Tactical voting could swing Harrogate and Knaresborough to Lib Dems, poll says

The Liberal Democrats could take Harrogate and Knaresborough off the Conservatives at the next general election if people vote tactically, a poll suggests.

The New Statesman published an article today about the impact of tactical voting at the next election.

The findings are based on questions put to 2,500 voters a week ago by polling company Redfield & Wilton Strategies.

It forecasts tactical voting would lead to a Labour landslide and reduce the Conservatives to just eight seats in northern England — with Mr Jones among the victims.

tactical voting poll

Data by New Statesman and Redfield & Wilton Strategies

The article says Conservative Andrew Jones is currently set to win in Harrogate and Knaresborough for the fifth consecutive time, taking 35% of the vote compared with 32% for the Liberal Democrats and 25% for Labour.

But with tactical voting, the Liberal Democrats would win with 42% compared with 37% for Mr Jones. Labour’s vote would slump to 13%.

The figures are extrapolated from YouGov polling in May, which revealed 50% of Labour voters would consider voting for the Liberal Democrats — but just 13% would consider voting for the Conservatives. The article says:

“Tactical voting would see some voters switch to the Conservatives, without doubt, but the overwhelming majority who would change their vote would change it against them.”

Applied nationally, both for Con-Lib marginal seats and Con-Lab marginal seats, three to four dozen seats would change hands.

The Conservatives would win just 117 seats overall, the Liberal Democrats would win 41 and Labour would end up with 408 seats.

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The article warns:

“These types of polling questions come with a health warning about hypothetical data, but they can aid us in modelling the next election.

“They let us look at seats where the Lib Dems are in second and gauge how many Labour voters might switch to help them over the line.”

The Liberal Democrats upgraded Harrogate and Knaresborough to a target seat this year, which prompted the selection process for its next prospective parliamentary candidate to be restarted.

 

Andrew Jones MP launches ‘non-political’ fact-checking service

Harrogate and Knaresborough MP Andrew Jones has started posting fact-check videos on his new Instagram account.

The Conservative MP published his first video, which was about the government’s proposed new investment zones, on Friday.

North Yorkshire County Council is one of 38 local authorities in talks with the government about introducing the zones, in which businesses could benefit from lower taxes and liberalised planning rules.

The RSPB charity has labelled the zones an “unprecedented attack on nature” because of the impact they could have on wildlife.

Introducing the series, Mr Jones says fact-check Friday will be “an occasional series where we just present facts — no politics”.

He then highlights how some people are worried the zones  “will mean concreting over green belt and downgraded environmental standards” but he then adds the the government “has made it clear this isn’t the case”.

The video cuts to footage of new Environment Secretary Ranil Jayawardena saying he is committed to helping farmers curate the countryside. Mr Jones then says:

“Investment zones can take derelict but previously developed sites and transfer them into thriving net zero communities.

“A good example might be the Ripon barracks site. That’s the kind of thing that we should be looking for investment zones to do.”

Mr Jones has 75 followers on Instagram and his video has so far attracted five likes.

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Liberal Democrats and Greens respond

David Goode, chair of Harrogate and Knaresborough Liberal Democrats, said:

“Mr Jones says in his fact-check piece to camera that he will hold the government to account. Let us not forget, he is a Conservative MP, part of the Conservative Party who run the government.

“A government that have just pushed the pound to a record low and caused mortgage chaos for thousands of families. A government that has removed the bankers’ bonus cap at a time when some people can not even afford to put the heating on. Those facts we are dealing with.

“What has Mr Jones done to hold the government to account for this botched mini-budget and its disastrous outcomes?”

Paul Ko Ferrigno, who was named as the Green Party’s prospective parliamentary candidate for Harrogate and Knaresborough last month, said:

“Mr Jones says that he intends to ensure that the government’s proposed investment zones will not lead to a deterioration in environmental protections, so I’d like to work with Mr Jones to ensure that current designated protected sites such as national parks, areas of outstanding national beauty, sites of special scientific interest, designated green belt land and buffer zones that surround world heritage sites in Yorkshire will be protected, and not sacrificed to short term economic pressures.

“The fact that these zones are not explicitly protected under the government proposals is worrying.”

 

Harrogate opposition parties cool on pact as election manoeuvres begin

Liz Truss may have only just entered Downing Street but opposition parties in Harrogate and Knaresborough have begun manoeuvrings for the next general election.

This week the Green Party became the first to name its prospective parliamentary candidate. The Liberal Democrats are expected to follow suit by the end of the year.

Conservative Andrew Jones has won four successive elections in Harrogate and Knaresborough since 2010, securing 53% of the vote at the last campaign in 2019.

The next election is widely expected to take place in 2024 — and some think his biggest threat comes from opposition parties working together rather than splitting the vote. But the early signs are this is unlikely to happen.

There was little appetite for a pact at a Green Party hustings event this week. Paul Ko Ferrigno, the only candidate standing for leadership, insisted he was fighting to win, and even if he didn’t he was more interested in shaping the debate than doing deals.

Asked if he was willing to risk letting the Tories in with this approach, Mr Ko Ferrigno said:

“Yes — but if what I’ve done is shift the conversation so the next time round the Tories are being more green in their approach, more forward in their approach, because of the way we have been campaigning, then that’s OK.”

The Greens still harbour ill feeling from the last election, when their candidate, Shan Oakes, stood down.

Green Party members at hustings

Green Party members at this week’s hustings.

Arnold Warneken, who represents Ouseburn for the Greens on North Yorkshire County Council, told this week’s meeting:

“We had a national agreement with Lib Dems. Shan agreed to stand aside. The problem with that is you have to trust the people you deal with.

“The trust for us has disappeared. That’s not good for a future progressive alliance.”

Cllr Warneken added, however, that a final decision on pacts would be taken locally.

Labour and Lib Dems

The Stray Ferret asked Chris Watt, vice-chair, Harrogate & Knaresborough Labour Party, which took 11% of the vote in 2019, if it would consider an opposition pact. He replied:

“Being a much larger party, Labour operates a national system with local parties making the final decision on their candidate.”

Mr Watt added Harrogate and Knaresborough Labour “have asked to move forward with selecting a candidate as soon as possible”.

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The process to select a Liberal Democrat candidate is being re-run after the national Lib Dems upgraded Harrogate and Knaresborough to a target seat.

David Goode, chair of the Harrogate and Knaresborough Lib Dems, said:
“I’m hoping to have the procedures completed Christmas time.”
The Liberal Democrats achieved 36% of the vote in 2019 and seem best placed to take on Mr Jones. But whoever stands might not be able to rely on the help of opposition parties.
County council set to reject climate change action appeal

North Yorkshire County Council looks poised to dismiss moves by Green and Liberal Democrat councillors to accelerate the response to thr climate change and biodiversity crises, claiming they could be counter-productive.

The council’s Conservative-run executive will consider two environmental notices of motion that councillors were prevented from debating at a full council meeting in July, with the authority’s chairman instead opting to refer the proposals to its cabinet members.

Both motions propose the establishment of a new committee specifically to scrutinise the council’s progress and leadership in tackling climate change and establishing biodiversity plans to ensure oversight of the collective ambition of the council.

Since losing its overwhelming majority at the May elections, the Tory-led council has been facing mounting pressure, particularly from the Liberal Democrat and Green groups, to redouble its climate change and biodiversity efforts and allow opposition councillors to play a greater role in shaping such policies.

An officers’ report to the executive states the creation of a new scrutiny committee would take the number of such forums at the council to seven.

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It adds the council’s scrutiny function is under review as part of the establishment of a new unitary authority and recommendations would be brought before all elected members later this year.

One of the motions also calls for the creation of a new executive member to reflect the scale of the job, but the officers’ report highlights the executive already has the maximum number of members allowed under the county council’s constitution.

Liberal Democrat group leader Cllr Bryn Griffiths, who represents Stokesley, said the officers’ report failed to fully address the high priority and action needed to effectively deal with climate change and the ecological emergency in North Yorkshire.

He said: 

“I think the points we put forward to deal with that are still valid and worthwhile objectives that the council should be taking on board and should be fully debated by the full council.”

The council’s Conservative leader, Cllr Carl Les said the executive’s debate and recommendations to the next full meeting of the authority in November would focus on how the authority could best manage the impacts of climate change.

He said: 

“It is a hugely important issue to us. It seems to me that the Greens and Lib Dems are suggesting we have to have a special executive member and a special scrutiny committee, but we believe the climate change and biodiversity issues cut across everything that we do.

“The approach that we are taking by embedding it into everything we are doing, so every report we produce now examines the climate change impact, is better.”

When asked if the decision to reject specialist climate change roles and groups at the council was politically-fuelled, Cllr Les said: 

“Not at all. All our scrutiny committees have the ability to look at climate change implications.

“If anything they have more influence and control over what we are doing than what is being proposed.”

Andrew Jones MP hits back over sewage vote

Harrogate and Knaresborough MP Andrew Jones has strongly criticised claims that he voted in favour of pumping raw sewage into rivers and the sea.

Mr Jones said in the Conservative run Community News website that the environment was “being weaponised, deliberately, cynically, falsely” and that the claims were “simply a lie.”

Images of raw sewage being pumped into waterways reignited a debate around whether MPs had voted to allow it.

265 Conservative MPs, including Mr Jones, voted to stop Amendment 45 to the Environment Bill in October last year.

The amendment would have forced water companies to reduce the amount of sewage they discharged and pay for its environmental damage.

At the time, he said it had been “poorly planned and drafted”.

He subsequently supported a government amendment to make water companies provide a “costed plan” for how to reduce the amount of sewage.

People boating on the River Nidd at Knaresborough

Nidd concerns

Local criticism has concerned the safety of the River Nidd.

The Stray Ferret reported back in 2020 that it had failed chemical tests and that the water contained unsafe levels of chemical sewage.

More recent data revealed that there were around 1,000 sewage incidents in the river in 2021.

The local Liberal Democrats launched a petition on the issue earlier this year calling for a sewage tax to raise money to clean rivers.

The party’s county councillor for Knaresborough West, Matt Walker, said:

“My colleagues and I have spoken to dozens of parents whose children have become violently ill after swimming in our river, something that should be safe for them to do.

“The Nidd is huge draw for locals and tourists, we need to invest and protect what we have and that means tough action.”

However, Mr Jones argued that the practice of using sewage storm overflow drains had been done for a hundred years.

That, he noted, included when the Lib Dems were in government with the Conservatives.

Knaresborough Liberal Democrat councillors Hannah Gostlow and Matt Walker

To that, cllr Walker responded:

“New figures… show a dramatic increase in the amount of sewage released since 2016 – an increase of 2,553%. An increase under a Conservative Government.”

Shan Oakes, a Green town councillor in Knaresborough, said the town council was planning to apply for designated bathing status for a stretch of the Nidd.

She hoped that it would mean that something had to be done about its poor water quality.

Cllr Oakes blamed the government for the current situation:

“With the current situation where water is privatised, the government does not hold [water companies] to account as it should. The government has decimated the Environment Agency.”

What Yorkshire Water says

Yorkshire Water said sewage is not the only issue which affects river quality and that agriculture, businesses and plastics also have an effect.

The Environment Agency regulates discharges and companies must have permits in place.

In a statement, Yorkshire Water said:

“We know that our storm overflows operate more often than our customers, or we, would like and we’re working hard to make improvements across the region. We’re investing £790m to improve rivers across the region, including £137 million by 2025 to enhance, investigate and increase monitoring on storm overflows.”

The water company made an operating profit of £242 million in 2022.

Lib Dems to restart candidate selection in Harrogate and Knaresborough

The Harrogate and Knaresborough Liberal Democrats are to restart their process to choose a prospective parliamentary candidate.

The party had begun moves to find someone to oppose Conservative Andrew Jones at the next general election.

But the process will be re-run after the national Lib Dems upgraded Harrogate and Knaresborough to a target seat.

Local members participated in a first selection in June and July. But a recent email to party members, seen by the Stray Ferret, said:

“Before the results of our PPC selection had been announced, we were notified that Harrogate and Knaresborough has been recognised as a target seat.

“This is great news and something that the local party executive have been working towards. However, this has implications for the selection of a PPC.”

Conservative Andrew Jones has represented Harrogate and Knaresborough since 2010.

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The letter goes on to say that every PPC in a target seat “must be selected through a more robust selection process” and therefore the current selection process had been “curtailed”.

The email adds further information will be sent in “due course”.

David Goode, chair of the Harrogate and Knaresborough Lib Dems, said

“We have been recognised as a target seat and this is fantastic news. This is the result of months of work by our local campaigners and councillors.

“The local party started the process of selecting a parliamentary candidate earlier this summer. News of their target seat status means the process will now begin again.

“We will have to kick start a new selection process, in line with party rules. This is just something we must do but it will not detract from our campaign. ”

Local election success

At the local elections in May, the party won eight of the 13 North Yorkshire County Council seats in Harrogate and Knaresborough.  It won 11,907 votes compared to the Conservatives’ 11,103.

However, the Tories won 47 of the 90 seats across the county to retain control.

Lib Dems

Jubilant Liberal Democrats in Harrogate and Knaresborough celebrate the local election results.

At the last general election in 2019, the Lib Dems increased their share of the vote in the constituency by 12 percentage points and reduced Conservative Andrew Jones’s majority to 9,675 votes. But Mr Jones has held the seat since 2012.

 

Liberal Democrats call for public vote over North Yorkshire devolution deal

Harrogate and Knaresborough Liberal Democrats have called for a public vote over a £540 million devolution deal which was announced this week.

The historic deal for North Yorkshire and York was signed by government and county council officials on Monday and comes with an elected mayor for the region.

But opposition Liberal Democrat councillors have said residents should be “allowed to make their own decision” over whether to accept the deal.

Cllr Pat Marsh, leader of the party on Harrogate Borough Council, said the agreement concentrated “too much power into the hands of one person”.

She said:

“I have serious reservations about this deal. It’s being framed as devolution – but it is just not. Harrogate and Knaresborough residents lose out. 

“We are not even guaranteed any investment towards the renovation of Harrogate Convention Centre as part of the deal. I do not see how anyone can think the concentration of power into the hands of one person is devolution – the government have created North Yorkshire unitary authority, that is not even up and running yet and they are already pushing for a mayor. 

“We’ve moved from smaller district and borough councils to one enormous unitary authority, and now we’re set to get a mayor ruling over all of us and the City Of York, with more power and less local accountability and scrutiny than any of our councillors or MPs. 

“The mayor will have the authority to impose an additional council tax precept on households and to raise business rates.”

The deal, which was signed by Greg Clark, secretary of state for levelling up, housing and communities, will see the county given £540 million over 30 years.

It will also see a combined authority set up and the creation of a mayor, who is expected to be elected in May 2024.

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Cllr Carl Les, Conservative leader of the county council, described the deal as a “huge opportunity” for North Yorkshire.

He said:

“The chance to secure a wide range of decision-making powers as well as bringing in millions of pounds of investment for North Yorkshire is a huge opportunity for us all to shape our own future for many years to come.

“It will make a real difference to the hundreds of thousands of people who live and work in North Yorkshire, driving future prosperity and much better opportunities that are so important to everyone.

“Whether it is improving skills and education, bringing in more investment to the region or helping improve transport links and providing much-needed affordable housing, the proposed deal would enable us to take far greater control of our own destinies.

“An elected mayor representing both York and North Yorkshire would be a powerful figure to have a seat at the table for further negotiations with the Government, bringing real and tangible benefits to the region.”

Councillors on both North Yorkshire County Council and City of York Council will be given a vote over whether to accept the deal in the coming months.

Opposition councillors raise concern over £540m North Yorkshire devolution deal

Opposition leaders in North Yorkshire have given a mixed reaction to the announcement that a devolution deal has been agreed and have questioned whether the county’s residents will be fairly treated.

With the Tories achieving a narrow majority in May’s elections, opposition councillors say they will hold North Yorkshire County Council’s Conservative administration to account over how the gain-share or extra funding from government is divided between the county and York.

The comments come as a historic 30 year devolution deal was announced by ministers today, which will mean North Yorkshire and York will see an elected Mayor in 2024 with £540 million pounds of government cash.

Leader of the authority’s largest opposition group, the Liberal Democrats and Liberals, Cllr Bryn Griffiths said he had reservations over devolution and the combined authority and mayor that went with it.

He said: 

“The only way to get significant money from the government at the moment it seems is via combined authorities. I don’t think it’s the right way to do things, but it’s left areas without one in between the Devil and the deep blue sea.

“I don’t think mayors are very accountable, but if it gives access to funding it’s a balancing matter between accountability and funding.”

‘Not a great exercise in democracy’

A number of other authority opposition members have similar concerns that devolution has proved to be an intensely political process.

Independent group leader Cllr Stuart Parsons said: 

“It’s worrying in that it’s a political process as that means a change in government in a couple of years’ time could lead to all sorts of problems with it.

“A new government might not want things to work that way, and then the governance rules that appear to be set in place for it would be an absolute farce.”

Cllr Parsons said suggestions that two North Yorkshire and two City of York councillors would form the decision-making body on the combined authority with a mayor would be a blow for democratic representation and democratic decision-making.

He said the councillors on the combined authority would be from a council’s ruling group there would be no “serious political representation on that body”.

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Green Party group coordinator Cllr Andy Brown agreed that devolution “did not appear to be a great exercise in democracy” in the county.

He said:

“Genuine devolution would be a fantastic thing for North Yorkshire. Unfortunately it’s not what is taking place.

“At the moment we have a massive exercise in the centralisation of the district councils into one gigantic council and that council has yet to demonstrate it understands fully democratic processes.

“The critical factor will be not how much power central government delegates to Northallerton, but how much power Northallerton genuinely delegates to its communities.”

Meanwhile, Labour group leader Cllr Steve Shaw Wright said while he believed devolution would benefit North Yorkshire, he was uncertain about the timing.

He said the combination of launching a new unitary authority, starting negotiations with City of York Council and holding mayoral elections was “an awful lot all at once”.

Cllr Shaw Wright said: 

“I know there’s financial benefits, but it’ll not repay what we’ve had cut over the last 10 years.”

He added suggestions that the combined authority would feature just two York and two North Yorkshire councillors was “a recipe for disaster at the worst and deadlock at the best” and that a larger more politically representative decision-making body would be more effective.

Harrogate district MP quizzed on reaction to Tory resignations

The Stray Ferret has approached all three Harrogate district Conservative MPs for their reaction to this evening’s momentous political developments.

Chancellor Rishi Sunak and Health Secretary Sajid Javid have both quit the Cabinet amid a row over the handling of misconduct claims against ex-Deputy Chief Whip Chris Pincher.

Their resignations have sparked frenzied speculation about more Cabinet resignations and whether Boris Johnson will survive as Prime Minister.

We have emailed Andrew Jones, MP for Harrogate and Knaresborough, Julian Smith, MP for Skipton and Ripon and Nigel Adams, MP for Selby with Ainsty, asking for their reaction to the resignations and whether they feel Mr Johnson should resign. None has replied yet.

Julian Smith, MP for Skipton and Ripon, has retweeted Mr Sunak and Mr Javid’s resignation statements. Mr Smith has been critical of the government’s decision to rewrite parts of the Brexit deal.

Mr Jones is not active on social media but he was among the Conservative rebels who voted for Mr Johnson to step down last month.

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Mr Adams, who is minister without portfolio in the Cabinet Office, is regarded as a Johnson loyalist. He last tweeted earlier today about England’s victory over India in the Test match.

David Goode, chair of the Harrogate and Knaresborough Liberal Democrats, told the Stray Ferret:

“Johnson being Johnson will try to. hang on. Until the wider Conservative Party finally make a decision and get rid of him he will stay as long as he can.

“The Andrew Jones’ of this world have to step up and be counted now.”

 

Lib Dems on course to take Harrogate and Knaresborough, says YouGov

The Liberal Democrats would win Harrogate and Knaresborough if a general election was held tomorrow, according to polling firm YouGov.

The company has published modelling based on 64 ‘blue wall’ Conservative-Liberal Democrat battleground seats.

The seats were chosen because they were won by the Conservatives at the 2019 general election but the Liberal Democrats received above 20% of the vote.

YouGov predicts the Conservatives would retain 38 seats, the Liberal Democrats would win 24 and Labour would win two.

Among those forecast to fall is Andrew Jones’ seat, which he won with a majority of 9,675 in 2019, relegating the Liberal Democrats to second.

YouGov predicts the Liberal Democrats would get 43% of the vote in Harrogate and Knaresborough, compared with 39% for the Conservatives and 9% for Labour.

It comes days after Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey pledged to make Harrogate and Knaresborough a target seat during a visit to Harrogate.

The polling says the Conservatives would also lose seats belonging to deputy prime minister Dominic Raab and former leadership contender Jeremy Hunt to the Liberal Democrats.

The company said in a statement:

“Although constituencies would fall to the Liberal Democrats all across the country, including Harrogate and Knaresborough in the north and South Cambridgeshire in the east, perhaps the most striking losses come in the south west, where we estimate that the Conservative vote share is down by over 16 points on 2019.

“Many more Conservative seats are close to being flipped: no fewer than 11 of the 38 predicted holds would be retained by a margin of less than five points. “

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The only Con-Lib Dem battlegrounds region where Labour have increased their vote share on 2019 is in London, where they are up by three points.

In all other regions their vote share in these battleground seats is down – despite Labour’s vote intention being around six to nine points higher than the 32% they managed at the last election.