An opinion poll has indicated the Conservatives are in course to lose all three seats that include the former Harrogate district at the next general election.

The MRP poll of 15,029 adults by Survation, commissioned for the Sunday Times, showed that if an election were held now the number of Tory MPs would be reduced from 348 to 98. Labour would win 468 seats and have a huge overall majority of 142.

The seat projection forecasts that the Conservative casualties would include Andrew Jones, who has represented Harrogate and Knaresborough since 2010, and Julian Smith, who has been the Skipton and Ripon MP since the same year.

It also predicts Labour will win the newly created Wetherby and Easingwold constituency, which includes towns and villages such as Boroughbridge, Ouseburn, Marston Moor, Spofforth and Huby.

The poll, which was conducted between March 8 and 22, predicts Mr Jones' vote will fall from 53% at the 2019 election to 31%, with the Liberal Democrats' winning with 36% and Labour third with 24%. Reform would be a distant fourth on 7% and the Greens would get just 2%.

Tom Gordon, the Lib Dem parliamentary candidate for Harrogate and Knaresborough, said:

Electoral Calculus says the Lib Dems have a 63% chance of taking Harrogate and Knaresborough. It puts the Conservatives' chances of retaining the seat at 27% and Labour's odds of winning at 9%.

Ripon result on a knife edge? 

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