May we live in interesting times. That old Chinese curse — or blessing — feels uncomfortably relevant, given recent geopolitical events many of us have been watching through our fingers.

The Trump administration’s bizarre sabre-rattling over Greenland has the potential to fracture NATO as we know it. And when NATO wobbles, our patch — improbably — may start to wobble with it.

I wasn’t born here. I moved to Harrogate nearly two decades ago. What still surprises me is that we don’t feel like a garrison town — despite having RAF Menwith Hill on our doorstep and the Army Foundation College in Harrogate.

With NATO under strain, I woke up one night recently following this nightmare: Army Foundation College teenagers politely frogmarching American personnel out of Menwith Hill. No drama, no hostility. Just awkwardness.

Absurd? Of course. But if the last few years have taught us anything, it’s this: the unthinkable can become tomorrow’s agenda.

And if Britain ever found itself nudged towards choosing ‘Europe’ over ‘America’ on defence, the ramifications would be felt here.

So, assuming nobody fires a shot, let’s park the global chessboard. What would a NATO-wobble mean for Harrogate?

First: Menwith Hill becomes a bigger political football

As international alliances fray, the question ‘on what terms do US personnel operate here?’ will get louder. Protests are already part of the Menwith Hill scenery. The annual Independence from America event on 4 July has been running for years and would likely grow.

However you feel about the base, the Americans who live and work around it are our neighbours and friends: parents at school gates, customers in local shops, faces you recognise. If the US footprint shrank, people wouldn’t just be leaving a facility. They’d be leaving homes. And I wouldn’t want to see that.

Second: Money

Let’s be candid: our local American friends aren’t often browsing the yellow-sticker shelf of the new Tesco. Their spending power props up rentals, house prices and the general local economy. If the US footprint reduced, we would all feel it economically.

Third: Army college becomes more visible

As Europe takes defence more seriously — more kit, more training, more recruits — AFC Harrogate becomes more important. That could mean more uniform in town, more visiting families, more local contracts. And it’s worth saying: I’ve only ever seen those young soldiers behave impeccably.

It might also mean something else: more parents nudging their kids towards cadets, with more local kids marching through town on remembrance weekends. Am I the only one who finds the spectacle of children marching through our town to be quite disquieting?

Fourth: Council tax meets geopolitics

You may have seen that Harrogate Town Council has just agreed to more than double its Band D precept to £25.78 from April. At one level, that’s small beer. On another, it’s a reminder that we’ve been arguing about the price of local administration (and more roadworks) while larger issues are edging towards our doorstep — issues that call for resilience planning, coordination, and strong local leadership. But will we have it?

Every time I visit Beningbrough Hall, I’m reminded that it was requisitioned in the war and used to billet aircrews, including the brave Royal Canadian Air Force. The transatlantic relationship didn’t begin with NATO, and it won’t — I hope — end with one Washington moment. But it can be damaged and we, here, may feel that damage sooner than we expect.

So interesting times. I moved here for the Harrogate way of keeping calm and carrying on, even if the rest of the world is on fire. I’d like us to keep it that way. Because if geopolitics is about to land on our doorstep, we’ll need the best of this town: level heads, strong leadership, and the good sense to stay neighbours first.

Andrew Gray is chief executive of Suffrago.org and a local TikToker. He writes in a personal capacity.