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12
May 2024
Could Labour target Harrogate and Knaresborough at the next election?
Shortly after his victory speech, newly elected Labour Mayor of York and North Yorkshire David Skaith acknowledged how unusual it was for the party to win in a traditional Conservative heartland.
“North Yorkshire is not an area we normally do well in,” he told reporters huddled around him in Harrogate Convention Centre last week.
Labour leader Keir Starmer hailed it a "historic victory" for his party.
It was certainly a notable success given the traditionally Conservative voting nature of North Yorkshire, in particular in Harrogate and Knaresborough.
But does this mean Labour will begin to target the seat at the next general election?
Could Labour target Harrogate?
When the Stray Ferret spoke to Mr Skaith prior to his election win, we asked him about the fact that Labour does not perform well in Harrogate.
Mr Skaith, who was born in Harrogate, acknowledged that the town was traditionally Liberal Democrat and Conservative, but said it was a target area for his mayoral campaign.
While the mayoral campaign may have proved successful for Labour, the party's prospect of winning a seat in the House of Commons in the area remains difficult.
In general elections, the party’s highest vote share in Harrogate and Knaresborough came in 2017 when it managed 20% — but still finished third, well behind the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives.
Every election since and before then has seen Labour record 10% or below for vote share as the party barely managed to reach 10,000 votes in all but one poll since 1997.
But the victory in the mayoral election appears to have galvanised the party and raises questions over whether it will commit more campaign resources to Harrogate and Knaresborough.
Read more:
- Glum Tories in Harrogate see blue wall crumble in Rishi Sunak’s backyard
- Tense day ends in clear victory for Labour’s Harrogate-born mayor
Andrew Williamson, treasurer of Harrogate and Knaresborough Labour Party, said the victory for Mr Skaith proved people locally had switched from Conservative to Labour.
Mr Williamson added that the win also showed there were no "no go" areas for the party.
He said:
'A two horse race'
However, if you ask other political parties in contention for the constituency - Labour do not factor into the equation.
The Stray Ferret reported in December 2023 that the national Labour Party designated Harrogate and Knaresborough a “non-battleground” seat.
The party published a list online of 211 seats which it considers to be non-target constituencies.
Andrew Jones and Tom Gordon.
Tom Gordon, the Liberal Democrat candidate for the constituency, claimed the move proved that the contest is a “two-horse race”.
Mr Gordon's latest newsletter, delivered after the mayoral election., reinforced the claim that “no other result is possible here” besides a Tory or Lib Dem win.
Labour has also yet to confirm a candidate for Harrogate and Knaresborough despite the fact that a general election must take place before January 2025. By contrast, the Lib Dems confirmed Mr Gordon as its candidate in February 2023.
The opinion polls in recent months have swayed in the Lib Dems favour and painted a glum picture for the Tories.
However, Andrew Jones, the current Conservative MP, has his sights set on five election wins in a row.
Mr Jones has a 9,675 majority to defend and told the Stray Ferret in May last year that he had “no hesitation” in putting his name forward again.
Perversely, a resurgent Labour Party may help Mr Jones if it takes votes off the Lib Dems. But how hard Starmer's party will contest Harrogate and Knaresborough remains unclear.
Whatever it chooses, the election in Harrogate and Knaresborough is shaping up to be the closest for years.
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