Editor's Election Diary: Hustings 1, football 0 and Reform surge in Ripon?

With the election less than a week away, where are all the national politicians? So far only the Liberal Democrats have wheeled out a big gun in Harrogate and Knaresborough.

Even that occasion, in which leader Ed Davey visited Harrogate College, was a tightly guarded affair which the Stray Ferret wasn’t invited to. Strange, considering how polls suggest all three seats could be close.

Our hustings in Harrogate and Ripon this week were busy affairs — thanks to readers and candidates alike for turning out on sultry summer evenings. The Harrogate event was the same night as England vs Slovenia — I suspect our event at the Wesley Centre contained more action.

We were greeted by a Gaza protestor at Ripon, where I chaired the event and managed to pour water down my tie but narrowly avoided introducing Andy Brown of the Green Party as Andy Green of the Brown Party. The more I kept reminding myself not to do it, the trickier it became.

Polls can send you doolally at election time. If forecasting website Electoral Calculus is to be believed, Reform UK’s chances of winning in Skipton and Ripon have rocketed from 15% to 57% in a matter of days.

I queried this huge swing with Electoral Calculus, which replied to say one of those MRP ‘mage-polls’ on Wednesday showed a “sub-sample of the poll who are Skipton and Ripon residents showed strong support for Reform”. 

I queried how large this “small sample” and was told the figure was 40. UK Polling Report has Reform’s share of the vote at 14%, and has Tory Julian Smith retaining the seat. Make of that what you will.

Electoral Calculus also says Lib Dem Tom Gordon is almost a shoo-in to win Harrogate and Knaresborough, with a 79% chance. Tory Sir Alec Shelbrooke is given a 59% chance of winning the new Wetherby and Easingworld seat.

All will be revealed on Friday morning...

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