There was much talk at the last general election about the collapse of Labour’s red wall in its northern heartlands.
Today’s York and North Yorkshire mayoral election was an opportunity to see if the Conservatives’ blue wall of control in England’s largest county was equally wobbly.
It had certainly been creaking: North Yorkshire Council’s Conservative rule is propped up by three independents and Labour’s Keir Mather overturned a large Conservative majority at last year’s Selby and Ainsty by-election.
But surely true blue North Yorkshire, home of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, would deliver some succour to the Tories after a bruising night of local election results?
Curiously, Andrew Jones, the Conservative MP for Harrogate and Knaresborough, was not at Harrogate Convention Centre to support Keane Duncan. His Liberal Democrat rival Tom Gordon, whose mother was re-elected for the Lib Dems in Knottingley and Ferrybridge on Wakefield Council, arrived later in the day to support Felicity Cunliffe-Lister.
Nevertheless activists for both parties turned out in force.
It soon became apparent this was a two-horse race. Ms Cunliffe-Lister said long before the result was declared she hoped to finish a “good third”, acknowledging her party’s lengthy selection process meant she entered the race too late.
Keane Duncan pictured after arriving for the count.
Politicians on all sides leaned towards a Labour victory when we probed but nobody seemed particularly confident. When Conservative Ben Houchen retained the Tees Valley mayoralty, it appeared a good omen and when the turnout was announced at a higher-than-expected 30% it further raised hopes because it suggested Tory voters had not stayed home after all.
Had Mr Duncan’s energetic campaign and machine gun fire of ambitious policy announcements done the trick?
Felicity Cunliffe-Lister
Ms Cunliffe-Lister, Green candidate Kevin Foster and Independents Keith Tordoff and Paul Haslam were happy to talk and mingle but as is often the case at election counts, the favourites were largely invisible. When we approached a local Labour activist for a comment on how it was going, we were hastily marched to a regional media person who was non-committal.
Mr Duncan eventually arrived, with North Yorkshire Council leader Carl Les not far behind. Mr Skaith, looking like he’d been dressed by the same tailor as Labour leader Keir Starmer, was barely seen until the declaration loomed.
Shortly before 2.30pm, an election official briefed the media ‘not to go for a long walk’ as the result was imminent. We were also warned that if it were close — which seemed a distinct possibility — a recount would be held.
The candidates disappeared into a room to be told the results and re-emerged poker faced. But there was a strong clue when a Green politician shook Mr Skaith’s hand.
Mr Skaith’s near 15,000 winning margin was wider than anyone we spoke to predicted. What was even more surprising was that he came within 3,500 votes of beating Mr Duncan in North Yorkshire before his predicted strong support in Labour-run York saw him home.
His supporters whooped while Mr Duncan graciously applauded and patiently gave interviews to a line of journalists.
Had his bold claims, including buying the Grand Hotel at Scarborough, blown up in his face? He claimed not, suggesting the ‘national picture’ was the main factor before insisting he would continue his role as the councillor in charge of highways at North Yorkshire Council. Back to answering questions on the Harrogate Station Gateway…
Two hours after the result, Mr Skaith had hotfooted it to Northallerton Football Club where he stood alongside Mr Starmer and Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves for one of those stage managed media calls in front of an over-excitable crowd of placard-waving supporters. It was a rather bizarre end to a remarkable day.
Mr Starmer hailed it a “victory in Tory heartlands”. A chunk had indeed been taken out of the blue wall. Will it come crashing down in long-term Tory seats Harrogate and Knaresborough, or Skipton and Ripon, at the next general election?
You can recapture all today’s action in our live blog here.
Read more:
- Labour’s David Skaith pledges to ‘get basics right’ as mayor
- Tense day ends in clear victory for Labour’s Harrogate-born mayor
