Although local elections are being held across the country tomorrow (May 7), North Yorkshire has to wait another year until it goes to the polls.

But who will lead the Conservative Party’s campaign to retain control of North Yorkshire Council on May 6, 2027?

By the end of today, the result of a leadership contest between Councillors Carl Les, 76, and Keane Duncan, 31, will be known.

It is no secret that the two men do not get on, and the contrast between them is stark.

Cllr Duncan became the youngest leader of Ryedale District Council at the age of 24 in 2019 and was the youngest member of Cllr Les’ cabinet after the 2022 election. 

But his star waned when he stood unsuccessfully as the Conservative candidate for Mayor of York and North Yorkshire in 2024 and a year later he resigned his cabinet highways brief as his relationship with Cllr Les soured.

A mistimed move?

Cllr Les entered politics in 1995, the year Cllr Duncan was born and has recorded consistent election successes. He became leader of North Yorkshire County Council in 2015, championed the single unitary authority model that was adopted in 2023 and has led North Yorkshire Council ever since.

Cllr Les has signalled he intends to continue after 2027 but his close ally, Cllr Gareth Dadd, said last week he will relinquish his deputy leader’s role at tonight’s party AGM and step down as a councillor next year.

Cllr Duncan has never hidden his leadership ambitions, but many expected his challenge to materialise after next year’s election.

One Conservative source told us they thought he had mistimed his move.

They said:

Cllr Mark Crane, who was well beaten in a 2022 leadership challenge, has signalled he intends to stand as deputy leader, as has Cllr Richard Foster.

The round of musical chairs this has prompted may have encouraged Cllr Duncan to throw his hat in the ring early.

He has declined to discuss what his pitch to the party will be, but a recent boundary review means councillors are jostling for party nominations for the new seats in 2027 as well as senior roles if they are elected.

Cllr Les has said he will “stand on my record of achievements and continuous election successes since 1995”.

The source said: 

"Keane is not as popular as he may think, but he may have promised cabinet jobs to those who are dithering.” 

But will he win?

“The talent pool at North Yorkshire is lacking, and I’m afraid a shake-up is needed, just not yet and Keane is seen by some as a joke,” the source added. But they added they were reluctant to predict the outcome.

'Stand on my record'

The 42 Conservative councillors will be balloted at the party’s AGM at County Hall in Northallerton tonight.

There is still the possibility of at least one other councillor standing for the leader's role.

The Stray Ferret asked all the Conservative councillors whose current divisions form part of the former Harrogate district who they intend to support. Several replied, but none revealed their hand.

Their votes tonight will be pivotal in the future of the local party, which has controlled North Yorkshire Council, and its predecessor, North Yorkshire County Council, for a quarter-of-a-century.

However, the Tories’ iron grip has slipped: they currently rely on the support of three Independents to prop up the administration, giving them 45 of 90 seats at County Hall, plus the chairman’s casting vote.

With the Conservatives polling less than 20% in national polls, there is considerable uncertainty over how the political landscape will look in North Yorkshire in a year’s time.

Will the Tories retain control, either alone or as part of a pact with another party such as Reform UK, or are they set for a spell in opposition?

Whoever is chosen as leader tonight will have 366 days to try to ensure North Yorkshire remains one of the bluest counties in Britain.