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26

May 2024

Last Updated: 28/05/2024
Politics
Politics

Editor's Election Diary: Is 5,000 days of local Tory control ending?

by John Plummer

| 26 May, 2024
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sf113-editors-election-diary-v1-1

It's been 5,134 days since Andrew Jones and Julian Smith were elected Conservative MPs for Harrogate and Knaresborough and Skipton and Ripon respectively in 2010.

Rishi Sunak's decision to call a general election on July 4 means they could have just 40 days left in Westminster.

The national polls don't look good for the Tories but unlike some of their colleagues, who have chosen to stand down, Messrs Jones and Smith are preparing to fight.

Mr Jones will be up against two men in their 20s from the main opposition parties: Liberal Democrat Tom Gordon and Labour's Conrad Whitcroft.

The latter, whose candidature was announced just hours before Mr Sunak called the election, informed me he was too young to vote in the Brexit referendum when we met on Friday. Look out for the interview on Bank Holiday Monday.

While Mr Gordon has been attacking the Tories' record, Mr Jones has been questioning his youthful opponents' local credentials.

Having two twenty-somethings in the race is a step forward for better representation of young people in politics but so far just one of the five candidates declared — Shan Oakes of the Green Party — is female.

Reform UK has actually had two parliamentary candidates so far. It emerged this week that original selection Richard Brown had been replaced by John Swales after a dispute that resulted in Mr Brown saying of Mr Swales that he “didn’t want to see the bugger again”.

The website Electoral Calculus gives Mr Gordon a 62% chance of winning but UK Polling Report has Mr Jones slight favourite, giving him a 36.72% likelihood of success against Mr Gordon's 35.4%. These regularly updated forecasts will be compulsive but perhaps not wholly reliable viewing in the weeks ahead given the disparities.

Electoral Calculus says Labour has a 59% chance of winning in Skipton and Ripon, but at the time of writing Keir Starmer's team hadn't even named a candidate. With an autumn election expected, the announcement of a July election caught many people on the hop — expect a busy week ahead of more candidates being announced. Will the Official Monster Raving Loony Party detect enough local lunacy to throw its hat in the ring?

It will be particularly interesting to see the outcome in the new Wetherby and Easingwold constituency, which includes Boroughbridge and numerous villages in the former Harrogate district.

The Stray Ferret will be in Boroughbridge, Pateley Bridge, Knaresborough, Ripon, and Harrogate this week speaking to readers, local groups and businesses to find out what matters to you.

We also have several articles this weekend setting the scene for the campaign ahead. Stay tuned, as Election '24 hots up.




Read more:



  • Harrogate district set to become election battleground

  • Could Labour target Harrogate and Knaresborough at the next election?

  • Who will be standing in the Harrogate district at the general election?