The upcoming by-election in Selby and Ainsty is the most likely of three in the UK to see a win for the Conservatives, according to bookmakers' odds.

Parliamentary seats in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, and Somerton and Frome, will also be contested on Thursday, July 20.

Statistics from bookmakers' odds, analysed by the Telegraph, reveal the Selby and Ainsty seat is the most likely of the three to remain in Tory hands.

However, it still has a 66% likelihood of being lost to another party or independent candidate.

By comparison, Boris Johnson's former seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip has a 92% likelihood of being lost, and Somerton and Frome – previously held by David Warburton until his resignation after having the whip removed by the party – is rated at 71%.

In Selby and Ainsty, the by-election was triggered by the resignation of Nigel Adams, a close ally of the former prime minister.

He had held the seat since 2010, when it was first formed, and won a majority of just over 20,000 at the last election in 2019.

This time, the Conservative candidate will be Claire Holmes. She will stand against 12 other candidates, including two who have stood in the constituency before: Arnold Warneken for the Green Party and Mike Jordan for the Yorkshire Party.

The full list of candidates is:

• Andrew Philip Gray, Independent


• Claire Holmes, The Conservative Party


• Mike Jordan, Yorkshire Party


• Dave Kent, Reform UK


• Keir Alexander Mather, Labour Party


• Nick Palmer, Independent


• Guy Phoenix, Heritage Party


• Sir Archibald Stanton, The Official Monster Raving Loony Party


• Matt Walker, Liberal Democrats


• Arnold Francis Ignatius Warneken, The Green Party


• John William Waterston, Social Democratic Party


• Luke John Wellock, Climate Party


• Tyler Callum Wilson-Kerr, Independent

Any constituents who have not yet registered to vote have until midnight tonight to do so on the government's website.

It will be the first time voter ID will be required for an election in North Yorkshire. Acceptable forms of ID include photocard driving licences, UK passports, and bus passes for older or disabled people.

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Read more:

• Harrogate man to stand as independent in Selby and Ainsty by-election


• Tories select replacement candidate for Selby and Ainsty by-election

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