A YouGov poll today (September 26) has indicated Reform UK is on course to win Skipton and Ripon from the Conservatives.

Tory Sir Julian Smith retained the seat with 35% of the vote at last year’s general election. Labour’s Malcolm Birks was his nearest rival, with 32%.

Reform were third with 16% but today’s YouGov poll has Reform on 29%, ahead of the Conservatives on 25% and Labour on 17%.

Reform has also surged in the two other constituencies that include parts of the Harrogate district.

But the poll suggests both current MPs would retain their seats if an election were held tomorrow.

In Harrogate and Knaresborough, the Liberal Democrats are on 42% — 20 points ahead of nearest challengers Reform on 24%.

The Tory vote has collapsed to just 19% — only two points ahead of Labour. Conservative Andrew Jones polled 30% last year when he lost the seat he had held for 14 years to Tom Gordon, who recorded 46%.

Wetherby and Easingwold, currently held by Conservative Sir Alec Shelbrooke, is the closest of the three local constituencies. 

The Conservatives are on 29% — just two points ahead of Reform. Labour are third on 18%.

This was the second YouGov MRP poll since the 2024 election and is based on a sample of 13,000 voters.

Nationally, it shows Reform would win 311 seats, just 15 short of a majority.

Labour would win 144 seats, the Liberal Democrats 78, the Conservatives 45, the SNP 37, the Greens 7, Plaid Cymru 6 and others 3.

YouGov forecasts

Skipton and Ripon

Reform 29

Conservatives 25 

Labour 17 

Lib Dems 14 

Greens 11

Harrogate and Knaresborough

Lib Dems 42 

Conservatives 19 

Labour 17

Reform 24

Greens 7

Wetherby and Easingwold

Conservatives 29

Reform 27

Labour 18

Greens 14

Lib Dems 10