The Liberal Democrats would win Harrogate and Knaresborough if a general election was held tomorrow, according to polling firm YouGov.
The company has published modelling based on 64 ‘blue wall’ Conservative-Liberal Democrat battleground seats.
The seats were chosen because they were won by the Conservatives at the 2019 general election but the Liberal Democrats received above 20% of the vote.
YouGov predicts the Conservatives would retain 38 seats, the Liberal Democrats would win 24 and Labour would win two.
Among those forecast to fall is Andrew Jones’ seat, which he won with a majority of 9,675 in 2019, relegating the Liberal Democrats to second.
YouGov predicts the Liberal Democrats would get 43% of the vote in Harrogate and Knaresborough, compared with 39% for the Conservatives and 9% for Labour.
It comes days after Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey pledged to make Harrogate and Knaresborough a target seat during a visit to Harrogate.
The polling says the Conservatives would also lose seats belonging to deputy prime minister Dominic Raab and former leadership contender Jeremy Hunt to the Liberal Democrats.
The company said in a statement:
“Although constituencies would fall to the Liberal Democrats all across the country, including Harrogate and Knaresborough in the north and South Cambridgeshire in the east, perhaps the most striking losses come in the south west, where we estimate that the Conservative vote share is down by over 16 points on 2019.
“Many more Conservative seats are close to being flipped: no fewer than 11 of the 38 predicted holds would be retained by a margin of less than five points. “
Read more:
- Andrew Jones MP writes to Priti Patel about ‘law-breaking’ Travellers
- Sir Ed Davey: Lib Dems will target Harrogate and Knaresborough as key seat
The only Con-Lib Dem battlegrounds region where Labour have increased their vote share on 2019 is in London, where they are up by three points.
In all other regions their vote share in these battleground seats is down – despite Labour’s vote intention being around six to nine points higher than the 32% they managed at the last election.
Keith Tordoff launches police commissioner campaign in Harrogate
Pateley Bridge man Keith Tordoff held a media launch in Harrogate this morning for his campaign to become the next North Yorkshire Police, Fire and Crime Commissioner.
Mr Tordoff, who is standing as an Independent candidate, said he was the man to regain people’s trust after the resignation of Philip Allott.
His manifesto is based on the slogan “safer streets for all”. He said he would find ways to protect vulnerable people and increase public confidence in the police and fire services.
Mr Tordoff said he wanted officers to spend more time on foot talking to people and look at how police deal with areas of persistent anti-social behaviour.
Speaking to the Stray Ferret, he said:
“It is very important that we give people confidence that we have safer streets for all. There’s plenty we need to do to achieve this, to show we’re listening to them and doing something about it.”
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Mr Tordoff served as a police officer in Leeds for 20 years and said this set him apart from the other candidates, and would enable him to find practical ways to bring improvements.
Besides working for the police, Mr Tordoff, who has won the support of the Yorkshire Party, also has a business background having served as chairman of Nidderdale Chamber of Trade and owned the sweet shop in Pateley Bridge.
He added:
“North Yorkshire needs strong leadership that can work with everyone, that’s why I’m independent.”
Election on November 25
The commissioner’s role is to hold the county’s chief constable and chief fire officer to account.
The by-election will take place on November 25. Applications to vote by post must be submitted by 5pm on Wednesday 10th, while proxy vote applications must be entered by 5pm on Wednesday 17th.
Mr Tordoff finished third when the role was last contested in May. Turnout then was 25%.
He is standing again following the resignation of Mr Allott in the wake of comments made about the murder of Sarah Everard.
The full list of candidates is:
Hannah Barham-Brown, Women’s Equality Party
James Barker, Liberal Democrats
Zoë Metcalfe, Conservatives
Emma Scott-Spivey, Labour
Keith Tordoff, Independent