The Labour Party has begun the process of finding a candidate for Skipton and Ripon at the next general election.
The constituency has been held by the Conservatives since it was created in 1983.
Julian Smith, who has been MP since 2010, increased his majority to 23,694 at the last election in 2019 when he won 60% of the vote.
Although the rural constituency is widely regarded as a safe Tory seat, Labour was boosted by political forecasting website Electoral Calculus recently claiming it had a 53% chance of gaining it.
Labour invited potential candidates to put forward their names on Friday last week (December 8). The deadline for applying is January 10.
Brian McDaid, a Skipton town councillor who finished runner-up to Mr Smith in 2019 with 11,266 votes, said he intended to seek the party nomination again.
With an election expected next year, Mr McDaid said he hoped a candidate would be selected quickly to allow as much time as possible for campaigning.
He said:
“Labour’s visibility in Skipton and Ripon has increased a lot. We have worked hard to show people that the Lib Dems aren’t the second party.
“We have done a lot of door knocking and the phrase ‘where is Julian Smith and what has he contributed locally?’ comes up a lot.”
Skipton Town Council has five Labour councillors, but Ripon City Council has none and Mr McDaid admitted the party needed to focus more on the city.

Keir Mather’s by-election success in Selby and Ainsty.
He said the party had been inspired by Keir Mather’s victory in July’s Selby and Ainsty by-election, when he overturned a 20,137 Conservative majority to win the seat for Labour.
He added:
“Polls are showing it could be a Labour gain but we aren’t taking anything for granted.”
Read more:
- Ripon City Council withdraws support for cathedral development
- Labour overturns huge Tory majority to win Selby and Ainsty by-election
Speed limit could be reduced on A61 Harrogate to Ripon Road
The speed limit on the main road between Harrogate and Ripon could be reduced from 60mph to 50mph following recent fatal accidents.
Four people, including two children, were killed in two separate incidents in the space of eight days on the A61 at South Stainley in late August and early September.
Rebecca Brewins, who lives alongside the road and lost her parents in a crash at South Stainley 11 years ago, has led a campaign to make the road safer following the latest deaths.
She and other residents met Skipton and Ripon MP Julian Smith, who subsequently urged North Yorkshire Council to act.
Now council chief executive Richard Flinton has indicated it is considering a speed reduction.

Police at the scene of the triple fatality on September 3.
In a letter to Mr Smith, seen by the Stray Ferret, Mr Flinton wrote:
“The reports for the recent fatal collisions are currently being drafted, but I am able to advise that the road environment was not considered to have been a factor in the cause of either fatal collision
“Therefore, the recommendations are limited to small scale localised improvements, such as the cleaning of road signs and refreshing of white lines.
“Nevertheless, in recognition of community concerns, North Yorkshire Council is currently carrying out a series of speed surveys along the A61, with a view to reducing the speed limit from 60mph to 50mph.
“Whilst mean speeds are unlikely to be excessive, the intention here is to set the expectations of the motorist, of the lack of overtaking opportunities, bends and other hazards associated with a high speed rural road.”
Read more:
- Inquest opens into 15-year-old girl killed in A61 crash at South Stainley
- Another collision on A61 Ripon Road at South Stainley
Mr Flinton added the council was expected to consult on introducing a traffic regulation order to reduce the speed limit from the national default speed limit of 60mph.
Mr Flinton also said engineers will undertake “a full route analysis of the A61” to identify what else can be done to make the road safer.
The short overtaking bend in South Stainley is a particular cause for concern, but Mr Flintoff indicated getting rid of it “has the potential at least, to increase driver frustration and hence collision risk” because it presented one of the few opportunities to pass slow moving vehicles between Ripon and Harrogate.
‘Time to make this road safe’
Responding to Mr Flinton’s comments, Ms Brewins said:
“Change is vital to the safety and welfare of the local community and indeed anyone who uses the A61.
“Over the years there has been resistance to reviewing the speed and layout of the A61, which has led to multiple accidents and sadly many deaths.,
“As well as the speed of the A61, the overtaking lane, where sadly three deaths recently occurred, is a major concern. Historically this lane allowed vehicles to overtake tractors but has become dated, leading to daily accidents, aggressive driving and many nbear misses. It is far too short to overtake safely, has a turning area into priovate dwellings and is in dire need of reviewing.
“I am glad to hear Mr Flinton is taking this seriously and looking at the necessary changes to avoid further fatal accidents.
“This has been overlooked and ignored for too many years. It really is time to male this road safe.”

The A61 at South Stainley.
Mr Smith said inadequate overtaking lanes, excessive speed limits, widespread use of the road as an impromptu racetrack by motorcyclists, and rat-running through Ripley village were among the concerns raised at his meeting with residents.
The Conservative MP said:
“A horrific crash took the lives of a fifteen-year-old girl’s mum, brother and sister.
“While I have been humbled by the astonishing generosity of friends, local residents and perfect strangers alike, raising nearly £50,000 for her since, we must also ensure that tragic accidents like this do not happen again.
“I’m grateful to North Yorkshire Council and North Yorkshire Police for their swift response to the recent spate of accidents on the A61, as well as those residents who met with me two weeks ago to share their concerns, as we continue to look for a solution.”
MPs Watch: HS2, Yorkshire Water and maiden speeches
Every month the Stray Ferret tries to find out what our local MPs have been up to in their constituencies and in the House of Commons.
In October, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced that the northern leg of HS2 would be scrapped and Yorkshire Water unveiled a £7.8 billion investment plan.
Meanwhile, Keir Mather, Selby and Ainsty MP which includes south Harrogate, made his maiden speech in the House of Commons.
We Selby and Ainsty MP Keir Mather if they would like to highlight anything in particular, but did not receive a response.
Here is what we know after analysing their online presence.

Andrew Jones, Harrogate and Knaresborough MP.
In Harrogate and Knaresborough, here is what we found on Mr Jones:
- On October 3, Mr Jones welcomed a £7.8 billion investment plan being submitted by Yorkshire Water.
- On October 4, Mr Jones attended the Conservative Party conference and was present for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s speech.
- Following the speech, Mr Jones said he was “disappointed” with the decision to scrap the northern leg of the HS2 project.
- On October 5, he met with the owners of the former McColls store in Starbeck who are expected to unveil plans for the building this year.
- On the same day, Mr Jones attended the opening of the Rachel Daly pitch at Killinghall Nomads JFC.
- On October 18, Mr Jones called for a 138-home development on Water Lane in Knaresborough to be cancelled. He also raised the issue in the House of Commons on October 16.
- On October 19, he hosted the Street Works UK awards in Parliament.
- Mr Jones announced on the same day that he would be objecting to a planned asphalt plan at Allerton Park near Knaresborough.
- On October 21, he visited Harrogate synagogue to discuss events in Israel and Gaza.
- On October 28, he met with the Harrogate Imam to discuss events in Isreal and Gaza.
When we contacted Mr Jones for comment, his office sent a list of his engagements for September.
They included attending a roundtable with the British Dental Association and a Northern Powerhouse Partnership Transport Reception. He also with members of Zero Carbon Harrogate and met a local dentist to discuss NHS dentistry.
Others included visiting Yorkshire Cancer Research’s new facility at Hornbeam Park, chairing a meeting of the European Statutory Instruments Committee and meeting leaders from Luminate Education Group at a reception in the House of Commons.

Julian Smith, MP for Ripon and Skipton.
In Ripon, here is what we found on Mr Smith:
- Mr Smith made no spoken contributions in the House of Commons in October.
- On October 11, Mr Smith tweeted that he had met residents and North Yorkshire Council to discuss recent deaths on the A61 at South Stainley and to campaign for a lower speed limit.
- On October 16, Mr Smith visited the Ripon Inn ahead of its opening.
- Mr Smith posted on his website on October 22 that he had visited Sharow Church of England Primary School to meet with its headteacher and answer questions from pupils.
- Mr Smith updated his website 11 times in October, which included posts promoting government initiatives and visits within his constituency.
When we contacted Mr Smith’s for comment, his office sent a roundup of his engagements for October.
Among them included visiting local schools and businesses in Skipton and Ripon, including Cundall Manor School.
Meanwhile, he also visited The Beer Engine in Skipton and met with Bentham resident, Viv Barclay, who will attempt to become the oldest woman to row solo across the Atlantic Ocean.

Keir Mather, Selby and Ainsty MP.
In Selby and Ainsty, which includes rural south Harrogate, here is what we found on Mr Mather:
- Mr Mather posted 11 times on his Facebook page in October. None of the updates related to areas of his constituency which fall in Harrogate.
- On October 16, Mr Mather made his maiden speech in the House of Commons.
- On October 23, Mr Mather asked the minister for environment, Rebecca Pow, how she would be working with the Environment Agency to support people during Storm Babet.
- He joined a debate on the sustainability of rural post offices in Westminster Hall on October 25.
Read more:
- MPs Watch: New MP, River Nidd and Mayoral election
- MPs Watch: Climate change, NHS dentists and Harrogate Station Gateway saga
MPs Watch: Climate change, NHS dentists and Harrogate Station Gateway saga
Every month the Stray Ferret tries to find out what our local MPs have been up to in their constituencies and in the House of Commons.
In September, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced a major shift in the government’s climate policies, including delaying the ban on the sale of diesel and petrol cars.
Meanwhile, in Harrogate, the saga over the Station Gateway project continued with council officials announcing the authority would explore alternative options for the scheme.
We asked Ripon MP Julian Smith and Selby and Ainsty MP Keir Mather if they would like to highlight anything in particular, but did not receive a response.
Here is what we know after analysing their online presence.

Andrew Jones, Harrogate and Knaresborough MP.
In Harrogate and Knaresborough, here is what we found on Mr Jones:
- On September 1, Mr Jones attended a Harrogate war memorial centenary event.
- Mr Jones met with Alzheimer’s Research UK in Parliament on September 6.
- On September 8, he met with North Yorkshire and Humber Integrated Care Board, alongside regional MPs, to discuss NHS dentistry.
- Mr Jones then raised the issue of NHS dentistry access in Harrogate during Prime Minister’s Question Time on September 13.
- On September 14, he raised a question to the Department for Business and Trade regarding support for companies exporting and asked the Leader of the House for a debate on SEND funding.
- He chaired a meeting of the All-Party Parliamentary Group for Transport across the North.
- Mr Jones described the Prime Minister’s announcement of a shift in climate policy as “practical and pragmatic” on September 21.
- Mr Jones visited the refurbished Harrogate Leisure and Wellness Centre on September 22.
- On September 25, he met with constituents to discuss anti-social behaviour concerns at the former Kimberley Hotel.
- He told the Local Democracy Reporting Service on September 26 that he hoped North Yorkshire Council will use money earmarked for the £11.2m Station Gateway to create a more welcoming space in Harrogate.
When we contacted Mr Jones for comment, his office sent a list of his engagements for September.
They included holding constituency surgeries, supporting Nidd Action Group’s Action Day at the Lido Leisure Park in Knaresborough and holding a roundtable with Harrogate-based cyclists to discuss local cycling infrastructure.
Others included meeting with representatives of the Women’s Institute to support their Clean Rivers campaign, meeting the Jewish Leadership Council, Food and Drink Federation and Macmillan Cancer Support and visiting the site of the local mental health crisis line to learn more about how calls are handled by TEWV NHS Foundation Trust.

Julian Smith, MP for Ripon and Skipton.
In Ripon, here is what we found on Mr Smith:
- Mr Smith spoke three times in the House of Commons in September, two contributions were on Northern Ireland and another on paediatric acute-onset neuro- psychiatric syndrome.
- He visited Fountains Abbey near Ripon to be given an update on its plans to renovate the site.
- Mr Smith tweeted 14 times in September, which included to posts to promote various government grants and initiatives.
- He updated his website six times in September, which included one item specific to Ripon.

Keir Mather, Selby and Ainsty MP.
In Selby and Ainsty, which includes rural south Harrogate, here is what we found on Mr Mather:
- Mr Mather was sworn in as the new MP for Selby and Ainsty on September 4.
- He made 20 written questions to government departments in September, including topics such as access to GPs, anti-social behaviour and gender based violence.
- On September 1, Mr Mather tweeted that he met the chief executive of Yorkshire Housing, Nick Atkin, to discuss “how to win the race to net zero in North Yorkshire by investing in affordable and sustainable housing for all”.
- Mr Mather tweeted six times in September, which included topics such as meeting with the National Farmers’ Union and being sworn into parliament.
- He updated his Facebook page 11 times in September. Posts included SEND provision in Selby and sharing concerns over RAAC in schools.
- Mr Mather has yet to give his maiden speech in the House of Commons.
Read more:
- MPs Watch: New MP, River Nidd and Mayoral election
- Any vehicle can park in Knaresborough electric vehicle bays, says council
Calls for action after four deaths on main Ripon to Harrogate road
Residents and councillors have called for action after the latest spate of deaths on the main road between Ripon and Harrogate.
A mother and two children were killed on the A61 Ripon Road last Sunday, eight days after a 59-year-old man died.
Both incidents occurred near South Stainley — prompting calls for safety measures around the village, including a reduction in the 60mph speed limit.
South Stainley resident Rebecca Brewins lost both parents when their vehicle was hit by a lorry on the A61 at South Stainley 11 years ago.
Ms Brewins and husband Carl have contacted North Yorkshire Council, which is the highways authority, Julian Smith, the Conservative MP for Skipton and Ripon and South Stainley-with-Cayton Parish Council to enlist support following the latest deaths.
The Brewins, whose house is directly off the A61, said they were aware of at least seven fatal crashes on the road around South Stainley in recent years and the “horrendous” death toll could no longer be ignored.
Mr Brewins said the volume of traffic and the wide range of A61 road users that include tractors, cyclists, lorries and cars created particular problems on the winding route.

The short overtaking lane on a bend.
The road is mainly single carriageway but a short overtaking lane on a bend near the Brewins’ home exacerbated problems by encouraging reckless manoeuvres and sudden bursts of speed, he added.
Mr Brewins said:
“The road is getting busier — we are getting more houses and more cars.
“If a strip of road a mile long outside your house has seven deaths, surely you have to do something.”
Ms Brewins said she was told after her parents died the accident statistics didn’t justify traffic calming measures.
But she said crashes were common on the A61, particularly between South Stainley and Ripley, where the speed limit is 60mph. The speed limit varies between 40mph and 60mph in the opposite direction towards Ripon.
Ms Brewins said the road was a constant source of worry:
“When my eldest daughter learned to drive I was a nervous wreck. She got an electric car so it wouldn’t stall when she pulled out on to the road.
“While the limit is 60mph it encourages people to constantly speed up and slam on their brakes.”

Traffic is allowed to drive at 60mph through the area.
Villagers ‘traumatised’ by fatal crashes
Jane Pickering, chairman of South Stainley-with-Cayton Parish Council, said villagers had been “traumatised” by the latest fatal accidents and frustrated by the lack of action.
She said villagers had tried to help victims while emergency services were on their way and were left overwhelmed by shock and grief.
Ms Pickering questioned why lower speeds were permitted in other villages along the route, such as Wormald Green, but South Stainley remained at 60mph. She said:
“We have been flagging this issue for years.
“I will be taking this up again on behalf of the parish until something is done about it.”

The 36 bus stop at South Stainley.
Felicity Cunliffe-Lister, a Liberal Democrat whose Masham and Fountains division includes South Stainley, pledged support.
She told the Stray Ferret on Tuesday:
“I have spoken to the chair of the parish council today, and assured her I will be doing all that I can at County Hall to support the introduction of as many traffic calming and speed control measures as are necessary to make the road safer and – I hope – to avoid any more tragic accidents.”
Speed review
The Stray Ferret asked the council for data on road accidents around South Stainley and what action it planned to take in light of the recent spate of deaths.
A council accident graph said there had been 10 fatal accidents on the A61 since 2007.
Barrie Mason, the council’s assistant director of highways and transformation, said road safety was a priority and his thoughts were with the families and friends of recent victims.
He said the council worked with road safety partners across the county to make the roads safer, adding:
“We recently committed to undertaking a series of speed limit reviews across the county and the A61, along with other routes, will be investigated to see whether existing speed limits are appropriate.
“We are liaising with North Yorkshire Police as investigations into the fatal accidents are carried out. We cannot comment further before these investigations are complete.”
A council spokesperson said signs indicating the number of casualties on the road were removed more than 10 years ago.
The spokesperson added:
“They quickly became out of date, and in that location deemed to be a potentially dangerous obstruction on the road.”
They added the council had received five complaints relating to road safety concerns on this stretch of road over the last year and “most” had been in the last week.
We also asked Julian Smith, the Conservative MP for Skipton and Ripon, for his views on what should be done but did not receive a response.
Police are still appealing for witnesses to last weekend’s crash and dashcam footage.
You can email Julie.brown@northyorkshire.police.uk or call North Yorkshire Police on 101 and pass on information for incident 12230166439.
Read more:
MPs Watch: New MP, River Nidd and Mayoral election
Every month the Stray Ferret tries to find out what our local MPs have been up to in their constituencies and in the House of Commons.
In July, Labour’s Keir Mather became the new MP for Selby and Ainsty after overturning a 20,000 majority to unseat the Conservatives.
Meanwhile, the debate over the River Nidd bathing water status campaign continued and the Tories selected current North Yorkshire councillor, Keane Duncan, as their candidate for mayor of York and North Yorkshire.
We asked Ripon MP Julian Smith if he would like to highlight anything in particular, but did not receive a response.
Here is what we know after analysing their online presence.

Andrew Jones, Harrogate and Knaresborough MP.
In Harrogate and Knaresborough, here is what we found on Mr Jones:
- On July 5, Mr Jones welcomed the decision by rail companies not to close Harrogate station ticket office as part of plans to close hundreds of kiosks across the country.
- He also called for an apology from Lib Dem candidate Tom Gordon after he wrongly claimed the ticket office was due to close.
- Mr Jones called for a debate in parliament on July 13 over electric vehicle charging infrastructure. He said progress across the country had been “quite mixed”.
- On July 13, Mr Jones posted on his community news website that he hosted pupils from Harrogate Ladies College and St Aidan’s Church of England High School in parliament.
- Mr Jones welcomed the confirmation of Keane Duncan as Conservative candidate for Mayor of York and North Yorkshire on July 17.
- On July 25, Mr Jones defended his involvement in a campaign to designate the River Nidd at Knaresborough bathing water status after Liberal Democrat councillor Matt Walker accused him of using it as a “political tool”.
- Mr Jones also welcomed North Yorkshire Council’s backing for the campaign.
- On July 25, Mr Jones posted a video of him taking part in a “Take The Bus” campaign, which encourages more disabled and older people to use free bus travel.
When we contacted Mr Jones for comment, his office sent a list of his engagements for July.
They included holding constituency surgeries, hosting a reception in Parliament on behalf the Rail Delivery Group to increase awareness of sexual harassment on the rail network and visiting Springwater School to meet with the headteacher and chair of governors.
Others included visiting GirlGuiding West’s new headquarters development on Cornwall Road and hosting a meeting of the All-Party Parliamentary Group for Transport across the North to discuss the new strategic transport plan.

Julian Smith, MP for Ripon and Skipton.
In Ripon, here is what we found on Mr Smith:
- Mr Smith made no spoken contributions in the House of Commons in July.
- On July 21, Mr Smith met with the Ripon Military Heritage Trust to discuss the trust’s plans to preserve military heritage in the city.
- On July 22, Mr Smith tweeted his congratulations to Labour’s Keir Mather after his victory in the Selby and Ainsty by-election.
- Mr Smith posted 15 tweets on his Twitter account in July, which included promoting government grants and national funding announcements.
Read more:
- Labour overturns huge Tory majority to win Selby and Ainsty by-election
- Knaresborough councillor accuses MP of using Nidd sewage campaign as ‘political tool’
MPs Watch: Nigel Adams resignation, Boris Johnson report and a by-election
Every month the Stray Ferret tries to find out what our local MPs have been up to in their constituencies and in the House of Commons.
In June, Nigel Adams, Selby and Ainsty MP, resigned with immediate effect. The move came after the resignation of former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who was later found to have deliberately misled parliament by the Privileges Committee.
Meanwhile, 13 candidates have put their names forward to contest the Selby and Ainsty by-election. Voters will go to the polls on Thursday, July 20.
We asked Ripon MP Julian Smith if he would like to highlight anything in particular, but did not receive a response.
Here is what we know after analysing their online presence.

Andrew Jones, Harrogate and Knaresborough MP.
In Harrogate and Knaresborough, here is what we found on Mr Jones:
- Mr Jones attended the Harrogate Hospital Community Charity summer extravaganza on June 4.
- On June 8, Mr Jones spoke in the House of Commons to ask how the government would promote open access railways.
- On June 11, he attended the Army Foundation College Freedom Parade in Harrogate.
- Mr Jones also took part in a community litter pick in Bilton as part of the Great Big Green Week on June 11.
- Mr Jones also spoke in parliament to ask government what steps were being taken to support female entrepreneurs amid concern that the number of women starting businesses is below that of men.
- Mr Jones voted in the House of Commons for the Privileges Committee report on June 19.
- On June 22, Mr Jones weighed in on the debate over designating Harrogate’s Stray as common land. He there was “no positive reason for change”.
- Mr Jones gave Harrogate Ladies College prefects a tour of the Houses of Parliament on June 28.
When we contacted Mr Jones for comment, his office sent a list of his engagements for June.
Among those included hosting a charity coffee morning for Henshaws, attending the bed race in Knaresborough and taking part in a Barclays Business roundtable event at the West Park Hotel.
He also attended a National Farmers Union event on June 6 and filmed a video for World Environment Day.
Mr Jones’ office pointed out that his engagements and activities could also be found on his Community News Website and his Facebook and Instagram feeds.

Julian Smith, MP for Ripon and Skipton.
In Ripon, here is what we found on Mr Smith:
- On June 5, Mr Smith spoke in the House of Commons on the government building trust with the current inquiry into the coronavirus pandemic.
- Mr Smith voted in the House of Commons for the Privileges Committee report on June 19.
- On June 24, Mr Smith joined the Conservative by-election campaign in Selby and Ainsty.
- On June 28, Mr Smith attended a networking event with Ripon Business Improvement District where he heard concerns from local businesses.
- Mr Smith met with the Dean of Ripon Cathedral in Westminster on June 28. Among the discussion was refurbishment plans at Ripon Cathedral.
- Mr Smith updated his MPs constituency website 10 times throughout June.
Read more:
- Selby and Ainsty MP resigns with immediate effect
- Local MPs vote in favour of Privileges Committee report
Local MPs vote in favour of Privileges Committee report
The two local Conservative MPs voted in support of a report last night that found Boris Johnson deliberately misled MPs over lockdown parties.
The Commons backed the report by 354 votes to seven — however 225 MPs either abstained or did not turn up to vote, including Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.
Andrew Jones, who represents Harrogate and Knaresborough, and Julian Smith, who represents Skipton and Ripon, were among the 118 Tories who supported the report by parliament’s Privileges Committee.
Mr Smith tweeted afterwards “upholding the rules of parliament is key to our democracy”.
Tonight I voted to support the cross party privileges committee report. Boris Johnson did a number of positive things as Prime Minister, but upholding the rules of parliament is key to our democracy https://t.co/YFJIsOs1zU
— Julian Smith MP (@JulianSmithUK) June 19, 2023
Mr Jones indicated his intentions last week when he said:
“I called for the Privileges Committee investigation into this issue and I have supported its work. I will be voting on Monday to accept their recommendations in full.”
The cross-party committee’s report found Mr Johnson committed repeated offences when he said covid rules had been followed at No 10 at all times.
The Selby and Ainsty constituency, which covers part of the Harrogate district, does not currently have an MP following Nigel Adams’ resignation.
A by-election will take place on July 20.
Read more:
- Tories select replacement candidate for Selby and Ainsty by-election
- Yorkshire Party mayoral candidate quit after ‘chicken policy disagreement’
Tories on course to retain Harrogate and Knaresborough, says political forecaster
The Conservatives would retain Harrogate and Knaresborough while Labour could gain Selby and Ainsty if a general election were held tomorrow.
According to Electoral Calculus, a political forecasting company, Andrew Jones MP would win a fifth successive election in Harrogate.
Meanwhile, Labour would unseat the Tories in Selby and Ainsty, which includes areas of rural Harrogate, and Julian Smith, Skipton and Ripon MP, would retain his seat for the Conservatives but in a far closer contest.
Electoral Calculus uses past voting figures, polling trends and party support to predict the average outcome of seats in the House of Commons.
The chances of winning seats in Parliament has become particularly pertinent as a by-election looms in Selby and Ainsty next month and a general election is lined up for next year.
The Conservative campaign in Selby and Ainsty was thrown into disarray on Friday when its candidate, Michael Naughton, withdrew just days after being selected.
But with by-election fever mounting, we looked at the state of play locally according to Electoral Calculus.
Harrogate and Knaresborough
According to the political forecaster, Andrew Jones has a 67% chance of winning in Harrogate and Knaresborough.
Mr Jones, who has already confirmed he will stand at the next election, currently has a majority of 9,675.
The website says the Liberal Democrats have a 20% chance of winning while Labour, which has yet to name a candidate, is rated 13%.
The figures come as Tom Gordon, Liberal Democrat candidate for the seat, this week called for an election in light of three Conservative MPs resigning last weekend.

The predictions for Harrogate and Knaresborough, according to Electoral Calculus.
However, under an election scenario, the Lib Dems would pick up 28% of the vote – which is down on their 2019 figure of 35.6%.
Meanwhile, Mr Jones’ share would drop from 52.6% to 37%.
However, the increase in share of Labour from 9.6% to 24% suggests a split in the vote which paves the way for the Tories to retain the constituency.
Selby and Ainsty
The chances of the Conservatives holding onto Selby and Ainsty in the upcoming by-election look tight, according to Electoral Calculus.
Voters will head to the polls on July 20 after the resignation of Nigel Adams MP last weekend.
Labour announced 26-year-old Keir Mather will fight the by-election for the party.
Michael Naughton was picked to succeed Mr Adams for the Conservatives but withdrew on Friday and a replacement has yet to be named.
The Green Party has chosen Arnold Warneken, who represents Ouseburn on North Yorkshire Council, as its prospective parliamentary candidate.

The predictions for Selby and Ainsty, according to Electoral Calculus.
Electoral Calculus has the contest as a two-horse race, with Labour a 55% chance of winning and the Conservatives 45%.
Such a result would be dramatic given that Mr Adams, who was a former Foreign Office minister, had a majority of 20,137.
Under such a scenario, Labour would increase its vote share from 24.6% at the last election to 39.8%.
Meanwhile, the Tories would fall from 60.3% to 37.9%.
Skipton and Ripon
A similarly tight contest can be found in Skipton and Ripon.
Julian Smith, the former Northern Ireland secretary, currently holds the seat for the Conservatives with a majority of 23,694.
He’s predicted to have a 55% chance of retaining the seat for the party.

The predictions for Skipton and Ripon, according to Electoral Calculus.
Meanwhile, Labour has a 44% chance.
Despite a predicted drop in vote share from 59.5% to 37.5%, Mr Smith would be safe.
The figures, however, also forecast a hike in Labour’s share from 19.1% at the last election to 35.5%.
Read more:
- Tories and Greens name candidates as local by-election looms
- Selby and Ainsty MP resigns with immediate effect
- Labour names candidate for local by-election
MPs Watch: Sewage concerns and illegal migration
Every month the Stray Ferret tries to find out what our local MPs have been up to in their constituencies and in the House of Commons.
In April, North Yorkshire Council was launched after the abolition of North Yorkshire County Council, Harrogate Borough Council and the remaining districts. Meanwhile, concern was raised again over sewage being discharged into rivers.
The month also saw Prime Minister Rishi Sunak overcome a Conservative Party rebellion to pass the government’s Illegal Migration Bill.
We asked Ripon MP Julian Smith and Selby and Ainsty MP Nigel Adams if they would like to highlight anything in particular, but we did not receive a response.
Here is what we know after analysing their online presence.

Andrew Jones, Harrogate and Knaresborough MP.
In Harrogate and Knaresborough, here is what we found on Mr Jones:
- On April 1, Mr Jones spoke at the re-opening of the Games in Parks kiosk at Conyngham Hall, Knaresborough.
- Mr Jones also officially opened new independent store, Wave Aquariums, on Commercial Street, Harrogate.
- On April 11, Mr Jones welcomed £5,417,114 in new funding from the government to support local businesses and create jobs for rural communities in North Yorkshire.
- On April 12, Mr Jones attended a Copgrove village residents’ meeting to discuss a recent travellers encampment in the village.
- On April 14, Mr Jones addressed concern over sewage discharges with a video entitled “Fact Check Friday” on his Instagram.
- Mr Jones also attended a meeting with the regional director of Barratt Homes to discuss concerns at two developments within the constituency on April 14.
- Mr Jones hosted a roundtable with local cyclists to discuss active travel in Harrogate & Knaresborough on April 22.
- In the House of Commons on April 25, Mr Jones asked a question on encouraging over-50s back into work including encouraging employers to sign up to an age friendly employer pledge.
- Mr Jones voted in line with the government on the third reading of the controversial Illegal Migration Bill on April 26. The bill proposes a change in the law so who arrive in the UK by irregular means can be removed to a third country such as Rwanda.
When we contacted Mr Jones for comment, his office sent a list of his engagements for April.
Among those included attending a Kids Aloud performance at the Royal Hall, chairing all party parliamentary meetings, attending a session in Parliament with cancer charity, Sarcoma UK, and visiting local performing arts early years academy, Performatots, to learn more about their work and congratulate them on their Ofsted performance.
He also met with the Charity Retailers Association in the House of Commons and attended Anzac Day at Stonefall Cemetery to commemorate and remember the lives lost of Australia and New Zealand citizens during the world wars.
Mr Jones’ office pointed out that his engagements and activities could also be found on his Community News website and his Facebook and Instagram feeds.

Julian Smith, MP for Ripon and Skipton.
In Ripon, here is what we found on Mr Smith:
- On April 3, Mr Smith backed a residents’ campaign to buy back the Black Lion pub at Skelton-on-Ure.
- On April 25, he posted on his website that he met with independent businesses in Pateley Bridge.
- Mr Smith voted in line with the government on the third reading of the controversial Illegal Migration Bill on April 26. The bill proposes a change in the law so who arrive in the UK by irregular means can be removed to a third country such as Rwanda.
- Mr Smith made no spoken contributions in the House of Commons in April.
Read more:
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- Just 3.5% responded to Harrogate town council consultation
- Liberal Democrats back creation of Harrogate town council

Nigel Adams, MP for Selby and Ainsty which includes rural Harrogate.
In rural south Harrogate, he is what we found on Mr Adams:
- On April 11, Mr Adams tweeted his support for Yorkshire County Cricket Club president-elect Jane Powell.
- Mr Adams welcomed £5,417,114 in new funding from the government to support local businesses and create jobs for rural communities in North Yorkshire.
- Mr Adams voted in line with the government on the third reading of the controversial Illegal Migration Bill on April 26. The bill proposes a change in the law so who arrive in the UK by irregular means can be removed to a third country such as Rwanda.
- Mr Adams made no spoken contributions in the House of Commons in April.