24
Apr
Harrogate Town's survival chances: What do the stats say?
Harrogate Town have just two league games left to save their English Football League status — but the stats and odds do not appear to be in their favour.
Town head into Saturday’s clash away at Walsall knowing a win could lift them out of the League Two relegation zone. But defeat could see them relegated.
The Sulphurites currently sit bottom of the league one-point from safety with Barrow, Newport County and Crawley Town above them.
Despite a crucial injury time win against Colchester last Saturday, Opta Sports, which has provided statistical data and predictions throughout the season, does not predict that Town will have enough to clinch survival.
According to its predicted table, Opta gives Harrogate a 76% chance of relegation at the time of writing.
Town are joined in the bottom two with Barrow, who are given a 61% chance of relegation.
The stats say Newport and Crawley have a higher chance of escaping the drop with 47% and 14% chance respectively.
Meanwhile, the bookies do not make for great reading for Town fans either.
According to Oddschecker, some bookmakers are offering 1/4 on Harrogate to be relegated.
Simon Weaver speaking ahead of Harrogate's match against Walsall.
However, despite the odds being against them, Simon Weaver, Town manager, said the players were “upbeat” and “defiant” ahead of the clash with Walsall.
He said the win over Colchester kept the club “alive” at a time when it appeared they were all but down.
Weaver said:
The win kept us in the fight and kept us alive at a time when most people out there thought we had gone and got relegated.
We are still in the fight and that is all it is. We were absolutely buzzing all of us to get back in that changing room knowing that we were still in this. But we are bottom of the league. We know where we are and we are not getting ahead of ourselves thinking ‘well that’s the achievement’ because you can suffer an after the Lord Mayor's show.
We want a situation far removed from that and we have got to go and reproduce that level of intensity again.
Harrogate Town kick off against Walsall at 3pm on Saturday (April 25).
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