The Harrogate district could be set to get its first ever Labour MP when voters turn out for the Selby and Ainsty by-election next week, according to an opinion poll. 

The survey by JL Partners reveals Labour could win a landslide victory on July 20 in the traditionally Tory constituency, with 41% of the vote – up 16 points on the last election.

No Labour MP has ever represented any of the Harrogate district constituencies: Harrogate and Knaresborough, Skipton and Ripon, and Selby and Ainsty.

The poll has the Conservatives on 29% (down 31 percentage points on last general election), Reform UK on 8% (+8), the Lib Dems on 6% (-3), the Greens on 6% (+3), the Yorkshire Party on 4% (+1), and the others on 6% (+6). 

A Labour victory – which political analysts Electoral Calculus sees as a 66% probability – would be a remarkable upset in a constituency it has never before won.

Selby and Ainsty has been held by the Conservatives since its creation in 2010, with MP Nigel Adams increasing his share of the vote at successive elections from 49% in 2010 to 60% at 2019. 

Labour candidate Keir Mather, 25, would become the youngest current MP if he wins.

A Labour spokesperson told the Stray Ferret:  

“It will be a mammoth task to overturn a 20,000 Conservative majority, and the biggest Labour has achieved since the end of the Second World War.  

“Labour’s Keir Mather is speaking to hundreds of voters on the doorstep who want change, and for him to be their MP and a strong voice fighting on their behalf in Westminster.” 

A Conservative Party spokesperson told the Stray Ferret the party never comments on opinion polls.

Cabinet minister Nigel Adams was a Boris Johnson loyalist and stepped down last month after his name did not appear on Mr Johnson’s retirement honours list. The constituency has been unrepresented at Westminster since then. 

Read more:

• ‘Two in three chance’ Conservatives will lose Selby & Ainsty
• Tories select replacement candidate for Selby and Ainsty by-election
• Selby and Ainsty MP resigns with immediate effect

The Harrogate district is mainly represented by the MP for Harrogate and Knaresborough, but large areas fall within other constituencies.

The vast Selby and Ainsty constituency includes Huby, Follifoot and Spofforth, as well as several villages in the Vale of York, including Great Ouseburn, Green Hammerton, Kirk Hammerton and Tockwith. Its main towns are Selby, Tadcaster and Sherburn-in-Elmet, and at its southern end it includes Drax power station and reaches nearly as far as Goole and Doncaster.

The Harrogate and Knaresborough constituency has only ever been held by the Tories and Liberal Democrats, and Skipton and Ripon has only ever been held by the Conservatives. The Selby and Ainsty constituency was formed from the Vale of York constituency – which was perennially Conservative – and the Selby constituency, which swung from Conservative to Labour. 

Mother Shipton’s Cave in Knaresborough has been forced to delay its reopening again after heavy flooding caused a landslide onto a path.

The famous tourist attraction was due to reopen this weekend after clearing up the debris from recent floods but has now had to delay its reopening for a second time until March 19.

The “slight landslide” has fallen onto Beech Avenue, which is the site of some of the oldest and tallest beech trees in the country, from a bank above.

The landslide has left the well-trodden footpath, which runs from the steps used to access the petrifying well to the entrance of the museum, impassable. Therefore the decision has been taken to delay reopening for another week until the footpath can be made safe.

Jay Stelling, marketing coordinator, said supporting structures were installed last year to prevent damage like this but the strength of the recent storms meant the landslide couldn’t be avoided, adding:

“Our maintenance team had been attempting to clear the pathway and put plans in place to prevent further problems with landslides while we were closed during the winter.

“To rectify this issue permanently we are waiting on permission from the council to gain access above Beech Avenue to assess and establish the remedial work required in order to prevent this problem in the future.”

Read more:

• Knaresborough Bed Race extend entry period due to low numbers
• Bid to open scuba diving pool in Knaresborough

Ms Stelling said the slope had experienced a “noticeable shift” in recent years due to climate change. She added:

“We are devastated that this is the case and we are doing everything we can to get the site safe and on top form to welcome back visitors.”

The attraction will open on weekends from March 19 and on weekends and weekdays from April.

Two objections have been lodged against land orders for a £60 million reroute of the A59 at Kex Gill.

North Yorkshire County Council published plans in August to purchase 90 acres of land to build the new route.

A diversion is planned west of Blubberhouses on the A59 at Kex Gill, which has been blighted by a history of landslides and a recent “instability issue” which cost the council £1.4 million.

The council needs to acquire the land before it can begin construction.

County council officials have confirmed to the Stray Ferret that two objections have been submitted against its side road orders. which are designed to buy private land in order to carry out the project.

However, authority bosses say they believe they can resolve the disputes.

Karl Battersby, corporate director, business and environmental services at the county council, said:

“We are in the procurement process and are working through the statutory processes.

“We have received two objections to the side road orders that we are confident we can resolve.

“All statutory processes need to be concluded before we can secure the funding from the Department for Transport and award the contract.”

Read More: 

• Highways boss confident Kex Gill reroute will avoid inquiry
• Public inquiry could delay £60m Kex Gill scheme by 15 months
• A59 Kex Gill ‘instability issue’ cost council £1.4 million

Cllr Don Mackenzie, executive member for access at the county council, told the Stray Ferret this month that a “substantial objection” could trigger a public inquiry.

However, he added that he did not “see it as a severe risk” and was confident that the council could avoid an inquiry.

In a statement given to a full council meeting in July, Cllr Mackenzie warned that if a public inquiry was required then work could be delayed by up to 15 months.

Council officials said they wanted to come to an agreement with landowners over the price of land, rather than acquire it by a compulsory purchase order.

Construction of the scheme is expected to take 18 months.