The Conservatives would retain Harrogate and Knaresborough while Labour could gain Selby and Ainsty if a general election were held tomorrow.

According to Electoral Calculus, a political forecasting company, Andrew Jones MP would win a fifth successive election in Harrogate.

Meanwhile, Labour would unseat the Tories in Selby and Ainsty, which includes areas of rural Harrogate, and Julian Smith, Skipton and Ripon MP, would retain his seat for the Conservatives but in a far closer contest.

Electoral Calculus uses past voting figures, polling trends and party support to predict the average outcome of seats in the House of Commons.

The chances of winning seats in Parliament has become particularly pertinent as a by-election looms in Selby and Ainsty next month and a general election is lined up for next year.

The Conservative campaign in Selby and Ainsty was thrown into disarray on Friday when its candidate, Michael Naughton, withdrew just days after being selected.

But with by-election fever mounting, we looked at the state of play locally according to Electoral Calculus.

Harrogate and Knaresborough

According to the political forecaster, Andrew Jones has a 67% chance of winning in Harrogate and Knaresborough.

Mr Jones, who has already confirmed he will stand at the next election, currently has a majority of 9,675.

The website says the Liberal Democrats have a 20% chance of winning while Labour, which has yet to name a candidate, is rated 13%.

The figures come as Tom Gordon, Liberal Democrat candidate for the seat, this week called for an election in light of three Conservative MPs resigning last weekend.

The predictions for Harrogate and Knaresborough, according to Electoral Calculus.

However, under an election scenario, the Lib Dems would pick up 28% of the vote – which is down on their 2019 figure of 35.6%.

Meanwhile, Mr Jones’ share would drop from 52.6% to 37%.

However, the increase in share of Labour from 9.6% to 24% suggests a split in the vote which paves the way for the Tories to retain the constituency.

Selby and Ainsty

The chances of the Conservatives holding onto Selby and Ainsty in the upcoming by-election look tight, according to Electoral Calculus.

Voters will head to the polls on July 20 after the resignation of Nigel Adams MP last weekend.

Labour announced 26-year-old Keir Mather will fight the by-election for the party.

Michael Naughton was picked to succeed Mr Adams for the Conservatives but withdrew on Friday and a replacement has yet to be named.

The Green Party has chosen Arnold Warneken, who represents Ouseburn on North Yorkshire Council, as its prospective parliamentary candidate.

The predictions for Selby and Ainsty, according to Electoral Calculus.

Electoral Calculus has the contest as a two-horse race, with Labour a 55% chance of winning and the Conservatives 45%.

Such a result would be dramatic given that Mr Adams, who was a former Foreign Office minister, had a majority of 20,137.

Under such a scenario, Labour would increase its vote share from 24.6% at the last election to 39.8%.

Meanwhile, the Tories would fall from 60.3% to 37.9%.

Skipton and Ripon

A similarly tight contest can be found in Skipton and Ripon.

Julian Smith, the former Northern Ireland secretary, currently holds the seat for the Conservatives with a majority of 23,694.

He’s predicted to have a 55% chance of retaining the seat for the party.

The predictions for Skipton and Ripon, according to Electoral Calculus.

Meanwhile, Labour has a 44% chance.

Despite a predicted drop in vote share from 59.5% to 37.5%, Mr Smith would be safe.

The figures, however, also forecast a hike in Labour’s share from 19.1% at the last election to 35.5%.

Read more:

• Tories and Greens name candidates as local by-election looms
• Selby and Ainsty MP resigns with immediate effect
• Labour names candidate for local by-election

Today marks 4,762 days since Andrew Jones was elected Conservative MP for Harrogate and Knaresborough.

Mr Jones wrestled the seat off the Liberal Democrats with a slim 1,039 majority in May 2010.

Since then has successfully defended it three times, achieving more than 50% of the vote on each occasion and securing a 9,675 majority in 2019.

But this month’s local elections, in which the Conservatives lost more than 1,000 councillors, and Labour’s lead in the opinion polls suggest the next election could be closer.

In his first interview with the Stray Ferret, Mr Jones gives his thoughts on the looming general election, which is likely to happen next year, as well as key local issues including the Harrogate Station Gateway and devolution.

Mr Jones, who has been a transport and Treasury minister, says he had “no hesitation whatsoever” in putting forward his name for re-selection in the Harrogate and Knaresborough constituency. He says:

“The opportunity to speak up for my home area at the highest possible level is absolutely fantastic.”

The constituency, and the previous Harrogate constituency that included Knaresborough, has been held by Conservatives continuously since 1950 except when the Liberal Democrat Phil Willis was MP from 1997 to 2010.

But Mr Jones insists he’s never regarded it as “anything other than a marginal”, adding no seat has been safe for a decade. He says:

“The election is about who offers the best future  – will it be Rishi or Keir Starmer. The answer is Rishi. Who will be the best local champion? Me.”

Asked how many marks out of 10 he’d give so far for Rishi Sunak’s performance as Prime Minister, he says ’11’.

His Lib Dem opponent

Mr Jones, who turns 60 in November, will be up against Liberal Democrat Tom Gordon, who at 29 is half his age.

Both men were born in West Yorkshire but while Mr Jones has lived in Harrogate for almost 25 years, Mr Gordon has just moved in.

Mr Gordon portrays himself as a fresh and energetic alternative but Mr Jones says he has “plenty of fuel in the tank” and points out he had a career in business before becoming a Harrogate borough councillor in 2003, representing High Harrogate for two terms before becoming an MP.

By contrast, Mr Gordon, who has twice stood as a prospective parliamentary candidate as well as a councillor in Wakefield and Newcastle has “done an enormous amount of politics” for a 29-year-old, says Mr Jones, who adds:

“I had 25 years in business. I had done two terms as a local councillor in this area before being elected. I haven’t stood anywhere else.

“I have not sought to represent anything other than the seat I live in. I don’t think this is just a notch on someone’s political bedpost and I hope this constituency isn’t being used in this way.”

Supporting the Station Gateway

Few issues have divided Harrogate more in Mr Jones’ time as an MP than the £11.2 million Station Gateway, which looks set to go ahead after all five Conservative councillors and five of eight Liberal Democrat councillors on North Yorkshire Council’s area constituency committee supported it.

Mr Jones supports the scheme but has reservations, which include the positioning of taxi ranks, unloading outside shops and disabled parking spaces.

He says town centres are changing, with less retail and more hospitality and homes.

“They’ve got to be more attractive places to go to where the quality of life is very high. That’s the big picture in which the gateway ought to be considered.”

He insists the town centre is “vibrant” despite pro-gateway supporters presenting the scheme as a way to regenerate a run-down area blighted by shop closures.

Read more:

• Harrogate business survey reveals opposition to Station Gateway
• £11.2m Station Gateway set to go ahead after crucial Harrogate area vote

He also accused Conswrvative-run North Yorkshire Council of not defending the scheme rigorously enough. He says:

“There have been all kinds of concerns and indeed some misinformation about it and, quite frankly, the council hasn’t done a great job at countering some of the misinformation.”

Andrew Jones in Harrogate

What misinformation? He mentions claims traffic will back-up to Ripley and that the scheme is a form of back-door Big Brother by increasing CCTV. He says:

“If I look at the scheme, as a whole, I think improvements to the street scene in the area are welcome. The focus on integrated public transport is also welcome. And the cycle paths are properly segregated, providing more safety for cyclists, which is probably a good thing too.”

Does he cycle?

“No. I live right in the town centre, I walk everywhere.”

He adds he “much prefers the train” to driving but this has been compromised by recent train strikes.

Many businesses oppose the gateway and a recent Harrogate District Chamber of Commerce survey generated three times more responses opposed to the scheme than in favour. Are they wrong?

“I’ve had comments from businesses that have been both for and against.”

Sewage and the River Nidd

With the owner of Knaresborough Lido

Mr Jones is leading a high profile campaign alongside the Nidd Action. Group to achieve designated bathing water status on the River Nidd at Knaresborough Lido, which would oblige agencies to clean-up the river.

The Lib Dems have criticised the government’s record on tackling the state of rivers. Mr Jones says:

“This is the first government in British history which has sought to improve and tackle the sewage overflows so I don’t think the political blame game improves water quality. Positive action does.”

Two hundred people have volunteered to help monitor Nidd usage at the Lido. Mr Jones says:

“This weekend sees the start of the bathing water season and also sees start of surveying at the Lido.”

How confident is he the campaign will achieve bathing water status and will it happen this year?

“I am always confident and always travel hopefully. It’s too early to say about timings. All I can say is this will have full energy from me.”

Harrogate town council concerns

North Yorkshire is undergoing its biggest political upheaval for half a century.

Harrogate Borough Council was abolished at the end of March and a mayor for York and North Yorkshire is likely to be elected next year.

Mr Jones supported devolution but preferred the east-west model that lost out. Was he sorry to see Conservative-controlled Harrogate Borough Council, whose council leader Richard Cooper is his office manager, disappear?

“I did have a bit of a pang when the council finished. I spent two terms as a councillor in Harrogate and I thoroughly enjoyed it. I thought we got a lot done.”

He says the big issue now is ensuring local voices are heard at Northallerton, where North Yorkshire Council is based.

Read more:

• Second consultation to be held on whether to form Harrogate town council
• Zoë Metcalfe confirms bid to become North Yorkshire’s first mayor

He sounds far from convinced about a Harrogate town council, which looks set to be created next year, adding another layer of council tax.

Mr Jones again seems unimpressed by North Yorkshire Council’s approach, which has involved consulting on whether people support a town council without specifying what its powers will be. He says:

“Creating a public body and then worrying about what it will have responsibility for is the wrong way to approach the question.

“Those supporting it need to articulate a vision of what it will do, how much it will cost and why it should be supported and why it’s different to the area constituency committee.”

Won’t stand for mayor

Mr Jones flatly ruled himself out of the race to become mayor. “I am not putting my name forward,” he says.

Zoe Metcalfe, the Conservative North Yorkshire Police Fire and Crime Commissioner has put her name forward — will he support her?

“It’s early days so we’ll see. I don’t doubt there will be a lot of interest in the position.”

What about Richard Cooper, who he was worked alongside effectively since the 1990s? Mr Jones says Mr Cooper understands how the political systems and structures work and how to get things done, adding:

“If he wants to put his name forward he was a very effective leader at the council but I think he has already said he has retired from seeking elected office. I think he’s ruled himself out.”

1,000 items of correspondence a week

Mr Jones receives 1,000 items of correspondence each week.

Mr Jones, who employs six staff at his constituency office on East Parade in Harrogate, receives about 1,000 pieces of correspondence a week.

He travels to London late on Sunday or early Monday and returns for constituency work on Thursday evening.

Mr Jones, who opposed Brexit, is regarded as being more on the centre ground of the Conservatives than some. Does he agree with the strong language used by Home Secretary Suella Braverman on immigration? He says:

“Immigration is something that brings out very strong feelings but not in a good way. Some of the language used on all sides of this debate is regrettable.”

One of Mr Jones’ pre-local election newsletters didn’t mention he was a Conservative. Why?

“There was no plan behind that. I think everybody knows I am the Conservative MP.”

Cricket and classical music

Born in Ilkley, Mr Jones father worked in the textile industry in Bradford, and he attended the town’s grammar school.

A party loyalist, he is sometimes described as amiable but bland. Is this fair?

“People should just look at what we’ve actually got done. I think there is merit in civilised discussion and debate. Those who shout loudest aren’t always shouting wisely.

“I don’t think it’s bland in the slightest. I’ve been hugely enthusiastic about what I’ve been doing and managed to get enormous amounts done locally and also on a national basis.”

He cites improved rail services first when asked to name what he’s most proud of.

“If we just look at the rail services we had in our area when I became a MP. Now we have more services, later services, faster services, newer services, new rolling stock, London trains – direct services I’m talking about there – these refurbished stations. These are significant changes.

“We have electric buses in the area and more on the way.”

And his biggest regret or disappointment?

“Interesting question. If I look at our area I look around and I see high performing public services both in education and in health. What would be a disappointment? I’m not sure really.”

Away from politics, he has been a member of Yorkshire County Cricket Club since his Leeds University student days 40 years ago.

He hopes to attend a couple of days of the Ashes Headingley Test and “get to a couple of county matches as well”. He enjoys classical music and says Beethoven and Mahler are “high on the list” but describes himself as a musical “omnivore”.

He also likes reading and walking in the Yorkshire Dales. But with the election approaching, his spare time is likely to be in short supply.

Andrew Jones will stand to be MP for the Harrogate and Knaresborough constituency for a fifth time, the Conservative party has confirmed.

The announcement follows a meeting of the Harrogate and Knaresborough Conservative Association’s executive committee last night.

There, Mr Jones spoke to party activists and took questions, before a secret ballot selected him as the party’s candidate once again.

After the meeting, in a statement on his website, Community News, he said:

“It is a real privilege to represent the area where I have lived since the 1990s. I have never wanted to represent anywhere else and have never stood for any other parliamentary seat.

“My approach has always been to speak up for our area first, to be active for the community in which I live and to be positive in my campaigns.”

Mr Jones was first elected in 2010, beating the late Liberal Democrat Claire Kelley by just 1,039 votes, following the retirement of long-standing Lib Dem MP Phil Willis.

He increased his majority to more than 16,000 in 2015, and 18,000 two years later. At the last general election in late 2019, it fell to 9,675, though he still polled his second-highest number of votes, at more than 29,000.

Read more:

• Lib Dems confirm Harrogate and Knaresborough candidate for next election
• Green Party chooses man to fight Andrew Jones in Harrogate and Knaresborough

The next election will have to be held by January 28, 2025.

Mr Jones will face Tom Gordon of the Liberal Democrats, and Paul Ko Ferrigno for the Green Party. Labour has yet to declare a candidate in the race.

When asked in January whether Mr Jones would be standing again, a spokesperson for the Harrogate and Knaresborough Conservative Association said:

“I think I must have missed something… is there a general election? I am able to confirm that the MP for Harrogate and Knaresborough is Andrew Jones.”

This week, reflecting on his 13 years in politics on his website, Mr Jones said:

“I’m really not interested in US-style attack politics where people drag one another down all the time. Where we have differences we should challenge one another respectfully and constructively. It saddens me that too often in local and national politics this doesn’t happen.

“I will keep campaigning for the things people here tell me our area needs building on the successes of the past 13 years. We have more trains to and from London, more services to Leeds and York, the pacers have gone, we have a largely electric bus fleet, our public buildings are being de-carbonised, we have new leisure facilities being built, more electric vehicle charging points are on the way, there is sustained low unemployment and over 10,000 new trees have been planted in the constituency.

“This is only a flavour of our progress locally. There is more to do and none of these things happen because of any one person. They happen because residents, community groups, councillors and the Member of Parliament work together to make them happen. Residents can be assured that my ongoing commitment to those community partnerships is genuine because this is my community too.

“It is an honour to be given the chance to serve our community again.”

This week’s photograph was taken by Helena Jakuba, capturing a perfect reflection over the river Nidd in Knaresborough.

Helena Jakuba

Photo of the Week celebrates the Harrogate district. It could be anything from family life to capturing the district’s beauty. We are interested in amateur and professional photographs, in a landscape format.

Send your photographs to letters@thestrayferret.co.uk for a chance to be featured next week, we reserve the right to adjust and crop images to fit into our format.

After a process lasting eight months, the Liberal Democrats have finally named Tom Gordon as their candidate to wrestle Harrogate and Knaresborough off the Conservatives at the next general election.

Mr Gordon, who turns 29 today, is less than half the age of Andrew Jones, the current MP, but has already packed a lot into his short political career. He has stood twice for Parliament, led the Liberal Democrats on Wakefield Council and supported Judith Rogerson in her campaign to unseat Mr Jones at the last election in 2019.

But does he have the experience and nous to defeat a seasoned politician like Mr Jones, who will be going for his fifth success in a row? Mr Jones has achieved more than 50% of the vote at the last three elections, turning a constituency held by Liberal Democrat Phil Willis from 1997 to 2010 back into a safe Conservative seat.

With Paul Ko Ferrigno named as the Green Party candidate, and Labour yet to declare, there is the possibility of all the main parties selecting white men. Mr Gordon’s youth gives him some point of difference, which he acknowledges could be advantageous but he says the main reason people should vote for him is because he would stand for “fairness and equality” while Mr Jones, he claims, is a party stooge with a “record of shame”.

But what kind of candidate are local people getting — and how well does he know Harrogate and Knaresborough?

Mr Gordon, who is from Knottingley in West Yorkshire and is the Lib Dem leader on Wakefield Council, was chosen by party members ahead of Knaresborough campaigner Matt Walker.

Mr Jones was quick to express surprise, telling the Harrogate Advertiser (he does not speak to the Stray Ferret) he felt Mr Walker’s local roots made him a “shoo-in”.

Mr Gordon, who is moving to a flat in Harrogate next month, says it was a “lazy attack line” and points out Mr Jones is also originally from West Yorkshire having been born in Ilkley and educated in Bradford and Leeds.

Mr Gordon is keen to highlight his familiarity with Harrogate and Knaresborough, having helped Ms Rogerson in 2019, and at pains to explain he is only from “20 miles down the M1”. But he did not answer when asked to name the manager of Harrogate Town, although he talked enthusiastically about Knaresborough Bed Race.

From disengaged student to Lib Dem activist 

His introduction to politics began by chance as a student in 2014 when he was on a train to London and got talking to the woman opposite, who happened to be the Lib Dem peer Baroness Harris of Richmond.

“She gave me her business card and said ‘if there is anything I can ever do, just get in touch’. At that point it’s fair to say I was slightly disengaged with politics.”

He dropped her a line and ended up becoming a parliamentary intern at the House of Lords aged 20.

But his mother’s diagnosis with breast cancer, the day before he started a masters degree in 2016, was the key moment.

“My mum is a single parent and my little sister was five. I dropped down to part-time study to go home and help.

“Mum arranged to have chemo on Friday nights so she could be ill over the weekend because she couldn’t afford to live off statutory sick pay.

“Seeing mum work a minimum wage job, trying to cover the mortgage and bills, and trying to deal with fighting cancer was an eye-opener. When people have to schedule their chemo around work, that’s not the country I want to live in.”

Mr Gordon in Knaresborough

He says Labour politicians, utterly dominant in his area, had taken local people for granted, safe in the knowledge of re-election. By contrast he says the Lib Dems empower people by giving them the tools to build a better future.

He joined the party in 2017 and stood in Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford at the 2019 general election, finishing fourth behind Labour big beast Yvette Cooper with 6.5% of the vote. The Lib Dems polled 5.1% at the previous election. In 2021 he polled 3.3% in the Batley and Spen by-election to finish fourth behind Labour. George Galloway was third.

Harrogate and Knaresborough is his first serious chance of victory. The Lib Dems increased their share by 12% in 2019 to almost halve Mr Jones’s majority. Mr Gordon says it “was one of the few success stories we had on the night” and “put us in a place where we can think about winning” at the next election, which is likely to be next year.

Why does he think Mr Jones has been so successful?

“We are not under any illusion that as an area there are a lot of demographics in favour of the Conservative Party. But what we do know is there is a route to winning here. We have held the seat before under Phil Willis and feel we can do again.”

Read more:

• Lib Dems confirm Harrogate and Knaresborough candidate for next election
• Liberal Democrats win Masham and Fountains by-election

Mr Gordon cites NHS funding, apprenticeships and championing small- and medium-sized businesses as priorities. Brexit, he says, has “eaten up the oxygen in the room” and won’t feature prominently in campaigning.

But what about local issues — does he think nearly £50 million should be spent refurbishing Harrogate Convention Centre?

He says the long-term future of the convention centre needs to be secured but is less sure about the £11.2 million Harrogate Station Gateway scheme that has divided the town:

“There are strong views for and against it. I haven’t made up my mind yet.”

Pavement politics

Mr Gordon says his political heroes are mainly Americans, particularly Hillary Clinton, but also singles out former Lib Dem leader Tim Farron, explaining:

“Pavement politics and grassroots activism upwards is the best of the Lib Dems and Tim epitomises that.”

It’s a style he intends to copy:

“People should expect to see someone who will be on their doorsteps, who will be at community events and leading from the front and championing Harrogate and Knaresborough and demanding better than what we’ve got from the Tories. I am energetic and dynamic and very happy to roll up my sleeves and get stuck in.”

Mr Gordon’s varied professional career includes spells as an estate agent and in recruitment. He’s currently a part-time policy and external affairs officer for the Carers Trust charity and the office manager for Helen Morgan, the Lib Dem MP for North Shropshire — a role he will soon relinquish.

He also plans to stand down as a Wakefield councillor in May, having been elected at the age of 25.

Away from work, he has run several marathons for charity and enjoys swimming and badminton. He has a degree in biochemistry and a masters in public health.

He has certainly not been idle in his 20s. He says:

“I’m an ambitious person. I’m very driven. If I set my mind to something, I tend to achieve it.”

As for Mr Jones, the politicking has begun.

“I met him once briefly in passing at a media event. One of the things local people have said is that Andrew does like to turn up to have his photo taken where possible. They don’t tend to say much else.”

If elected, what difference would it make to local people?

“The key point will be that I’m not going to endlessly trudge through the lobbies as the government says, I’m going to be a strong voice for what local people want.

“He has a record of shame quite frankly, whether it be voting to let water companies get away with discharging sewage into rivers or voting for all sorts of horrendous policies this government has concocted over the last few years — he’s got one of the highest records of following that government whip.

“I will put the people of Harrogate and Knaresborough first — not the Tory Party.”

The first shots have been fired as the election countdown draws near.

The Liberal Democrats have chosen Tom Gordon as their prospective parliamentary candidate in Harrogate and Knaresborough at the next general election.

The selection was confirmed at the local party’s annual dinner last night, following a ballot of its members in January.

Mr Gordon has campaigned for the Liberal Democrats around the country and supported Judith Rogerson in Harrogate and Knaresborough at the last general election.

He works as an advisor for a national carers charity, was born and raised in Yorkshire, and previously stood for the Lib Dems in the Batley and Spen by-election in 2021.

In a statement the Lib Dems said Mr Gordon had stood up for local health services, fought for Yorkshire devolution and for better transport links across the region.   The party said he would be “running a passionate campaign to improve health services, tackle sewage and uncleanliness in our local environment and fighting for infrastructure and investment into our local services”.

Mr Gordon stood against Lib Dem Knaresborough West councillor Matt Walker in the contest.

The selection process has been lengthy for the party, having initially begun last June. It was abandoned two months later when the constituency was made a “target seat” by the national party.

Phil Willis, Lib Dem MP for Harrogate and Knaresborough from 1997 until 2010, welcomed Tom Gordon’s selection:

“Tom would make a fantastic Member of Parliament for Harrogate and Knaresborough. I have seen first hand how passionate he is about delivering change for local people across the region and know he will be a strong voice standing up for the constituency.

“Across the country, people are turning to the Liberal Democrats to oust out of touch Conservative MPs. People are fed up with being taken for granted by the Conservative party and I’ve heard this loud and clear from people across Harrogate and Knaresborough.”

Tom Gordon said:

“I am truly honoured to have been selected as the Liberal Democrat candidate for Harrogate and Knaresborough. As your next MP, I will fight tirelessly to give local people a strong voice, both here and in Westminster.

“This is a beautiful and iconic part of the country with a strong sense of community. We need an independent voice who will listen to concerns and stand up for local people.

“People tell me our area deserves a fair deal. I’ll be the candidate that champions our area, standing up for local health services, tackling sewage in our rivers and demanding action on the cost of living crisis.

“Residents in our area deserve better than chaos and incompetence that we see in Westminster at the moment. At the next election here, it will be a choice between four more years of a Conservative government taking them for granted or a Liberal Democrat MP being your local champion.”

Read more:

• ‘Questions to ask’ about Lib Dem candidate selection, says party activist
• Conservatives select candidate for crucial Masham and Fountains by-election

The Green Party is the only other party to have announced its PPC for Harrogate and Knaresborough.

Paul Ko Ferrigno has lived in Harrogate since 2007 and is involved in several community football teams as well as being a governor at Oatlands Junior School.

Meanwhile, the local Labour party has been going through the national selection procedure to find its candidate.

The Conservatives have not yet confirmed whether current MP Andrew Jones will stand to be elected in the constituency for the fifth time since 2010.

There has been no word on candidates for parties in Skipton and Ripon, where Julian Smith has been the Conservative MP since 2010.

The Selby and Ainsty Conservative MP, Nigel Adams, has already announced he will stand down at the next election.

His seat looks likely to be broken up in the constituency shake-up being carried out by the Boundary Commission, though this will not be confirmed until later in the year.

A general election must be held by January 24, 2025, at the latest.

John Chadwick

The Liberal Democrats have named the final two candidates in the running to stand for the party in Harrogate and Knaresborough at the next election.

Local councillor Matt Walker and party campaigner Tom Gordon will be on the ballot paper when the final vote takes place, ending on January 30.

The winning candidate will be introduced as the prospective parliamentary candidate (PPC) at the constituency’s annual dinner on February 4.

Mr Walker was elected to represent Knaresborough West on North Yorkshire Council last May. He works for the NHS and has managed A&E at Harrogate District Hospital, as well as the out-of-hours GP service for North Yorkshire. He grew up and went to school in Harrogate and Knaresborough.

Mr Gordon has campaigned for the Liberal Democrats around the country, including supporting Judith Rogerson in Harrogate and Knaresborough at the last general election. He was born and raised in Yorkshire and previously stood for the Lib Dems in the Batley and Spen by-election in 2021.

The selection process has been long and drawn out for the party. It initially began last June, but was abandoned two months later when the constituency was made a ‘target seat’ by the national party.

Writing to local party members to reflect on the last year, Harrogate and Knaresborough party chairman David Goode said the North Yorkshire elections last May had been very successful for the Liberal Democrats.

He added:

Harrogate and Knaresborough MP Andrew Jones has denied voting in favour of fracking in the House of Commons last week.

An opposition Labour motion was put to the house which would have forced a vote on a bill to ban the controversial practice in the UK.

Mr Jones voted with the government on the night against the motion.

In his latest ‘Fact Check Friday’ video on Instagram, Mr Jones denied he voted in favour of fracking.

He said:

“Contrary to what some people would have you believe, I didn’t vote in favour of fracking during the debate in parliament this week.

“In fact, the vote wasn’t even directly about fracking at all. The vote was about changing the scheduled timetable of parliamentary business to allow the Labour Party to bring in a bill about fracking.

“A bill that hasn’t even been published.”

Read more:

• Andrew Jones MP launches ‘non-political’ fact-checking service
• Harrogate district MPs back government amid chaotic fracking vote

The government won by 319 votes to 228 – however the night descended into chaos amid allegations Tory MPs were “bullied and manhandled” into supporting former Prime Minister Liz Truss.

Mr Jones goes on to say in the video he is “relaxed” about the government’s position on fracking as there is “little possibility of any successful applications to frack”.

He adds that he has “always been skeptical about fracking” and that the UK’s future energy should be in renewables.

The video, which Mr Jones says includes “no politics”, goes onto show a clip of the then Liberal Democrat energy secretary, Sir Ed Davey, saying that the government had to find a “commercially viable way” to get shale gas out of the ground.

The clip then cuts to an image of Mr Jones and the hashtag ‘awks’, suggesting it reveals an awkward truth for the Lib Dems.

The Liberal Democrats could take Harrogate and Knaresborough off the Conservatives at the next general election if people vote tactically, a poll suggests.

The New Statesman published an article today about the impact of tactical voting at the next election.

The findings are based on questions put to 2,500 voters a week ago by polling company Redfield & Wilton Strategies.

It forecasts tactical voting would lead to a Labour landslide and reduce the Conservatives to just eight seats in northern England — with Mr Jones among the victims.

Data by New Statesman and Redfield & Wilton Strategies

The article says Conservative Andrew Jones is currently set to win in Harrogate and Knaresborough for the fifth consecutive time, taking 35% of the vote compared with 32% for the Liberal Democrats and 25% for Labour.

But with tactical voting, the Liberal Democrats would win with 42% compared with 37% for Mr Jones. Labour’s vote would slump to 13%.

The figures are extrapolated from YouGov polling in May, which revealed 50% of Labour voters would consider voting for the Liberal Democrats — but just 13% would consider voting for the Conservatives. The article says:

“Tactical voting would see some voters switch to the Conservatives, without doubt, but the overwhelming majority who would change their vote would change it against them.”

Applied nationally, both for Con-Lib marginal seats and Con-Lab marginal seats, three to four dozen seats would change hands.

The Conservatives would win just 117 seats overall, the Liberal Democrats would win 41 and Labour would end up with 408 seats.

Read more:

• Sir Ed Davey: Lib Dems will target Harrogate and Knaresborough as key seat
• Andrew Jones MP launches ‘non-political’ fact-checking service

The article warns:

“These types of polling questions come with a health warning about hypothetical data, but they can aid us in modelling the next election.

“They let us look at seats where the Lib Dems are in second and gauge how many Labour voters might switch to help them over the line.”

The Liberal Democrats upgraded Harrogate and Knaresborough to a target seat this year, which prompted the selection process for its next prospective parliamentary candidate to be restarted.