The Conservatives would retain Harrogate and Knaresborough while Labour could gain Selby and Ainsty if a general election were held tomorrow.

According to Electoral Calculus, a political forecasting company, Andrew Jones MP would win a fifth successive election in Harrogate.

Meanwhile, Labour would unseat the Tories in Selby and Ainsty, which includes areas of rural Harrogate, and Julian Smith, Skipton and Ripon MP, would retain his seat for the Conservatives but in a far closer contest.

Electoral Calculus uses past voting figures, polling trends and party support to predict the average outcome of seats in the House of Commons.

The chances of winning seats in Parliament has become particularly pertinent as a by-election looms in Selby and Ainsty next month and a general election is lined up for next year.

The Conservative campaign in Selby and Ainsty was thrown into disarray on Friday when its candidate, Michael Naughton, withdrew just days after being selected.

But with by-election fever mounting, we looked at the state of play locally according to Electoral Calculus.

Harrogate and Knaresborough

According to the political forecaster, Andrew Jones has a 67% chance of winning in Harrogate and Knaresborough.

Mr Jones, who has already confirmed he will stand at the next election, currently has a majority of 9,675.

The website says the Liberal Democrats have a 20% chance of winning while Labour, which has yet to name a candidate, is rated 13%.

The figures come as Tom Gordon, Liberal Democrat candidate for the seat, this week called for an election in light of three Conservative MPs resigning last weekend.

However, under an election scenario, the Lib Dems would pick up 28% of the vote - which is down on their 2019 figure of 35.6%.

Meanwhile, Mr Jones' share would drop from 52.6% to 37%.

However, the increase in share of Labour from 9.6% to 24% suggests a split in the vote which paves the way for the Tories to retain the constituency.

Selby and Ainsty

The chances of the Conservatives holding onto Selby and Ainsty in the upcoming by-election look tight, according to Electoral Calculus.

Voters will head to the polls on July 20 after the resignation of Nigel Adams MP last weekend.

Labour announced 26-year-old Keir Mather will fight the by-election for the party.

Michael Naughton was picked to succeed Mr Adams for the Conservatives but withdrew on Friday and a replacement has yet to be named.

The Green Party has chosen Arnold Warneken, who represents Ouseburn on North Yorkshire Council, as its prospective parliamentary candidate.

Electoral Calculus has the contest as a two-horse race, with Labour a 55% chance of winning and the Conservatives 45%.

Such a result would be dramatic given that Mr Adams, who was a former Foreign Office minister, had a majority of 20,137.

Under such a scenario, Labour would increase its vote share from 24.6% at the last election to 39.8%.

Meanwhile, the Tories would fall from 60.3% to 37.9%.

Skipton and Ripon

A similarly tight contest can be found in Skipton and Ripon.

Julian Smith, the former Northern Ireland secretary, currently holds the seat for the Conservatives with a majority of 23,694.

He’s predicted to have a 55% chance of retaining the seat for the party.

Meanwhile, Labour has a 44% chance.

Despite a predicted drop in vote share from 59.5% to 37.5%, Mr Smith would be safe.

The figures, however, also forecast a hike in Labour's share from 19.1% at the last election to 35.5%.

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Read more:

• Tories and Greens name candidates as local by-election looms


• Selby and Ainsty MP resigns with immediate effect


• Labour names candidate for local by-election

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