Strayside Sunday is a monthly political opinion column. It is written by Paul Baverstock, former Director of Communications for the Conservative Party.

Well, I didn’t see that one coming. This week, the Daily Mail named our very own Andrew Jones MP as a Tory rebel, joining the growing movement afoot to depose Boris Johnson as leader of his party and, therefore, as Prime Minister.

Never knowingly visible or bold, Andrew’s voice now joins the swelling chorus of Tory MPs who fear for their electoral futures under the current regime. And so they should. This government seems spent of the creative energies needed to address the very serious problems we face, mired as it is in stories about the lawbreaking crimes and misdemeanours of its parliamentary members. From the PM’s Fixed Penalty Notice for attending (just one) of his (many) Number 10 lockdown parties, to the shame of the Sue Gray report into frat house culture at the heart of the heart of the cabinet office, to the jailing of former Wakefield MP Imran Ahmad Khan for sexual assault, to the suspension of yet another, still unnamed Tory for sexual impropriety, a more than faint whiff of sleaze hovers over proceedings. It all feels a little fin de siècle.

Perhaps it’s that which has prompted Andrew Jones to break cover and join the revolution?

Or perhaps it is a rising fear that his rock-solid constituency majority might well be under threat from the yellow peril come the next election? I wrote last time about the success of Harrogate’s Liberal Democrats in May’s local election and remember it isn’t that long ago that Phil Willis was our highly effective and popular MP.  There is a very real prospect that Harrogate will return a Liberal Democrat if the current trajectory of Conservative unpopularity continues up to the next election. No doubt this heady cocktail of prosaic principle and practical calculation lies at the root of Mr. Jones’ belated emergence into the ranks of the Tory rebels.

The fact of the matter is that the good ship Johnson is taking on water apace and listing heavily. Were the economy humming along, were the NHS meeting the demand for its services, were people receiving their new and replacement passports and driving licenses in good time, and were petrol, household energy and budget foods holding their price, then Johnson might have been able to brazenly ride out the Partygate furore and the fact that his deep character flaws have moved from private realm to public sphere. As it is there is every possibility that we are heading toward recession, the new NHS Integrated Care Systems are coming on stream with a requirement to cut their budget deficits even in the face of crippling backlogs and overwhelming demands, the basic wheels of bureaucratic government seem to be gummed at the axle and inflation has hit 10%. Given all this, the Tory party's famed instinct for self-preservation is kicking in and I predict Boris will be out this summer.

The final nail in the coffin is likely to be this month’s by-elections in Wakefield and Tiverton. Both will be seen as bellwethers for the next election. Wakefield was only taken from Labour at the 2019 election with a majority of 3,500, part of Johnson’s Red Wall and proof then of his Heineken quality, reaching those parts other Tories cannot.  Given that Labour is 7 points ahead of the Conservatives in national opinion polls, and given the circumstances of the outgoing MP’s resignation, it looks like divine intervention may be the only way the Conservatives will hold the seat.  Tiverton (in Devon) is a different kettle; it is a seat held only by the Conservatives since the 1880’s. Yet the mood music suggests that the Lib Dems fancy their chances of doing a North Shropshire and indeed they benefit from a much stronger local base in Tiverton (in the form of local council seats). They are throwing the kitchen sink at the campaign and the Tories are wobbling.

If Johnson loses both by-election seats he will then face discontent and attack from both flanks – from the 2019 intake Red Wall Tories that feel they won because of him last time and from more traditional Tories in the South and elsewhere who fear a Liberal Democrat resurgence. In short, from being the Tory that proved he could win everywhere, Johnson will have become the Tory that can’t win anywhere.  And the party won’t wear that. It will see it as its duty to move against Mr. Johnson.

Talking of duty I can’t let this weekend pass without mention of The Queen and her Jubilee. I’m 54, which means the Queen had been on the throne for 16 years even before I was born. Her commitment to serving her country, her integrity, her forbearance and her honour should serve as a lesson to us all. It seems unlikely she’ll be with us for much longer (and who knows what awaits the Royal Family when she is gone), so I for one applaud the celebrations of a grateful nation.

The counterpoint of Her Majesty’s character and behaviour could not be in starker contrast to that of her latest Prime Minister and indeed many of those whose support for him is now in question.

That’s my Strayside Sunday.

Read More:

• Harrogate and Knaresborough MP Andrew Jones MP named as Tory ‘rebel’


• Strayside Sunday: Was it Boris or was it local failure?