Who is leading the race to win Wetherby and Easingwold?

As the election campaign heats up in the Harrogate district, people are keeping a close eye on the polls.

One constituency where the outcome will be of particular interest is in the newly created Wetherby and Easingwold.

Six candidates are vying for the seat, which will be contested for the first time on July 4.

The constituency takes in diverse areas in the Harrogate district, including Boroughbridge, Spofforth, Follifoot, Huby, Ouseburn, Marston Moor and Bishop Monkton. 

It also takes in parts of Leeds, including Harewood and Wetherby.

The vastness of the seat, which hooks around Harrogate and Knaresborough, has led to speculation over which party will win on polling day. 

So who is leading the charge?

The Conservative Party wasted little time in putting forward former Elmet and Rothwell MP, Sir Alec Shelbrooke, as its candidate.

Bradford schoolteacher Ben Pickles will contest the seat for Labour.

According to various polls, the seat is a toss-up between both major parties. However, different opinion polls are predicting different outcomes.

At the time of writing, the website Electoral Calculus estimated that the Tories have a 69% chance of winning the seat while Labour stood at 31%.

This is also reflected in YouGov’s polling from between May 24 and June 1, which shows that Mr Shelbrooke is likely to take the constituency.

A recent Survation poll of 42,269 people also puts the Tories on course to win with 38.9% share of the vote - a narrow margin over Labour, which is predicted to receive a 36.3% share.

Meanwhile, the poll also puts the Green Party on 16.6%, Lib Dems on 6.8% and Reform on 0.4%.

The Greens are targeting the seat and have selected experienced campaigner Arnold Warneken to boost their chances.

The results are in stark contrast to the polling company's previous survey, which had Labour in position to take the seat.

The MRP poll of 30,044 people carried out by Survation predicted that Labour would win the constituency with 35.8% share of the vote compared to the Conservatives 33.9% share.

The poll, which was carried out between May 22 and June 2, also put Reform UK on 11.4% share. Meanwhile, the Greens, Liberal Democrats and Yorkshire Party all come in at below 10%.

The contest is shaping up to be too close to call.

However, polling suggests the race to win Wetherby and Easingwold will be between the Conservatives and Labour.

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