Strayside Sunday is our monthly political opinion column. It is written by Paul Baverstock, former Director of Communications for the Conservative Party. 

I spent my school years keenly aware of Cold War realpolitik, and of the unthinkable nuclear consequences, should cold turn hot. 1983, when I was 16, saw the release of nuclear war film The Day After, to be followed in 1984 by the release of the lower budget (British set and made) Threads, bleaker and more frightening in measures equal. My teenage years, and those of my peer group, passed on red alert, with any siren sound in the valley causing a flash of pulse quickening panic. Was this to be the beginning of the end?

I’m reminded of this of course by current events in Ukraine. At time of writing, we are 12 days into Russia’s invasion. Yet, brave Ukraine, led by President Volodymyr Zelensky, resists. Russia’s superior force impeded by courageous and dogged Ukrainian defence and, it seems, handicapped by over ambitious strategic planning, inept military leadership and sagging soldierly morale. We watch helplessly from the side-lines as Ukrainian citizens suffer what seems to be indiscriminate bombardment, but which must be bombardment by cruel design.

We wince, embarrassed by the sure knowledge that, hitherto, we in the UK have turned a blind eye to the dirty Russian money laundering through London and Surrey’s perpetually empty, always modernising mansions and penthouses. So now we applaud our government and those of our NATO and European allies as they move to punish Russia through the imposition of severe sanctions and financial restrictions or economic penalties. We applaud international businesses from Apple and Ikea, to TikTok and Zara, and our local big brands Harrogate Spring Water and Yorkshire Tea -all of whom have ceased operations in Russia.  And we applaud the delivery of our and our allies anti-tank and other weapons to assist Ukraine’s fighters in eking out another hour, perhaps another day of resistance.

What we cannot do for Ukraine, what we must not do, so the orthodoxy goes, is to do what we all know it would take to give them a real chance of victory; we cannot put NATO boots on the ground, nor can we institute a no-fly zone. Why? Because to do so would put us in direct conflict with Russia, a shooting war with a Russia led by an increasingly unstable dictator who has threatened, in none too subtle terms, to use his arsenal of nuclear weapons against us. And, after all, Ukraine isn’t a NATO member, so can’t benefit from Article 5 protections. We dare not risk Putin’s ire nor a nuclear conflagration so, ergo, we send humanitarian aid and military supplies, and we wait. We wait for the inevitable and tragic moment when Russia overruns Kyiv and its sister cities, kills or imprisons Ukraine’s democratically elected leadership, installs a puppet government, and claims the country for its own.  When that happens - although every ounce of my being wishes that it were “if” it happens - when that happens, Russia and NATO will face each other across the European borders of, among others, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia and Poland. And when we do President Putin will know that we in NATO have already failed his test of our nerve. He will hold the upper hand.

During my school days it was widely held that MAD (the doctrine of mutually assured destruction) kept the nuclear peace.  Rational actors bound inaction by the fact that war would mean the end of everything. I worry now that we will face a new asymmetrical nuclear threat, one in which the main protagonist is willing to play a game with the highest of all stakes, while we will not. If we get to that point, as well we might, we may yet regret saying no to a no-fly zone for Ukraine.

Meanwhile there is more than a hint of bathos in the story of retired and decorated Harrogate fireman Bruce Reid. Mr. Reid flew to Poland this week and made his way to the Ukrainian border, intent on volunteering his firefighting services. Told that he should instead find his way 30 miles across the border to the Yavoriv military base, where he would be equipped and taught to fight, Mr. Reid turned back, returning to his 10-year-old granddaughter and the rest of his worried-sick family. No matter, Mr. Reid’s status as a hero is already cemented in my view by his years of bravery in the Fire Service, and by his willingness to volunteer those special skills in the service of Ukraine.

Against this backdrop of heart-breaking world affairs, it seems somehow small to have a go at an obviously failed British politician.  But I’m so blood boilingly angry about the announcement of a Knighthood last week for Sir, yes Sir! Gavin Williamson that I can’t help myself. Mr. Williamson was a serial failure in government. But as an ex-whip he knows where Boris’ bodies are buried so needs to be kept quiet. He doesn’t deserve it and it thoroughly demeans the honours system.

If we are going to face another Cold War then we will all have to believe in our way of life and government to face down Russia.  To ask that level of commitment and sacrifice, to ask us to follow the example of Ukraine, requires our system of government to retain its moral authority. Giving a gong to this man does not help build confidence.

That’s my Strayside Sunday.

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