The Liberal Democrats could take Harrogate and Knaresborough off the Conservatives at the next general election if people vote tactically, a poll suggests.

The New Statesman published an article today about the impact of tactical voting at the next election.

The findings are based on questions put to 2,500 voters a week ago by polling company Redfield & Wilton Strategies.

It forecasts tactical voting would lead to a Labour landslide and reduce the Conservatives to just eight seats in northern England — with Mr Jones among the victims.

Data by New Statesman and Redfield & Wilton Strategies

The article says Conservative Andrew Jones is currently set to win in Harrogate and Knaresborough for the fifth consecutive time, taking 35% of the vote compared with 32% for the Liberal Democrats and 25% for Labour.

But with tactical voting, the Liberal Democrats would win with 42% compared with 37% for Mr Jones. Labour’s vote would slump to 13%.

The figures are extrapolated from YouGov polling in May, which revealed 50% of Labour voters would consider voting for the Liberal Democrats — but just 13% would consider voting for the Conservatives. The article says:

“Tactical voting would see some voters switch to the Conservatives, without doubt, but the overwhelming majority who would change their vote would change it against them.”

Applied nationally, both for Con-Lib marginal seats and Con-Lab marginal seats, three to four dozen seats would change hands.

The Conservatives would win just 117 seats overall, the Liberal Democrats would win 41 and Labour would end up with 408 seats.

Read more:

• Sir Ed Davey: Lib Dems will target Harrogate and Knaresborough as key seat
• Andrew Jones MP launches ‘non-political’ fact-checking service

The article warns:

“These types of polling questions come with a health warning about hypothetical data, but they can aid us in modelling the next election.

“They let us look at seats where the Lib Dems are in second and gauge how many Labour voters might switch to help them over the line.”

The Liberal Democrats upgraded Harrogate and Knaresborough to a target seat this year, which prompted the selection process for its next prospective parliamentary candidate to be restarted.