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There was much talk at the last general election about the collapse of Labour’s red wall in its northern heartlands.

Today’s York and North Yorkshire mayoral election was an opportunity to see if the Conservatives’ blue wall of control in England’s largest county was equally wobbly.

It had certainly been creaking: North Yorkshire Council’s Conservative rule is propped up by three independents and Labour’s Keir Mather overturned a large Conservative majority at last year’s Selby and Ainsty by-election.

But surely true blue North Yorkshire, home of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, would deliver some succour to the Tories after a bruising night of local election results?

Curiously, Andrew Jones, the Conservative MP for Harrogate and Knaresborough, was not at Harrogate Convention Centre to support Keane Duncan. His Liberal Democrat rival Tom Gordon, whose mother was re-elected for the Lib Dems in Knottingley and Ferrybridge on Wakefield Council, arrived later in the day to support Felicity Cunliffe-Lister.

Nevertheless activists for both parties turned out in force.

It soon became apparent this was a two-horse race. Ms Cunliffe-Lister said long before the result was declared she hoped to finish a “good third”, acknowledging her party’s lengthy selection process meant she entered the race too late.

Keane Duncan pictured after arriving for the count.

Politicians on all sides leaned towards a Labour victory when we probed but nobody seemed particularly confident. When Conservative Ben Houchen retained the Tees Valley mayoralty, it appeared a good omen and when the turnout was announced at a higher-than-expected 30% it further raised hopes because it suggested Tory voters had not stayed home after all.

Had Mr Duncan’s energetic campaign and machine gun fire of ambitious policy announcements done the trick?

Felicity Cunliffe-Lister

Ms Cunliffe-Lister, Green candidate Kevin Foster and Independents Keith Tordoff and Paul Haslam were happy to talk and mingle but as is often the case at election counts, the favourites were largely invisible. When we approached a local Labour activist for a comment on how it was going, we were hastily marched to a regional media person who was non-committal.

Mr Duncan eventually arrived, with North Yorkshire Council leader Carl Les not far behind. Mr Skaith, looking like he’d been dressed by the same tailor as Labour leader Keir Starmer, was barely seen until the declaration loomed.

Shortly before 2.30pm, an election official briefed the media ‘not to go for a long walk’ as the result was imminent. We were also warned that if it were close — which seemed a distinct possibility — a recount would be held.

The candidates disappeared into a room to be told the results and re-emerged poker faced. But there was a strong clue when a Green politician shook Mr Skaith’s hand.

Mr Skaith’s near 15,000 winning margin was wider than anyone we spoke to predicted. What was even more surprising was that he came within 3,500 votes of beating Mr Duncan in North Yorkshire before his predicted strong support in Labour-run York saw him home.

His supporters whooped while Mr Duncan graciously applauded and patiently gave interviews to a line of journalists.

Had his bold claims, including buying the Grand Hotel at Scarborough, blown up in his face? He claimed not, suggesting the ‘national picture’ was the main factor before insisting he would continue his role as the councillor in charge of highways at North Yorkshire Council. Back to answering questions on the Harrogate Station Gateway…

Two hours after the result, Mr Skaith had hotfooted it to Northallerton Football Club where he stood alongside Mr Starmer and Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves for one of those stage managed media calls in front of an over-excitable crowd of placard-waving supporters. It was a rather bizarre end to a remarkable day.

Mr Starmer hailed it a “victory in Tory heartlands”. A chunk had indeed been taken out of the blue wall. Will it come crashing down in long-term Tory seats Harrogate and Knaresborough, or Skipton and Ripon, at the next general election?

You can recapture all today’s action in our live blog here.

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Tense day ends in clear victory for Labour’s Harrogate-born mayor

Labour’s David Skaith emerged as the clear winner today in the race to become York and North Yorkshire’s first directly elected mayor.

Mr Skaith beat Conservative rival Keane Duncan by almost 15,000 votes, in a result announced at Harrogate Convention Centre at about 2.30pm this afternoon.

The margin of victory was wider than many people expected at the count, where tension was high.

Conservative Ben Houchen’s mayoral victory in Tees Valley raised hopes that Mr Duncan could pull off a similar victory. But it was not to be.

Mr Duncan narrowly won the vote in North Yorkshire by 44,794 votes to Mr Skaith’s 41,122 but the Labour man’s strong York base saw him cruise home.

Liberal Democrat Felicity Cunliffe- Lister was a distant third, ahead of Green Kevin Foster,

Independents Keith Tordoff and Paul Haslam trailed home but both passed 10,000 votes.

Harrogate-born Mr Skaith, who runs a business in York, will now oversee the new York and North Yorkshire Combined Authority, which has devolved powers from Westminster and an annual budget of about £18 million.

It means there are now Labour mayors in North Yorkshire, West Yorkshire and South Yorkshire.

You can relive our live blog from the convention centre here.

FINAL RESULT

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As it happened: Labour’s David Skaith wins North Yorkshire mayoral election

Labour’s David Skaith was elected mayor of York and North Yorkshire at Harrogate Convention Centre today.

Mr Skaith will be paid £81,300-a-year to lead the new York and North Yorkshire Combined Authority, overseeing an annual budget of £18 million. He will have new devolved powers from Westminster and will champion the largest geographical region of any mayor.

Here’s a look back at today’s election count at Harrogate Convention Centre.

2.41pm: Keane Duncan magnanimous in defeat

The Conservative candidate was well beaten but he applauded winner David Skaith and is giving interviews now to a long list of journalists.

We have grabbed a word with him and all the other candidates. Look out for extensive reaction and analysis on the Stray Ferret over the next few days.

2.34pm: Final vote

2.29pm: Clear win for Labour

David Skaith is giving his acceptance speech. The final result was drowned out but he beat Conservative Keane Duncan by about 15,000 votes.

2.24pm: LABOUR’S DAVID SKAITH WINS!

2.20pm: Candidates reappear

Poker faces all round but someone just shook David Skaith’s hand. Has he won? We are awaiting the announcement.

2.08pm: Candidates being told results

Returning officer Richard Flinton announces provisional results being shared with candidates and election agents. They have disappeared into a room.

The result should follow very soon, unless one of the candidates is granted a recount.

This is tense — nobody seems to be making any confident predictions but most people are leaning towards Labour’s David Skaith.

2.05pm: Result expected imminently

A media person has just told us ‘don’t go for any long walks’ as a result is due very soon.

2pm: David Skaith returns

The elusive Labour candidate is back in the building, looking understandably pensive.

1.49pm: Result within the hour?

A big screen here at Harrogate Convention Centre shows the counts at the four other locations, and all appear to have finished.

That could mean a result is not far away. We are hearing it could be as soon as half an hour. But there is also the possibility of a recount if it is close.

 

1.35pm: Will high turnout help Tories?

There is speculation that the higher than expected turnout could suit the Conservatives.

There were fears among Tories that many of their voters would stay at home but the 30% turnout has buoyed hopes that a good proportion did register their votes yesterday.

A 30% turnout may not seem that high but by comparison, the final North Yorkshire Police, Fire and Crime Commissioner election, won by Conservative Zoe Metcalfe in 2021, attracted a 14% turnout.

Remember, the commissioner’s role will be taken over by the new mayor.

1.29pm: Nervous moments as result looms

There’s not much happening now. But the result can ony happen as fast as the slowest count. We understand one of the two Scarborough counts has finished but there are also counts in Northallerton and York.

We managed a word with Keane Duncan, who seems cheerful and agredd to pose for a photo but declined to comment until afterwards.

There is still no great certainty here, other than that it’s a two-horse race between the Conservatives and Labour, whose candidate David Skaith has not been seen since his brief appearance earlier.

1.05pm: Conservative candidate Keane Duncan arrives

Conservative candidate Keane Duncan has arrived, which means all six candidates have been spotted at Harrogate Convention Centre. He’s smiling and chatting with local Conservatives but these must be nervous moments.

Still no sign of Andrew Jones or Tom Gordon.

12.44pm: Labour still saying ‘too close to call’

About the only people not predicting a Labour victory here today are the Labour Party.

We just had a quick word with the regional media team who said they were very wary of predictions, and were still waiting for updates from the other counts taking place in York, Scarborough and Northallerton.

David Skaith has still not returned since his brief appearance earlier. The only other candidate who does not appear to be in the room here is Conservative Keane Duncan.

12.29pm: Ben Houchen wins – good omen for Tories?

Conservative Ben Houchen has just been declared the winner of the Tees Valley mayoral election. Some were predicting his defeat — is this a good sign for the Tories a few miles south in North Yorkshire?

12.02pm: Lib Dem candidate thinks she will finish third

It appears to be a straight fight between the Conservatives and Labour, with most people predicting a Labour win — but nobody appears to be doing so with any great certainty.

Lib Dem candidate Felicity Cunliffe-Lister says it looks like she may finish third. She adds:

“I was a little bit late entering the race than I would have liked. It just took a long time for the selection process so I didn’t hit the ground running,”

Ms Cunliffe-Lister says she is the only candidate to have been to all 17 hustings, and says she has enjoyed her foray into politics since being elected as Lib Dem councillor, a role she continues to fulfil.

ps the man in the previous post was Don Mackenzie, the former highways chief on North Yorkshire County Council.

11.48am: Count in full swing

Ballots are being counted. Quick question – who is the man standing with his back to the camera? Clue — he was a major figure in local politics until the 2022 local elections.

11.42am: 37 media outlets expected

There is a lot of media interest in the election of the county’s first mayor. Officials say 37 media outlets have been accredited. The media area is starting to fill up.

11.38am: David Skaith arrives

Labour candidate David Skaith has arrived at Harrogate Convention Centre. We asked for a photo, something the other four candidates here so far have obliged us with, but he politely declined, saying he was popping out and would be back.

11.34am: Tories and Lib Dems on opposite tables.

Elections are tribal: the Lib Dems are on the left table; the Conservatives are on the right. There isn’t much interaction between the two.

No sign yet of Andrew Jones, the Conservative MP for Harrogate and Knaresborough, or Tom Gordon, the Lib Dem who wants to succeed him. We understand Mr Gordon’s mother is standing for election in West Yorkshire and he is expected later.

11.26am: Turnout is 30%

Returning officer Richard Flinton announces the figure.

11.20am: Result could be declared early afternoon

The verification process, which was due to end at noon, is over and the word is the result could be declared early, at about 2pm, but election counts operate in a parallel universe full of rumours and nothing is confirmed.

We are told, however, the turnout figure is expected shortly. There’s a rumour (that word again) the figure is 30% at the Northallerton count, which isn’t too shabby for a mayoral election.

11.06am: Green candidate predicts Labour win

Kevin Foster, the Green Party candidate, is at Harrogate Convention Centre with his daughter (pictured above). Four of the six candidates appear to be here now, the exceptions being Conservative Keane Duncan and Labour’s David Skaith.

Mr Foster says he thinks Labour have done better here than expected and will win overall, although he suspects it will be close, with a margin of between one and five percent.

As for himself, he says he hopes to get between 5% and 10% of the vote. Candidates need 5% to get their £5.000 deposit back. He says the Greens are a small party that only received 220 donations in North Yorkshire last year.

10.52am: Strong turnout of Lib Dems at convention centre

There is a large turnout of local Lib Dem activists and councillors, Candidate Felicity Cunliffe-Lister is sporting a rosette.

10.43am: Independent candidate predicts Labour win

Bilton councillor Paul Haslam, who left the Conservatives to stand as an independent in the mayoral contest, says he gets the sense the voting has been “tribal” and he feels David Skaith will win overall.

10.27am: Rumours begin

The count has yet to begin but supporters at the verification process are seeing crosses on ballots and making claims. So NOTHING IS CONFIRMED but the whisper is the Liberal Democrats are doing well at this count, the Greens are doing poorly and Keith Tordoff is the leading independent.

Remember, the Harrogate count includes votes cast in the Harrogate and Knaresborough, Selby and Ainsty and part of the new Wetherby and Easingwold constituencies, so about two-and-a-half constituencies.

10.16am: First candidate arrives

Independent Keith Tordoff, looking dapper and sounding chipper, is the first candidate to arrive. He says he’s attended every hustings he’s been invited to — about 17 — and achieved a broad coalition of support from diverse groups including the Yorkshire Party, local mosques and Reform UK.

He says:

“Win, lose or draw I will wake up happy tomorrow because I am healthy and I love life.”

Mr Tordoff says he feels the mayor should be independent because a Labour mayor would favour Labour-controlled City of York council and a Conservative mayor would favour Tory-controlled North Yorkshire Council.

10.10am: 120 counters in Harrogate

There are 120 counters here at Harrogate Convention Centre. Counts are also taking place at Northallerton and Scarborough but the result will be declared here,

There were 668 polling stations across York and North Yorkshire yesterday, which were manned by 2,000 volunteers. The size of the electorate is 485,105 in North Yorkshire and 154,105 in York. The turnout still remains unknown.

9.39am: Verification process underway

Richard Flinton

Returning officer Richard Flinton, the chief executive of North Yorkshire Council, is expected to declare the result mid-afternoon. He has just taken to a plinth to announce the verification process is underway. The actual count is due to start at noon.

9.15am: Will Tory pain extend to North Yorkshire?

It’s been a bad night for the Conservatives, with losses in the Blackpool South by-election and in council elections. Will the pain extend to the traditional Tory heartlands of North Yorkshire in today’s mayoral vote? We will provide update throughout the day from Harrogate Convention Centre, where the winner is expected to be announced this afternoon.

Political leaders say North Yorkshire mayor vote ‘too close to call’

Political leaders in North Yorkshire and York have said the region’s first mayoral election was “too close to call” as voters went to the polls.

Ahead of the result of the vote being declared at Harrogate Convention Centre at around lunchtime on Friday (May 3), bookmakers had Labour’s David Skaith as favourite to win the mayoralty, with Labrokes offering odds of 2/5 on him and 15/8 on Conservative Keane Duncan.

At the same time another national bookmaker, William Hill, also had Mr Skaith as the most likely winner, with odds of 4/9 on him and 7/4 for Mr Duncan.

Both bookmakers were offering 25/1 on Liberal Democrat Felicity Cunliffe Lister and 33/1 on Green Party candidate Kevin Foster.

Neither bookmaker were displaying odds for the Independent candidates Paul Haslam and  Keith Tordoff.

As voting got underway at 668 polling stations across York and North Yorkshire, local politicians agreed a Labour victory in the traditionally Tory-dominated area which features some of the safest Conservative constituencies in the country, would represent a remarkable result.

Some leading Labour Party figures in the area said with the fine weather and leading more of the 640,006 electorate turn out to vote they were quite confident in their candidate would beat Mr Duncan, albeit by a fairly narrow margin.

Speaking privately, senior Tories said the result was “too close to call”, despite the Labour needing a significant shift towards the party from the most recent local government elections.

Two years ago in North Yorkshire the Conservative share of the vote fell from 53.3 per cent in 2017 to 41.2 per cent, while Labour secured 17.3 per cent, Liberal and Liberal Democrats 17.1 per cent, Independents 13.4 per cent and the Green Party 9.8 per cent.

In York, the 2023 elections saw Labour gain 42.4 per cent of the vote, the Liberal Democrats 31.1 per cent, Conservatives 13.8 per cent and the Green Party 11.1 per cent.

Standing beside Harrogate’s cenotaph with placards painted by his wife Kath, Independent candidate Mr Haslam said he had already spent hours “reminding people to vote” by the town’s busy Prince of Wales and Empress roundabouts.

It is understood while the majority of postal votes are usually returned only about 50 per cent of the postal votes had been returned before the polls opened, with a significantly lower rate of return in North Yorkshire than York.

Mr Haslam said:

“It suggests to me that traditional Conservative voters are staying home as many of the postal voters are Tories.”

Elsewhere, staff at polling stations in the Thirsk and Northallerton area reported a “steady trickle” of residents turning out to vote.

After voting at Thirsk and Sowerby Town Hall, an elderly couple who asked not to be named said they had voted as they felt it their “duty to do so”, despite not fully understanding the role and responsibilities of the mayor.

They added:

“As far as we can tell the mayor will be some sort of figurehead to get more government funding for the area, so it’s got to be a good thing.”

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