Strayside Sunday: Putin may end up with the upper hand

Strayside Sunday is our monthly political opinion column. It is written by Paul Baverstock, former Director of Communications for the Conservative Party. 

I spent my school years keenly aware of Cold War realpolitik, and of the unthinkable nuclear consequences, should cold turn hot. 1983, when I was 16, saw the release of nuclear war film The Day After, to be followed in 1984 by the release of the lower budget (British set and made) Threads, bleaker and more frightening in measures equal. My teenage years, and those of my peer group, passed on red alert, with any siren sound in the valley causing a flash of pulse quickening panic. Was this to be the beginning of the end?

I’m reminded of this of course by current events in Ukraine. At time of writing, we are 12 days into Russia’s invasion. Yet, brave Ukraine, led by President Volodymyr Zelensky, resists. Russia’s superior force impeded by courageous and dogged Ukrainian defence and, it seems, handicapped by over ambitious strategic planning, inept military leadership and sagging soldierly morale. We watch helplessly from the side-lines as Ukrainian citizens suffer what seems to be indiscriminate bombardment, but which must be bombardment by cruel design.

We wince, embarrassed by the sure knowledge that, hitherto, we in the UK have turned a blind eye to the dirty Russian money laundering through London and Surrey’s perpetually empty, always modernising mansions and penthouses. So now we applaud our government and those of our NATO and European allies as they move to punish Russia through the imposition of severe sanctions and financial restrictions or economic penalties. We applaud international businesses from Apple and Ikea, to TikTok and Zara, and our local big brands Harrogate Spring Water and Yorkshire Tea -all of whom have ceased operations in Russia.  And we applaud the delivery of our and our allies anti-tank and other weapons to assist Ukraine’s fighters in eking out another hour, perhaps another day of resistance.

What we cannot do for Ukraine, what we must not do, so the orthodoxy goes, is to do what we all know it would take to give them a real chance of victory; we cannot put NATO boots on the ground, nor can we institute a no-fly zone. Why? Because to do so would put us in direct conflict with Russia, a shooting war with a Russia led by an increasingly unstable dictator who has threatened, in none too subtle terms, to use his arsenal of nuclear weapons against us. And, after all, Ukraine isn’t a NATO member, so can’t benefit from Article 5 protections. We dare not risk Putin’s ire nor a nuclear conflagration so, ergo, we send humanitarian aid and military supplies, and we wait. We wait for the inevitable and tragic moment when Russia overruns Kyiv and its sister cities, kills or imprisons Ukraine’s democratically elected leadership, installs a puppet government, and claims the country for its own.  When that happens – although every ounce of my being wishes that it were “if” it happens – when that happens, Russia and NATO will face each other across the European borders of, among others, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia and Poland. And when we do President Putin will know that we in NATO have already failed his test of our nerve. He will hold the upper hand.

During my school days it was widely held that MAD (the doctrine of mutually assured destruction) kept the nuclear peace.  Rational actors bound inaction by the fact that war would mean the end of everything. I worry now that we will face a new asymmetrical nuclear threat, one in which the main protagonist is willing to play a game with the highest of all stakes, while we will not. If we get to that point, as well we might, we may yet regret saying no to a no-fly zone for Ukraine.

Meanwhile there is more than a hint of bathos in the story of retired and decorated Harrogate fireman Bruce Reid. Mr. Reid flew to Poland this week and made his way to the Ukrainian border, intent on volunteering his firefighting services. Told that he should instead find his way 30 miles across the border to the Yavoriv military base, where he would be equipped and taught to fight, Mr. Reid turned back, returning to his 10-year-old granddaughter and the rest of his worried-sick family. No matter, Mr. Reid’s status as a hero is already cemented in my view by his years of bravery in the Fire Service, and by his willingness to volunteer those special skills in the service of Ukraine.

Against this backdrop of heart-breaking world affairs, it seems somehow small to have a go at an obviously failed British politician.  But I’m so blood boilingly angry about the announcement of a Knighthood last week for Sir, yes Sir! Gavin Williamson that I can’t help myself. Mr. Williamson was a serial failure in government. But as an ex-whip he knows where Boris’ bodies are buried so needs to be kept quiet. He doesn’t deserve it and it thoroughly demeans the honours system.

If we are going to face another Cold War then we will all have to believe in our way of life and government to face down Russia.  To ask that level of commitment and sacrifice, to ask us to follow the example of Ukraine, requires our system of government to retain its moral authority. Giving a gong to this man does not help build confidence.

That’s my Strayside Sunday.

Read More:

 

Strayside Sunday: Return to lockdown shines a light on those leading us

Strayside Sunday is our weekly political opinion column. It is written by Paul Baverstock, former Director of Communications for the Conservative Party. 

Here we are again.

Locked down tight. Shielding from the any one of the three Covid-19 variants currently spreading across the land at exponentially increasing rates. Working from home if at all possible and avoiding all but necessary travel. Obsessively checking and rechecking our place in the vaccination queue and hoping against hope that the ability of the NHS to get vaccines into the arms of the population matches the prodigious available supply of those vaccines.

I fully support Boris Johnson’s decision to return to a national lockdown. With record numbers of positive Covid-19 tests being reported each and every day and as high dependency and critical care beds in our hospitals approach full capacity, he and the leaders of the Kingdom’s devolved parliaments had little choice but to turn the door key once more. Sir Keir Starmer, who is quickly establishing a reputation for himself as both Cassandra and Statesman, gave the Prime Minister his fulsome support. Clearly he has been spooked by the confidential briefings on the spread of Covid-19 he receives as Leader of Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition. Regardless, we should laud him for his principled stance.

One person to whom the nom de guerre Statesman could never be attached is Gavin Williamson. Surely Mr Williamson can now confidently be ranked as the worst Education Secretary to have ever graced the government benches. Schools’ leaders and staff are in open revolt, stoked up as ever by their unions, angered by Mr Williamson’s combination of myopia, lettuce-like communication skills (green, wet and limp) and post-hoc policy announcements.

Parents must again help school their children at home and confront a patchwork quilt of online educational provision, which follows, broadly speaking, the established pattern that those who would benefit most from excellent services are those least likely to have the opportunity to do so. And those parents least able to afford the required time away from work to help their children learn are faced with the worst of Hobson’s choices: work to earn now and limit their children’s educational opportunities or prioritise educating the kids and struggle to earn the money needed to put food on the table.

Mr Williamson is self-regarding and childish (the man keeps a Tarantula on his House of Commons office desk for ‘House of Cards’ effect, for goodness’ sake), he is dishonourable (Theresa May sacked him as Secretary of State for Defence because she had “compelling evidence” he had leaked confidential and sensitive National Security Council – he denied it but everyone in Westminster didn’t believe him for a minute, such is his reputation for cheap and transparent politicking), he is, well, a bit thick (which we ought to forgive him for) and, given that, inexplicably arrogant (which we shouldn’t).

In the end, though, I believe that we get the politicians we deserve. If I’m right, the current crop of British politicians serve only to confront us with the inconvenient truth of our just desserts. The view in the mirror of our public life is unedifying. To change it we have to care more, watch more, say more and do more. We must. If we don’t, there is every danger that we will follow in the misguided footsteps of the United States and undermine the fabric of our polity so as to expose its limited foundations and character.

It’s remarkable that a third national lockdown in the United Kingdom is only the second story this week, and second by a long chalk. The events in Washington DC on January 6 and 7 were truly extraordinary. A sitting President walked into the garden of the White House and incited the supporters he has anyway spent four years inflaming to walk down Pennsylvania Avenue, lay siege to and storm the Capitol building that is home to both houses of Congress. This on the day of a joint sitting to ratify the US Electoral College votes and elevate the Biden/Harris ticket to power.

The MAGA (Make America Great Again) gang overran the Capitol Hill police and security staff and tried to establish mob rule. Windows were smashed, crash barriers were upended, walls were scaled, offices were occupied, weapons were brandished, a woman died of gunshot wounds and three others lost their lives. Donald Trump almost got his Presidential death wish, to bring down American democracy because it didn’t give him the electoral result he wanted.

Trump, his family and assorted sycophants have brought low the United States’ reputation as the cradle of democracy. Using his bully pulpit, the social media wild west, friendly and partisan television networks, toadying public officials, a successful populism that enflames and exploits the prejudices of the ignorant, 60 fallacious lawsuits and pure brass neck, this man tried everything to cling on to the power he lost in November’s elections. Thank goodness that America’s system of government and judiciary held in the face of such a brazen assault. The alternative is unthinkable.

Unless the powder keg explodes between now and January 20, Joe Biden will be sworn in as the 46th US President that day. Frighteningly, a YouGov poll of Republican voters conducted this week reports that fully 45% of them believe that Biden’s Democrats stole the election.  Biden will consequently step into a smouldering crucible, packed with the combustible tinder of opposing views. For all our sakes, we have to hope his unique political emollience can walk the US back from the brink.

That’s my Strayside Sunday.