Infection rates in Harrogate district ‘too high for tier one’

Local health and police leaders have acknowledged there will be disappointment in the Harrogate district at the news that it will stay in tier two.

Infection rates across North Yorkshire fell rapidly from mid-November but have plateaued lately at a rate that is still five times higher than it was in the summer.

After announcing the tier decisions this morning, the government released a written explanation on how it reached its verdict for North Yorkshire, which describes the outlook in the county as ‘improving’.

Besides the county’s overall infection rate, other key factors in determining the tier level include infection rates in people aged over 60, which are described as ‘stable or decreasing’.

Another factor is hospital coronavirus admissions, which are decreasing steadily. The government explanation said:

“The epidemiology indicators are too high for allocation to tier one but the trajectory does currently not warrant inclusion in tier three.”

The explanation highlights Scarborough as the most concerning area of North Yorkshire because infection rates are above 150 people per 100,000.

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Richard Flinton, chair of the North Yorkshire Local Resilience Forum, which is a partnership of organisations tackling emergencies in the county, said:

“We know there will be some disappointment in areas where rates are lower, that we remain in tier two as a whole county.

“But we can see that rates of reduction have flattened out and in some areas have risen again and our priority has to be about keeping our people safe.

“If we have to stay in tier two to achieve it then we must work to the government’s tiering plan.”

Christmas bubbles

Amanda Bloor, the accountable officer for North Yorkshire Clinical Commissioning Group, which buys health services for the county, added:

“Colleagues across the NHS continue to do a phenomenal job to provide health services for the people of North Yorkshire and York.

“Even though there will be a brief and specific relaxation of government guidance over the holiday period we are urging people to make sensible choices.

“Your choices now will help protect NHS services for those who need them most this winter.”

Chief inspector Charlotte Bloxham, silver lead for North Yorkshire Police’s covid response asked people to “carefully consider their own situation” and “make an informed decision based on their own personal circumstances” regarding Christmas arrangements. She added:

“If you have vulnerable people in your family, please consider carefully whether forming a Christmas bubble with them is the right thing to do.

“There will be no exemption period in place for New Year’s Eve celebrations, so it may be an idea to plan now for a quiet end to 2020.”

Harrogate district remains in tier two

The Harrogate district will remain in tier two after the first government review of the national tier rules.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock made the announcement in the House of Commons this morning.

But there was disappointment for West Yorkshire, including Leeds, which was hoping to move down from tier three to tier two.

This could have implications for local pubs and restaurants, as well as policing, which have had to deal with people flouting the rules and travelling to North Yorkshire for a night out.

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Tier rules are based on factors such as infection rates, particularly in the over 60s, and pressure on hospitals.

Case rates in the Harrogate district remain more than double those in tier one areas.

The Harrogate district currently has a rate of 84 infections per 100,000 people compared to 25.9 per 100,000 in Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly, which is in tier one.

What are the rules in tier two?

Tier two:

What about Christmas?

Coronavirus restrictions will be eased in England between December 23 and December 27.

Three households will be able to form a temporary bubble. It must be fixed but there will be no limit on numbers joining bubble.

Those who are self-isolating should not join one of these so-called Christmas bubbles.

If someone is in an at-risk group the government has said they must use their own judgement and consider the risks of mixing over Christmas.

Little Ale House to reopen by serving substantial meals

A Harrogate pub is set to reopen after finding a way to serve substantial meals with drinks.

The Little Ale House closed during the second national lockdown in November and did not reopen this month because tier two rules stated only pubs serving substantial meals could do so.

This meant wet-led pubs, which do not have kitchens to serve meals, stayed closed.

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But with little prospect of North Yorkshire moving to tier one anytime soon, the Little Ale House has decided to take action allowing it to reopen in the run-up to Christmas.

The independent micropub will offer a pie and peas warmer for visitors. It will serve pork pies and vegetarians pies.

Richard Park, co-owner at the Little Ale House, told the Stray Ferret:

“We are excited to open but this is not some golden goose. With restrictions on household mixing and drinks, sales will be reduced significantly.

“It will not be the same as before. But we cannot wait to move into tier one before we open, we have to keep our heads above water.”

 

Harrogate district health bosses expect ‘long journey’ to tier one

Health bosses in the Harrogate district said today they expect it to be a “long journey” from tier two to tier one.

The government is due to review the tiers every two weeks, which means the first opportunity to change will be on December 16.

But with infection rates in North Yorkshire nearly double those in tier one areas, any hopes of change before Christmas appear slim.

Richard Webb, director of adult social care at the county council, said at a coronavirus media briefing today:

“We need to work really hard to stay at tier two and hopefully reduce in due course to tier one.

“I think the advice that we are getting is that it might be quite a long journey to get out of tier two and into tier one.

“I know there will be some parts of the county that are very anxious to see that change. So we are going to have to continue to work hard to drive infection rates down.”

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Infection rates have shrunk considerably since the second half of November.

The Harrogate district’s seven-day average rate of infection is now 90 people per 100,000. This is lower than both North Yorkshire and England, whose rates are 104 and 152 respectively.

The R number for the district, which refers to how rapidly the virus is spreading in the community, has fallen again this week from 0.6 to 0.5. This means every 10 people with covid will infect five.

Public Health England reported another 25 cases today.

Killinghall and Hampsthwaite is by some distance the district’s covid hotspot. It has recorded 27 infections in the last seven days.

The next highest sub-districts are Harrogate West and Pannal and Ouseburn, Hammerton and Tockwith, both of which have had 14.

Killinghall and Hampsthwaite actually has the fourth highest number of infections of all the sub-districts in North Yorkshire.

 

 

Tier two gives Harrogate district hotels hope for winter

Hotels in the Harrogate district breathed a collective sigh of relief yesterday as the area was told it was moving into tier two.

Tier two restrictions, while closing wet-led pubs, paves the way for hotels to reopen at the end of the lockdown next week.

It may not be the same sort of takings that hotels would normally hope for over the festive period but it is a positive sign for the sector.

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The Majestic Hotel on Ripon Road will now be able to bring its team back from furlough and it putting reopening plans in place.

Andy Barnsdale, the general manager at the Majestic Hotel, said:

“We are now planning the process of reopening on Wednesday and bringing the team back, which is good news.

“We are looking closely at the guidelines and tailoring our food options for our indoor careering as well as for the outdoor Majestic Winter Teepee.”

Anthony Blundell, the assistant general manager at West Park Hotel, said:

“We will of course have all the safety measures in place but I think we might be in for a busy December when we re open next week with lots of bookings already and more coming in.

“I think the substantial meals rule will have an impact, we will just need to convert those people who are coming for a drink into having a meal.”

Council hopes that North Yorkshire will move into tier one

The Harrogate district could move out of tier two into tier one if coronavirus infection rates continue to fall.

Local public health officials struck an optimistic tone in light of today’s announcement but warned against complacency.

They said in an emergency press briefing that it was possible for North Yorkshire to change tiers when they are up for review in two weeks.

Richard Flinton, chair of the the North Yorkshire Local Resilience Forum, said:

“We are pleased that we are not in tier three. But I think we can say that this is not the time for complacency.

“We have to get into tier one and we need to use this time to drive down the virus in the county, we cannot be content in tier two.

“The winter period is a significant and potentially dangerous time in terms of how the virus could move.”

Currently there are more than 340 coronavirus patients in the hospitals that serve North Yorkshire.

That is higher than the first coronavirus wave when the patient numbers peaked at 302.

While the requirements for tier one are not entirely clear, the local officials set out some areas to look out for.

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Dr Lincoln Sargeant, director of public health in North Yorkshire, said:

“There are some indicators that we have from before this lockdown that we can aim for.

“We need to get the case rate, the positive case rate, the rates in the over 60s and the patients in hospitals down.

“I believe it is possible for us to have a safe Christmas and at the same time for the virus not to rebound in January.”

As North Yorkshire is surrounded by tier three areas there are concerns that visitors will try to take advantage of the lower restrictions.

Mike Walker, North Yorkshire Police’s assistant chief constable and gold commander leading the force’s coronavirus response, said:

“It is not acceptable for someone to travel out of a tier three area without a suitable reason. We do have enforcement powers in place to stop people doing this.

“We are one of the forces that issued the highest amount of fixed penalty notices at the start of the lockdown.”

Tier one hopes for Harrogate district fade away

The Harrogate district’s hopes of remaining in tier one at the end of the national lockdown seem to be fading away.

Local public health officials, who manage the coronavirus response in North Yorkshire, have been speculating ahead of an announcement tomorrow.

In a weekly coronavirus press briefing this morning, those officials said coronavirus rates can give you a feel for what tiers different areas will be in.

The average case rates in North Yorkshire is 195 per 100,000. England’s average case rates are currently 207 per 100,000.

Areas like Scarborough and Selby are the only areas above the national average at 296 and 240 per 100,000 respectively.

The Harrogate district has seen a drop in case rates in recent weeks. It now has the second lowest rates in North Yorkshire at 157 just above Ryedale at 131.

What tier restrictions will we be under?

The national lockdown ends next week on Wednesday, December 2. When the lockdown ends we will return to restrictions based on three tiers.

North Yorkshire was in tier one before the national lockdown. The government will confirm tomorrow which tiers each area will be under.

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However, local public health officials also said today that they would favour a system where North Yorkshire is split into different districts.

Richard Webb, the corporate director of health and adult services at North Yorkshire County Council, said:

“We don’t have those details on tier restrictions yet. All we have at the moment are the speculation and the drafts we had before lockdown.

“If we look to the criteria that will potentially be in place we hope that most of the county would be in tier two. But we know that some areas could be in tier three.”

What are the three different tiers?

The government has strengthened the tiers. They still range from tier one at medium through tier two at high and tier three at very high.

Tier one:
Tier two:
Tier three:

What about Christmas?

Coronavirus restrictions will be eased across the UK between December 23 and December 27 to allow for a Christmas closer to normal.

It will mean that three households will be able to form a temporary bubble. It must be fixed but there will be no limit on numbers joining bubble.

Those who are self-isolating should not join one of these so-called Christmas bubbles.

If someone is in an at-risk group the government has said they must their their own judgement and consider the risks of mixing over Christmas.

Tier one ‘did not work’, says North Yorkshire public health boss

North Yorkshire’s top public health boss has said tier one lockdown restrictions “did not work” and had “no teeth”.

Dr Lincoln Sargeant, director of public health at the county council, said the measures did not give people “a sense of seriousness about the situation”.

The England lockdown is due to end on December 2 and county council leaders said they expect to hear from ministers on what restrictions will be introduced at the end of next week.

North Yorkshire was under tier one restrictions, which meant people followed national guidance with no further restrictions.

But Dr Sargeant told a press briefing of the North Yorkshire Local Resilience Forum, a partnership of emergency agencies, that those in tier two restrictions tackled coronavirus better.

He said:

“There are some things we know for certain. Tier one did not really work, it did not give the public a sense of the seriousness of the situation.

“It just did not have the teeth. We were saying that for some time, we were saying that the issues in North Yorkshire were around household spread and mixing.

“It was not until tier two that you really had measures that would address that particular issue.”

He added that there needed to be “consistency and consensus” from political leaders over what the restrictions will be after lockdown in order for the public to take measures seriously.

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Meanwhile, Dr Sargeant said data appeared to show infections were “plateauing”, but stopped short of saying lockdown measures had worked.

He said:

“We are hopefully beginning to see, particularly in the data around hospitalisations, perhaps the beginning of a plateauing.

“I am very hesitant to say that this is definitely showing a sustained effect of lockdown. We expect to see the effect of lockdown beginning to show this week into next.

“But there is some suggestion that we might be levelling off and we need to keep watching that and hope that it is sustained.”

The briefing also revealed the number of covid patients at Harrogate District Hospital has remained flat. Currently, 27 people are being treated compared with 28 last week.

Harrogate’s testing site on Dragon Road is averaging 180 tests per day, well below its capacity of 320.

Yesterday, Public Health England figures showed a further 48 positive tests in the district, taking the total cases since March up to 3,204.

Following a change by Public Health England into how it records cases, the total number of cases in the district has fallen by 201.

Positive tests are now recorded by where the test is carried out, instead of where the person is registered with the NHS.

North Yorkshire could enter tier two this week

North Yorkshire could move into tier two coronavirus restrictions by the end of the week, according to the county council’s director of health and adult services.

Richard Webb said this morning the situation in the county was “hanging by a thread” due to rising infection rates.

The Selby and Harrogate districts are particular problem areas, with seven-day infection rates of 230 cases and 203 cases per 100,000 people respectively.

Average infection rates in the county remain below the England average of 220 cases per 100,000.

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But they are rising, which prompted Mr Webb to issue the warning at today’s weekly press briefing of the North Yorkshire Local Resilience Forum, which is a partnership of agencies that tackles emergencies. He said:

“The situation in North Yorkshire is now hanging by a thread. We are currently in tier one but that is really on a knife edge.

“We may even be in a situation at the end of this week where we move into tier two restrictions. But we are hoping that we can prevent that.

“We want to stay in tier one. It is better for livelihoods and for economic wellbeing. Today we are asking people to act now to save lives more than ever.”

Mr Webb said it would be up to the government to decide North Yorkshire’s fate.

People in tier two areas are prohibited from socialising with anybody outside their household or support bubble in any indoor setting.

People in pubs and restaurants can only consume food and drink while seated. Takeaway food can only be bought after 10pm if ordered online or by phone.

The press briefing also revealed that Harrogate District Hospital has 12 coronavirus patients – three of whom are in intensive care.