing.

This was followed by a request for a picture of her in her underwear and a promise to pay her £50 if she sent it. Mr Dodds said:

“She sent an image of herself wearing a bra.

“He had previously bought her some underwear…and asked her for photos wearing that underwear.”

The prosecutor said that between 2017 and 2019, £580 of payments were made into the victim’s account for intimate photos of her. Mr Dodds added:

“Sometimes she would also get payments in cash as well.”

Grooming process

Medri – who stood unsuccessfully as a candidate for the Lib Dems in the 2015 local elections when he contested the Stray ward – initially gave the girl money so she could treat herself, which the prosecution said was part of the grooming process.

He would tell the girl “to get yourself something nice”, said Mr Dodds.

The victim “wasn’t in a good place” at the time and she felt that Medri used this to take advantage of her difficult circumstances.

He bought her treats such as perfume, clothes, tobacco and vodka – along with a sex toy and told her to “try it out”. The victim put the item in a bin.

Mr Dodds said that on the occasions Medri tried to kiss the girl, she would pull away, but he would kiss her again. He once drove her to a remote location where he sexually assaulted her.

Read more:

• Couple deny defrauding Harrogate estate agents with £24m wealth claim
• Blood testing to move from Harrogate to Knaresborough due to Sainsbury’s pharmacy closure

Medri was ultimately brought in for questioning and accepted having asked for pictures of the girl in her underwear and that he had given her money, but initially denied sexually assaulting her.

A trial was due to be held but Medri ultimately admitted one count of intentionally causing a child to look at an image of a person engaging in a sexual act, three counts of sexual assault and three counts of causing or inciting the sexual exploitation of a child to become a prostitute or be involved in pornography, namely asking the girl for photos of herself in her underwear.

Mr Medri, of Forest Moor Road, appeared for sentence today when the court heard a harrowing statement from the young victim.

She said she had been left with the “overwhelming” feeling that she was somehow at fault for the abuse.

This and the fact that Medri had protested his innocence for so long had caused her “extreme anxiety”. She added:

“I don’t think I will ever get over what has happened. I think about it every single day.”

Carer for disabled wife

Defence barrister Jeremy Barton said there had been a “plethora” of character references provided by friends and family of Medri.

He conceded, however, that Medri’s offences, which occurred over a period of about a year, were “disturbing and worrying”.

He said that Medri, who had worked all his life and was now a carer for his disabled wife, had shown a “degree of remorse”.

Judge Sean Morris told Medri he should have owned up to his offences “a long time ago” and described his protestations of innocence until his belated guilty pleas as “gutless”.

He told Medri:

“For heaven’s sake man, why did you put this girl through all those months of anguish waiting for (what was expected to be) a trial. It’s gutless.”

He said that only an immediate prison sentence was appropriate for inciting a young girl “in a vulnerable position to sell pictures of (herself) for Medri’s “sexual pleasure”.

The judge said that Medri had taken advantage of the girl when she was in a “desperate state” because of her life circumstances.

Medri was jailed for two years and two months, but he will only serve half of that behind bars before being released on prison licence.

Medri was also given a five-year sexual-harm prevention order to protect children and placed on the sex-offenders’ register for 10 years.

The Conservatives in North Yorkshire suffered a blow this week after losing the Masham and Fountains by-election.

Liberal Democrat Felicity Cunliffe-Lister, the Countess of Swinton, took the North Yorkshire County Council seat which had previously been held by long-serving Conservative Margaret Atkinson.

It’s the latest defeat for the local Tories, who failed to win a majority in Harrogate and Knaresborough in last May’s local election.

That meant the Lib Dems seized control of the county council’s Harrogate and Knaresborough area constituency committee but the Conservatives retained overall control across the county.

But this week’s loss has reduced the Tories’ majority to just two and raised the prospect of the party losing overall control of the county for the first time in over 20 years.

A further dent in the Tories’ majority

In just eight weeks time, the upcoming North Yorkshire Council will take over local government in the county. Councillors will transfer from North Yorkshire County Council and serve for four more years.

The swing in power has been dramatic since May last year.

In Harrogate and Knaresborough, the Liberal Democrats now hold 11 seats compared to two just nine months ago following this week’s election in Masham.

How the make-up of North Yorkshire County Council looked prior to the by-election.

The Masham result was particularly pertinent given that the Conservatives had won the seat in the May 2022 elections with 1,076 votes.

This week’s by-election was a two-horse race after the opposition Green Party pulled out of the contest in an effort to bolster the Lib Dems’ chances.

Overall, the Conservatives are the largest party with 46 seats on the council with opposition parties taking up 44.

Read more:

• Green Party steps aside for upcoming Masham by-election
• Liberal Democrats win Masham and Fountains by-election

The dent in the majority means the party are just one by-election away from losing overall power.

The loss of overall control would have implications for major decisions. Should the council be required to pass a tough budget with far reaching cuts or hike in council tax, it could result in a tight vote.

The make-up of the council could also lead to close votes on politically difficult topics, such as fracking.

However, such a controversial topics may also see other councillors from different political parties vote against their own party line.

‘You can promise the earth in opposition’

While the defeat may leave the Conservatives in a tough position on paper, local councillors are upbeat about the situation.

Cllr Nick Brown, who sits as a Conservative in the Wathvale and Bishop Monkton division, told the Stray Ferret that the party respected the electorate’s decision and that Tory councillors would continue to work for constituents.

He said the Liberal Democrats would find it “difficult” to put words into action.

Cllr Brown said:

“The opposition spoke a lot and talked a lot. But putting things into action would be very difficult.

“When you are in opposition, you can promise the earth.”

He added that he hoped the result was a “blip” for the local party.

He said:

“We live in a democracy and people can put their names forward.

“The electorate has spoken, sadly not in our favour. I hope this is a little blip on the horizon.”

Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats have taken the result in their stride.

Tom Gordon, Liberal Democrat candidate for Harrogate and Knaresborough parliamentary constituency, said the result “put the Tories on notice”.

He said:

“A fantastic result and win in what once was true blue North Yorkshire.

“It’s clear that the public, and the Lib Dems, are well and truly putting the Conservatives on notice in what issupposed to be their heartlands.”

Meanwhile, Green party Cllr Arnold Warneken, who represents Ouseburn division, said it was not straight forward in opposing the Conservatives despite their slim majority.

He said:

“It’s not clear cut. We have to get all the opposition on the same side and get one Conservative.

“We have also got to make sure that everyone is there.”

Cllr Warneken added that he was prepared to work with any party and was not bound by “political dogma”.

“As an opposition councillor, I will work with everybody.”

Voters in the Masham and Fountains division will go to the polls tomorrow to choose their next councillor.

The North Yorkshire County Council by-election follows the death of Conservative councillor Margaret Atkinson in November.

Liberal Democrat Felicity Cunliffe-Lister, who is the Countess of Swinton, is taking on the Conservative Brooke Hull.

The seat will become part of the new unitary authority, North Yorkshire Council, from April 1. It is a large, rural division that includes Kirkby Malzeard, Galphay, Grantley, Sawley, Cundall, Dishforth, Melmerby and North Stainley as well as Masham.

Following last May’s local elections, the Conservatives’ control of the 90-member authority was significantly dented.

They now hold 47 seats, with 43 belonging to opposition parties so they currently have a slender majority of just four in Northallerton, adding extra importance to tomorrow’s by-election. A Liberal Democrat victory would reduce the Tories’ majority to just two.

Last May’s election in the division saw Ms Atkinson win 1,076 votes, followed by Ms Cunliffe-Lister, who stood as an independent, with 738 votes. Liberal Democrat candidate Judith Hooper received 620 votes.

To find out locations of polling booths visit here.

Brooke Hull — Conservative Party

Brooke Hull lives in Burnt Yates and is employed by the Skipton and Ripon Conservative Party Association.

Her husband is Nathan Hull, the Conservative county councillor for the Washburn and Birstwith division, and they have five children together.

Ms Hull said family was at the heart of her decision to stand.

She said:

“I have a large family, we live in the area and we want it to continue to be a great place to live. That’s a priority. Its all local, local, local really.”

Read more:

• Crucial Masham by-election result ‘too close to call’
• Green Party steps aside for upcoming Masham by-election

The 89 politicans that currently make up the council in Northallerton are overwhelmingly older males. Ms Hull hopes that by standing she can inspire younger women into politics.

She said:

“That’s why I stood, to be that example and role model. To say, you know what, it’s ok, get involved.”

Nationally, the Conservative Party is having a difficult time but Ms Hull said she believes voters will put those issues to one side and focus on things that matter to them. She said:

“At the end of the day you’ve got to let your voters know who they’re voting for, not just a party or a person, they’ve got to know what you stand for.”

For her, the key issues in the division include making sure young people can afford to live in the villages in which they grew up, tackling rural crime, supporting farmers and protecting the environment.

She added:

“They all matter to me and are on my doorstep.”

Felicity Cunliffe-Lister — Liberal Democrats

Ms Cunliffe-Lister has lived in Masham for 23 years and owns and runs the 20,000-acre Swinton Estate with her husband, which includes a luxury hotel and spa.

Ms Cunliffe-Lister believes she made a big impression during last year’s election but in order to win she needed to represent a party. She said the Liberal Democrats shared her “ethos and priorities.”

She hopes to give the rural division a strong voice on the new council. She believes the area has been neglected on Harrogate Borough Council, which will be abolished in less than two months’ time. 

Ms Cunliffe-Lister added:

“Masham is a long way from Harrogate and we’re sometimes left to our own devices. People feel like their votes are taken for granted up here.”

She said the key issues for people in the division are feelings of isolation due to unreliable public transport, the state of the roads and motorists speeding through villages. She backs the 20’s Plenty campaign in areas where the community wants it.

Ms Cunliffe-Lister also believes the new council needs to ensure the environment is at the top of its agenda.

“I really feel the environment needs to be given more of a priority at county council. There’s a lot of lip service. We need to stop talking about it and act.”

Additional reporting by Stuart Minting, Local Democracy Reporter