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18
Jun 2023
The Conservatives would retain Harrogate and Knaresborough while Labour could gain Selby and Ainsty if a general election were held tomorrow.
According to Electoral Calculus, a political forecasting company, Andrew Jones MP would win a fifth successive election in Harrogate.
Meanwhile, Labour would unseat the Tories in Selby and Ainsty, which includes areas of rural Harrogate, and Julian Smith, Skipton and Ripon MP, would retain his seat for the Conservatives but in a far closer contest.
Electoral Calculus uses past voting figures, polling trends and party support to predict the average outcome of seats in the House of Commons.
The chances of winning seats in Parliament has become particularly pertinent as a by-election looms in Selby and Ainsty next month and a general election is lined up for next year.
The Conservative campaign in Selby and Ainsty was thrown into disarray on Friday when its candidate, Michael Naughton, withdrew just days after being selected.
But with by-election fever mounting, we looked at the state of play locally according to Electoral Calculus.
The predictions for Harrogate and Knaresborough, according to Electoral Calculus.
However, under an election scenario, the Lib Dems would pick up 28% of the vote - which is down on their 2019 figure of 35.6%.
Meanwhile, Mr Jones' share would drop from 52.6% to 37%.
However, the increase in share of Labour from 9.6% to 24% suggests a split in the vote which paves the way for the Tories to retain the constituency.
The predictions for Selby and Ainsty, according to Electoral Calculus.
Electoral Calculus has the contest as a two-horse race, with Labour a 55% chance of winning and the Conservatives 45%.
Such a result would be dramatic given that Mr Adams, who was a former Foreign Office minister, had a majority of 20,137.
Under such a scenario, Labour would increase its vote share from 24.6% at the last election to 39.8%.
Meanwhile, the Tories would fall from 60.3% to 37.9%.
The predictions for Skipton and Ripon, according to Electoral Calculus.
Meanwhile, Labour has a 44% chance.
Despite a predicted drop in vote share from 59.5% to 37.5%, Mr Smith would be safe.
The figures, however, also forecast a hike in Labour's share from 19.1% at the last election to 35.5%.
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