Candidates speak on hot issues at muggy Harrogate hustingsEXCLUSIVE: Harrogate Lib Dem candidate reported to Gambling Commission over allegations of election bettingEditor’s Election Diary: Tories in Pateley tearoom and Lib Dem leader in HarrogateLib Dem not ‘taking anything for granted’ in Harrogate and Knaresborough electionAndrew Jones out — but success for other local Tories, predicts MRP pollYouGov poll projects big win for Lib Dems in Harrogate and KnaresboroughLib Dems open campaign headquarters in HarrogateBy-election suggests tactical voting may topple Tories in Harrogate and Knaresborough

It may only have been a council by-election but this week’s Stray, Woodlands and Hookstone vote in Harrogate provided some fascinating insights into the local political landscape at a crucial time.

Andrew Timothy won the seat vacated by the resignation of fellow Liberal Democrat Pat Marsh.

His 44% share of the vote was down on the 52% achieved by Ms Marsh in 2022 after a bruising campaign in which the Lib Dems were reported to the police for wrongly stating the Green Party was not fielding a candidate.

But the 326-vote margin of victory over Conservative runner-up John Ennis was comfortable enough and brought relief to the Lib Dems, who were in danger of losing control of the council’s Harrogate and Knaresborough area constituency committee in a difficult by-election triggered by Ms Marsh’s anti-semitic comments.

Cllr Timothy left the count at Woodlands Methodist Church without giving interviews but Tom Gordon, the Lib Dem parliamentary candidate for Harrogate and Knaresborough, said in a statement afterwards the result “proves elections here in Harrogate and Knaresborough are a two-horse race between the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives”.

He added:

“We will take the new members, new deliverers, new activists, new councillor and momentum forward into the general election to win back the parliamentary seat from the Conservatives.”

‘Labour supporters voted tactically’

Labour candidate Geoff Foxall did little to challenge Mr Gordon’s view that Harrogate and Knaresborough was shaping up to be a straight fight between the Tories and Labour — and hinted tactical voting was the way to go.

Despite his party riding high in the national polls, Mr Foxhall finished last with just 116 votes yet he appeared far from downbeat.

He said:

“The Liberal Democrats should be thankful for the many Labour voters who have voted tactically. I hope Lib Dem voters reciprocate in the mayoral election.”

Mr Foxall said “voters in Harrogate are sophisticated” and frequently voted tactically. He highlighted how Labour did “particularly badly” in Harrogate and Knaresborough in 1997 when Barbara Boyce polled just 9% despite Tony Blair securing a national landslide, paving the way for Phil Willis to win locally for the Lib Dems.

Mr Foxall said Labour was “used to getting squeezed” locally and even suggested it would be open to a coalition with the Lib Dems and Greens at county level, where he said the parties were “akin on most issues”, and together could end the Conservatives’ dominance.

Asked what voting advice he would give Labour supporters in Harrogate and Knaresborough at the next general election, he said:

“Vote according to your conscience.”

For the Conservatives, so long the dominant force in North Yorkshire, it was a disappointing night.

During the campaign Andrew Jones, the Conservative MP for Harrogate and Knaresborough, wrote to Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey urging him to take action against local party members following the police complaint.

The ill feeling was apparent on the night when the Lib Dems complained to election officials about the number of Tories witnessing the count.

Mr Ennis and local activists campaigned hard in Stray, Woodlands and Hookstone but he still finished a distant second with 31%. The party polled 35% in 2022.

Speaking straight after the result, Mr Ennis said he had “campaigned in good faith on local issues, offering a positive message”.

He acknowledged “the national situation hasn’t helped” but added it was “difficult to extrapolate” conclusions from a by-election and he remained “confident we can hold the parliamentary seat”.

He also said the situation in next month’s mayoral election was “looking hopeful”.

Some Green Party members had hoped to claim second place but Gilly Charters still finished well ahead of Reform UK and Labour in third.

Ms Charters was upbeat afterwards, saying “a Green vote was a hopeful vote”, adding:

“The Greens will be back — and we hope we won’t have to call the police in next time.”

As for Reform UK, its 6% was below its national polling but it still finished above Labour. John Swales, its candidate, said:

“From a standing start and around four weeks to prepare we are building our presence in Harrogate and further progress will come in time.

“It was a good experience for us and we learnt a lot, performing with integrity and honour during the campaign and we would like to thank all the voters who supported us this time and we look forward to future campaigns with confidence.”

Stray, Woodlands and Hookstone by-election result

The turnout was 41%.

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Poll predicts Tory general election wipeout in Harrogate district

An opinion poll has indicated the Conservatives are in course to lose all three seats that include the former Harrogate district at the next general election.

The MRP poll of 15,029 adults by Survation, commissioned for the Sunday Times, showed that if an election were held now the number of Tory MPs would be reduced from 348 to 98. Labour would win 468 seats and have a huge overall majority of 142.

The seat projection forecasts that the Conservative casualties would include Andrew Jones, who has represented Harrogate and Knaresborough since 2010, and Julian Smith, who has been the Skipton and Ripon MP since the same year.

It also predicts Labour will win the newly created Wetherby and Easingwold constituency, which includes towns and villages such as Boroughbridge, Ouseburn, Marston Moor, Spofforth and Huby.

The poll, which was conducted between March 8 and 22, predicts Mr Jones’ vote will fall from 53% at the 2019 election to 31%, with the Liberal Democrats’ winning with 36% and Labour third with 24%. Reform would be a distant fourth on 7% and the Greens would get just 2%.

Tom Gordon

Tom Gordon

Tom Gordon, the Lib Dem parliamentary candidate for Harrogate and Knaresborough, said:

“This is now the latest in a series of polls and seat projections that clearly show the Liberal Democrats are in clear contention to win back Harrogate and Knaresborough from the Conservatives.

“Even Electoral Calculus, which was one of the few remaining sources predicting a Conservative hold, is now suggesting local residents will be turning their backs on the incumbent Conservative MP.”

Electoral Calculus says the Lib Dems have a 63% chance of taking Harrogate and Knaresborough. It puts the Conservatives’ chances of retaining the seat at 27% and Labour’s odds of winning at 9%.

Ripon result on a knife edge? 

According to Survation, Labour would win an extremely close contest in Skipton and Ripon, with 36.66% compared with the Tories’ 36.08%. The Liberal Democrats would finish third, with 11%, just ahead of Reform on 10%.

Labour has yet to select a candidate to stand against Mr Smith in this constituency.

Survation also predicts a close call in Wetherby and Easingwold. It says Labour has a 39% chance of winning compared with 38% for the Conservatives and 10% for the Lib Dems. Reform is given a 7% chance.

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Editor’s Pick of the Week: Bettys Easter egg, sewage and new offices

Easter is a time to ponder the big questions in life, such as: what happens to the giant egg in the window of Bettys in Harrogate?

Reporter Lauren Ryan has been tracking down the answer. Look for her article on Sunday.

The Stray Ferret is now a stone’s throw from Bettys — we moved into our new office on Cambridge Crescent on Monday. I may have a claim for the best view from office in Harrogate. It’ll look even better if the sun ever comes out.

Talking of throwing things, my Wednesday morning routine was abruptly cut short this week when I heard Harrogate’s Parliament Street was closed die to a police incident.

I hotfooted it to the scene in time to find a shocking number of broken windows in the buildings above shops. The ages of the boys arrested was even more hard to believe.

Some of the smashed windows on Parliament Street.

Political shenanigans are hotting up in a year of elections of ever-increasing magnitude: there’s the Stray, Woodlands and Hookstone council by-election in April, the North Yorkshire mayor election in May and a general election further down the track.

The Lib Dems were reported to the police this week when their by-election candidate sent out a leaflet falsely claiming the Green Party wasn’t standing. Andrew Jones, the Conservative MP for Harrogate and Knaresborough, wrote to Lib Dem leader Ed Davey claiming the local Lib Dems had “totally gone rogue”, which drew a sharp retort that he was “out of touch”.

The political wrangling continued when the Environment Agency released its latest data about sewage discharges, which made unpleasant reading for those of us living close to the Nidd and Ure, i.e. everyone in the former Harrogate district.

Mr Jones and his Lib Dem rival Tom Gordon had vastly different takes on the results.

Politics is a dirty business — and with elections looming, it’s only likely get murkier.

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