What swings are needed to change MPs in the Harrogate district?

In four days' time, voters in the three constituencies which cover the Harrogate district will head to the polls.

Twenty-one candidates will be vying for seats in Harrogate and Knaresborough, Skipton and Ripon and Wetherby and Easingwold.

The polls are predicting a tight race in each constituency.

In Harrogate and Knaresborough and Skipton and Ripon, the Conservatives will be hoping to hold onto seats which they have held for 14 years.

Meanwhile, Wetherby and Easingwold, which is being contested for the first time on Thursday, appears to be going down to the wire between Labour and the Tories, according to polls.

But what would each seat need to change hands on election day? In this piece, we crunch the numbers and assess what outcomes would be required for constituencies to change colours.

Harrogate and Knaresborough

In Harrogate and Knaresborough, the Liberal Democrats have made a concerted effort to target the seat and win it back after 14 years of Tory rule.

Andrew Jones, the Conservative candidate, would make it five election wins in a row should he claim victory on Thursday.

He is currently defending a majority of 9,675.

At the time of writing, polling website Electoral Calculus was predicting that the Liberal Democrats will gain the seat from the Tories.

It would mean that the Lib Dems would require a swing in the region of 10% to win.

The most recent MRP poll from Survation puts the party on 34% share of the vote, while the Conservatives have 31%.

Labour poll at 23.5%, Reform UK at 8.9% and Green Party at 1.5%.

Skipton and Ripon

The contest to win Skipton and Ripon is equally as tight.

Similar to Mr Jones, Conservative Julian Smith is hoping to extend his 14-year hold on the seat.

Multiple recent polls suggest Labour was most likely to unseat in the Tories.

However, different polling companies are predicting different scenarios when it comes to a victor.

Electoral Calculus has frequently predicted a narrow Labour win — although its most recent forecast suggested Reform UK is in the lead — while both Survation and YouGov have opted for the Conservatives.

Mr Smith currently has a significant majority of 23,694. Should Labour win, it would represent a swing of around 20%.

Survation's last MRP polling model predicted the Conservatives would edge the seat with 35% of the vote - Labour would get 31.8%.

Elsewhere, Reform UK would gain 10% of the vote, Liberal Democrats 15.9% and Green Party 5.7%.

Wetherby and Easingwold

The newly created Wetherby and Easingwold seat is another close race.

Given that this general election will be the first time it has been contested, there is no data to estimate a swing.

However, polling companies are predicting that the Conservatives could take the seat in a closely fought contest.

Survation’s polling shows the Tories winning the seat with 38.9% estimated vote share.

Labour come in second with 36.3%, while the Green Party, which is targeting the seat, would receive 16.6%.

The Liberal Democrats would poll 6.8% and Reform UK 0.4%.

Thank you for reading this article. Next week the Stray Ferret will become a subscription publication. For less than a pound a week you will be able to access all our content.

Please subscribe and support quality, local journalism - to find out more click here.